Asset Allocation Update

The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds

Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US.

6th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze

National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that...

6th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Wage growth will slow again next year

The sharp acceleration in regular earnings growth in July poses some upside risks to our wage growth forecasts. And with smaller firms now lifting wages rapidly, too, the Bank of Japan will feel...

6th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Rapid Response

Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (September 2024)

5th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

BoJ will deliver final rate hike later this year

The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls...

5th September 2024 · 18 mins read

Commodities Update

Cracks in oil demand to put OPEC+ to the test

The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above...

4th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Could the stock market ride out a recession?

Investors' concerns about the health of the US economy have intensified again, contributing to a selloff in global equity markets. The US stock market rode out an earnings recession last year thanks...

4th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q2 2024)

Although activity likely bottomed out last quarter, the ongoing weakness in private demand raises the risk that the RBA will cut rates sooner rather than later.

4th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

Green tech and chips will remain key battlegrounds

Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic...

3rd September 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (July 24)

While weaker growth in bonus payments weighed on overall wage growth, base pay rose by the most since 1992 in July and we think it will continue to surge in the coming months. The preliminary estimate...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Korea: fall in inflation opens the door to October cut

Inflation in Korea fell back sharply last month, supporting our view that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in October.

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Will the slump in Chinese equities ever end?

Chinese equities have tumbled today, and while we see scope for them to recover a bit in the coming months, we are quite pessimistic about their medium-to-long term prospects.

2nd September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)

With transaction volumes moderating and inventory rising, we expect the Australian housing market to cool in months ahead.

2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Aug. 2024)

The PMIs for August suggest that economic momentum held broadly steady last month, with modest improvements in manufacturing helping to offset a further slowdown in construction activity. But with...

2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read