China Economics Weekly

Retirement age increase, import slowdown

The increase in China's retirement age announced today will provide a near-term boost to employment. But it won't do much to counteract long-run demographic headwinds. And while weak domestic demand...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes

Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for...

13th September 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Courting China, commodities, consumer prices

Signs of a further thawing in relations between India and China provide more evidence of a growing theme of countries courting Chinese investment, not as a rejection of the potential benefits from US...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Government isn’t what’s keeping the RBA from cutting

We aren't convinced that the recent surge in public sector employment is the main cause behind Australia's poor productivity performance and stubborn inflationary pressures. But with the latest survey...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan sticking to hawkish script

Import price inflation slowed sharply in August and if the yen continues to strengthen, it may turn negative as soon as September. That may prompt the Bank of Japan to judge near-term risks to...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

FX Markets Update

RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar

We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

The slight rise in India’s headline CPI inflation in August reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank will proceed with a bit of caution and keep rates unchanged in its next meeting in October. But it...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Bank will deliver final rate hike in October

The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its September meeting and will probably keep describing financial markets as unstable. However, recent data should have strengthened the Bank’s...

12th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Thoughts on the oil market sell-off

The sell-off in oil markets so far in September, which gathered pace on Tuesday, has largely been driven by market concerns over demand. Although investors are correct to be worried about the...

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Focus

Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?

With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same...

10th September 2024 · 11 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the...

10th September 2024 · 11 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2024)

Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 17 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We expect exports to remain robust in the near term, supported by the decline in China’s real...

10th September 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024)

Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening...

9th September 2024 · 2 mins read