Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela’s currency crisis: a primer The collapse in oil prices will cause the economic and financial crisis in Venezuela to deepen over the course of this year. In this Focus we answer a series of key questions that we have received... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Recession to deepen and default likely in 2015 The Venezuelan economy faces a multi-year recession following the recent fall in oil prices. GDPprobably contracted by 3.5% last year and we now suspect that it could decline by another 5.0% thisyear... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Four charts that show Venezuela is in a crisis All of the signs suggest that Venezuela is already suffering an economic crisis, making it highly likely that the government will default on its foreign currency debt. 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Venezuela’s oil problems spill over? Would a sovereign default in Venezuela, which now seems increasingly likely given the plunge in the price of oil, cause upheaval in the global financial markets? We suspect not, even though a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices pushes Venezuela even closer to default The writing is on the wall for Venezuela as falling oil prices exacerbate severe strains in the balance of payments. Both the government’s ability and willingness to service its foreign currency debt... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Restructuring petro-loans won’t save Venezuela from default On the face of it, the Venezuelan government’s restructuring of petro-loans from China should boost foreign currency revenues and ease the economy’s severe dollar drought. But in reality, the deal... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of lower oil prices on Latin America The biggest loser from the drop in oil prices within Latin America will be Venezuela and, although the government may make its debt servicing obligations this month, a default seems more likely than... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices and what they mean for Lat Am Fresh falls in global commodity prices in recent weeks have stoked concerns about how Latin America will fare as the tailwinds from the global commodities boom fade. The short point is that regional... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan bonds in for a rough ride The Venezuelan government may have gathered enough foreign currency to meet its debt obligations this month, but with the economy crippled by a shortage of foreign currency and oil prices now falling... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
