Latin America Economics Update Fed tapering and Latin America: a recap All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s US FOMC meeting in anticipation of the announcement that the Fed will begin scaling back its programme of asset purchases under QE3. But for the economies of... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies have not fully restored competitiveness The depreciation of exchange rates across Latin America since May only goes part of the way to restoring external competitiveness that has been lost over the past five years. As such, we suspect that... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters beginning to benefit from weaker currencies The recent increase in manufactured exports may be the first sign that Latin American industry is beginning to feel the benefit of weaker currencies. Nominal exports grew by 2.2% y/y in July, having... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Don’t be fooled by Q2, Venezuela is still vulnerable to a crisis Surprisingly strong Q2 data have left Venezuelan GDP on course to grow by 0.5% this year, but severe underlying problems in the economy have not been solved. If oil prices fall over the coming years... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: how will policymakers respond to market rout? The sell-off in the Brazilian real over the past month has triggered a sharp upward revision in market expectations for interest rates over the next year. In this month’s Watch we explain why... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A new era of weaker growth Latin American growth fell to its slowest rate since 2009 in the first half of this year and, while some countries are likely to see a rebound over the coming quarters, we think that for most this... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revamped SICAD won’t save Venezuela The re-launch of foreign exchange auctions in Venezuela, coupled with an increase in the public debt ceiling, is unlikely to solve the country’s dollar drought. We continue to think that GDP will... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Investment plan another reason to expect Mexico rebound The poor performance of the Mexican economy so far this year has been one of the biggest disappointments in Latin America. In this Watch we explain why, in contrast to Brazil, the slowdown owes more... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fed sends markets reeling Latin American bonds, equities and currencies have slumped over the past month after the US Fed signalled its intention to taper its asset purchases under QE3 later this year. But while financial... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Second devaluation would not solve Venezuela's woes Another devaluation of the bolivar would do nothing to solve Venezuela’s shortage of foreign currency. Until or unless the government changes tack and adopts a more market-friendly economic framework... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growing risk of balance of payments crisis in Venezuela The Venezuelan economy may already be in recession and we continue to expect GDP to contract by 1% this year. With the authorities running out of hard currency, and oil prices unlikely to rebound over... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Slower growth to become the new norm Economic growth across Latin America was weaker than expected in Q1. We estimate that regional GDP increased by about 2.2% y/y, down from 2.8% y/y in Q4 of last year – the slowest pace since 2009... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American equities underperform The recent weakness of Latin American stock markets has continued unabated in May, with returns well below those of developed and emerging market equity benchmarks. Going forward, we expect stocks to... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Hidden vulnerabilities Latin American GDP growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2009 in the first quarter of this year and, while we expect to see a gradual recovery over the coming quarters, mounting vulnerabilities will... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth softens The past month has brought further signs that the recovery in economic growth in Latin America that began in mid-2012 is now running into headwinds. Admittedly, calendar effects have probably... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
