China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
RBI Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow With inflation having passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we expect the MPC to slow the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate at the conclusion of... 29th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Retail Sales (Oct. 22) The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in August and will hover around 2.5% through 2023 due to a looming economic recession. Meanwhile, retail sales values barely grew in October from September and... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update How will the authorities respond? The authorities will not allow a protest movement to occupy China’s streets for any length of time. If the protests continue, a crackdown is very likely. They have no good options in the near-term to... 28th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Valuations may limit the outperformance of Indian equities We think the stretched valuations of Indian equities compared to those elsewhere will prevent the standout performance of Indian equities seen so far in 2022 being sustained over the longer run. China... 28th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2022) Following a strong eight consecutive rises since the start of the year, the decline in retail sales in October isn’t a disaster. A fall in sales volumes across Q4 now looks very likely but we suspect... 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 22) 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A lot of bad news already seems discounted in China Chinese equities have held up remarkably well in the past few weeks, despite a serious COVID outbreak that raises the risk of a lot of disruption to the economy. That might reflect how a lot of bad... 25th November 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Patching up relations with the West, help for developers There has been a palpable easing of strains between China and the West since the cordial meeting last week between Xi and Biden. But the root causes of distrust haven’t changed – if anything, recent... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Discretionary spending cuts hurting service sector While the rebound in inbound tourism is positive for the accommodation and transport sectors, the wider services sector is struggling because households are having to cut back on discretionary... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut intended to provide lockdown support The reduction in the required reserve ratio that the PBOC just announced will help banks follow through on a directive to defer loan repayments from firms struggling with widening lockdown... 25th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand will enter prolonged recession We already predicted that New Zealand would enter recession a month ago and the RBNZ’s determination to push the economy off a cliff to get inflation under control means the downturn will be even... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Gujarat election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Gujarat arguably holds more significance than most others. It is the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and, linked to... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Nov. 2022) Headline inflation in the capital set a new three-decade high in November on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and industrial goods inflation. The upshot is that nationwide... 25th November 2022 · 2 mins read
