China Data Response China Trade (Nov.) Chinese exports contracted year-on-year in November by the most since the start of the pandemic and imports dropped at the fastest pace in 30 months. We expect outbound shipments to fall further over... 7th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not backing away from rate hikes just yet The RBA today hiked the cash rate by 25bp as widely anticipated and while the statement was marginally less hawkish, we’re sticking to our view that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 22) 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Oct. 22) Labour cash earnings increased by a slower 1.8% y/y in October due mostly to a much smaller gain in volatile bonus payments. However, real wage losses have extended for a seventh consecutive month and... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A few reasons for caution on the China rally While investors in Chinese equities have had some more reasons to cheer of late, we doubt that they will reverse much more than a small fraction of their earlier underperformance relative to US stocks... 5th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Long-term impact of energy price caps may be positive The proposed caps on domestic prices of thermal coal and natural gas are unlikely to be a major drag on mining investment because the bulk of coal and gas production is exported. And by helping to... 5th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Global downturn will drag Japan into recession The global downturn will pull Japan into recession next year. And with government caps on utility bills pushing inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-2023, the Bank will remain the... 5th December 2022 · 23 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sensex outperformance, activity data, RBI meeting India’s Sensex hit a fresh record high this week, continuing its remarkable performance over the past few months. However, high valuations may limit its outperformance over the coming years. Next week... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s zero-COVID stance and global markets If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccination targets point to mid-2023 reopening goal The recent easing of virus restrictions in many cities reflects efforts to streamline the zero-COVID policy rather than abandon it in the near-term. By setting concrete targets for elderly vaccination... 2nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese carmakers struggling in decarbonising world The conventional wisdom is that the continued difficulties of Japan’s car industry reflect persistent supply shortages. But there are structural headwinds too as the industry has missed the EV... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
