Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The case for below-neutral rates in Australia It’s possible that prolonged weakness in economic activity and a jump in unemployment force the RBA to cut rates more aggressively than we’re anticipating. However, a more likely scenario resulting in... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Broad credit growth rebounded last month, but bank loan growth continued to hit record lows. We expect strong government bond issuance to continue supporting credit growth over the coming quarters... 14th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update A nuanced take on renewable rollout outperformance On the face of it, the fact that the world is installing more renewable electricity generating capacity than seemed likely just a few years ago is encouraging for the green transition. That said, one... 13th January 2025 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The further moderation in Indian headline consumer price inflation in December supports our view that the monetary easing cycle will kick off at the RBI’s next policy meeting in February. 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2024) Export growth rebounded last month, with both export values and volumes posting double-digit y/y gains. We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile... 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Cyclical oil market drivers in the ascendancy, for now The recent rise in oil prices – to a three-month high just shy of $80pb – can be partly attributed to the apparent pick-up in activity in China at the end of 2024, which is likely to continue to... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbi A sharp depreciation of the renminbi this week took the currency to the edge of the trading band that the PBOC has been holding steady since Donald Trump's election. The PBOC is likely to ramp-up its... 10th January 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Is the RBI changing tack on the rupee? Movements in the Indian rupee - which hit a fresh low of 85.9/$ his week - appear to have been bigger under the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra than they were under his predecessor, raising the... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Bank of Korea to cut rates again, free meals in Indonesia With inflation under control and signs the political crisis is weighing on the already-weak economy, we expect the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates by a further 25bps at its meeting on Thursday... 10th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s easing cycle may be inching closer Economic data released this week are likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish mood. Indeed, we learnt that underlying inflation is easing in earnest and is likely to undershoot the... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Case for tighter policy remains intact Wage growth continues to accelerate and all signs point to this year's Shunto delivering another strong pay hike. However, the Bank of Japan wants to see more clarity on US economic policy and we... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump 2.0 – US and Asia macro implications 1736841600 2025 has started with a bang as bonds have sold off amid growth and inflation fears – and the operating environment may only get more tricky from here.
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec. 2024) Headline CPI inflation fell but this was driven by weather-related volatility in food prices. More important is that core CPI and PPI both continued to pick up, adding to signs that policy stimulus is... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
