Japan Economic Outlook Global downturn will drag Japan into recession The global downturn will pull Japan into recession next year. And with government caps on utility bills pushing inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-2023, the Bank will remain the... 5th December 2022 · 23 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sensex outperformance, activity data, RBI meeting India’s Sensex hit a fresh record high this week, continuing its remarkable performance over the past few months. However, high valuations may limit its outperformance over the coming years. Next week... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s zero-COVID stance and global markets If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccination targets point to mid-2023 reopening goal The recent easing of virus restrictions in many cities reflects efforts to streamline the zero-COVID policy rather than abandon it in the near-term. By setting concrete targets for elderly vaccination... 2nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese carmakers struggling in decarbonising world The conventional wisdom is that the continued difficulties of Japan’s car industry reflect persistent supply shortages. But there are structural headwinds too as the industry has missed the EV... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs across the region fell further into contractionary territory in November, driven by a sharp decline in the employment index. We expect conditions to remain subdued as weaker global... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in November and continues to buck the weaker regional trend. The survey also indicates that price pressures are easing, reinforcing our view that the RBI is now in a... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up in November but remained weak. Taken together with the official survey published yesterday, they suggest that downward pressure on industrial activity intensified... 1st December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Private Capex (Q3 & 2022/23) 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained turnaround in China’s markets probably still some way off We continue to think that recent optimism around the prospects for China’s economy and financial markets will founder. 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s COVID outbreak: your questions answered We hosted an online Drop-In yesterday to discuss China’s COVID outbreak and its domestic and global implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) While base effects caused a sharp slowdown in headline GDP growth in India in Q3 (Q2 of FY22/23), growth held up well in quarter-on-quarter terms. However, there are signs in more timely activity data... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April With the labour market still very tight and inflation far above the RBA’s target, we expect another 25bp hike next week. However, with inflation starting to level off and consumption growth softening... 30th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: more tightening to come The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.25%), and reiterated that it is likely to continue tightening policy gradually over the coming months. 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
