Commodities Update Wheat prices to plummet by 20% in 2020 We think that a combination of stronger supply, and weaker demand, growth will push the wheat market into a surplus this year. As a result, we expect wheat prices to drop by about 20% in 2020. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC production fell again in December, led once more by Saudi Arabia. We continue to think that OPEC will maintain its production restraint for the remainder of 2020 to support prices. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Our key calls for the agriculturals in 2020 We think that the prices of wheat and soybeans will tumble this year on the back of high stocks. However, the outlook is more encouraging for the prices of some of other agricultural commodities, such... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Devil in the detail of US-China trade deal Oil prices yo-yoed last week, as US-Iran warmongering faded almost as quickly as it started. Similarly, the price of gold spiked, but ended the week unchanged. Meanwhile, the market reaction to the... 10th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2020 We think that oil prices will rise in 2020, as the market moves into a small deficit. In contrast, we expect natural gas prices to fall owing to strong supply growth and for this, in turn, to dampen... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to rise irrespective of the risk premium Following the recent rise in US-Iran tensions, we estimate that the risk premium in the oil price briefly turned positive. After all, prices rose without there being any disruption to the physical... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Natural gas and coal prices to fall further in 2020 The easing of US-China trade tensions and the escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions has caused oil prices to surge in recent weeks. In contrast, the prices of natural gas and coal have slumped... 9th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack December’s moves point to better times ahead The prospect of a ‘Phase One’ trade deal between the US and China buoyed commodity prices in December. Although we expect trade tensions to remain elevated, we think that most commodity prices will... 6th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran tensions to take centre stage Oil prices received a shot in the arm following Friday’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top ranking Iranian general. Regardless of geopolitical events, we expect constrained supply growth and a... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities end the year on a high Most commodity prices rose this week, in part owing to the release of strong Chinese activity data. Lingering optimism following the announcement of a US-China “Phase One” trade deal at the end of... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Nov.) Global steel output dropped in m/m terms in November, led by China. We think that global production will remain weak in the coming months due to softer demand growth and pre-announced output cuts. 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US gasoline demand to fall even with CAFE changes If enacted, we estimate that the Trump Administration’s reported proposals for altering fuel efficiency standards in automobiles will mean that US gasoline consumption will be around 0.3m bpd higher... 18th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Far-fetched promises on US agricultural goods We don’t think that China will import the $40bn of agricultural goods that it has reportedly pledged to buy from the US. As such, the impact on prices should be fairly minimal. 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dodge a bullet Most industrial commodity prices rose this week, as the US and China announced that they had reached a phase-one trade deal. The agreement cancels the tariffs scheduled to come into effect this Sunday... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Rising supply to weigh on natural gas prices Warmer-than-expected weather, amid subdued global economic growth, put downward pressure on the prices of coal and LNG since the start of November. In contrast, the price of oil rose on the back of... 9th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC still has work to do The announcement that OPEC+ will deepen output cuts by 0.5m bpd in the first quarter of 2020 boosted oil prices this week. While the decision means that the market will be a bit tighter next year than... 6th December 2019 · 8 mins read
