Latin America Economics Update Could Venezuela dollarise successfully? Comments by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro suggest that the government considers dollarisation as an option to tackle hyperinflation. If implemented, this would probably bring inflation down... 28th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Where are we with Venezuela’s inflation? President Nicholas Maduro’s attempts to control inflation have had some effect, but without more severe measures we think that price pressures will probably remain extremely high over the coming... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: US sanctions starting to bite Venezuela’s oil exports have dropped sharply following the imposition of US sanctions on PDVSA last month, and further falls are likely in the coming months. This will make it increasingly difficult... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela likely to need large debt write-down Views are polarised about size of the losses Venezuelan bondholders might face in an eventual debt restructuring, with some suggesting only modest debt relief is needed and others suggesting a large... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil output cuts are working, for now The price of oil rose strongly in January and is likely to remain supported in the coming months by the OPEC+ output cuts and the risk of severe disruption to Venezuela’s production. However, we think... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Venezuela at a tipping point Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds have rallied strongly over the past few weeks as investors appear to be betting on a swift regime change and a smooth debt restructuring, but the markets risk... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US sanctions PDVSA, next few months critical The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during... 29th January 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Too soon to write off Venezuela The received wisdom in the oil market is that the latest political turmoil in Venezuela is positive for oil prices as it could lead to further disruptions to the country’s oil supply. But a change of... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What now for Venezuela? The decision by the US and other governments to recognise the leader of Venezuela’s opposition Juan Guaido as president seems to have ratcheted up the pressure on the Maduro regime. Regardless of how... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela debt crisis phase II, what to watch in 2019 News that creditors have started the process for triggering an “acceleration” clause in one of Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds suggests that, after a lengthy impasse, the debt crisis is likely to... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How will Venezuela exit hyperinflation? In the 16 cases of hyperinflation since 1980, countries have either a) implemented “shock therapy”, b) dollarised or c) adopted a currency board in order to stabilise the economy, all of which seem... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The latest data suggest that Saudi Arabia is indeed capable of increasing production in order to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Weaker oil demand growth and higher supply from both OPEC... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (August) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has sufficient spare capacity to increase production if it needed to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Slower growth in demand and higher... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has plenty of room to increase production if it needed to offset falls in Iran and Venezuela. As such, the group’s production should continue to rise, at... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) We think that OPEC’s production is likely to rise significantly over the next couple of months. That said, it could fall back later in the year as output from Iran is curtailed and Venezuelan... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
