FX Markets Update BoJ’s YCC shift points to stronger yen The Bank of Japan’s unexpected decision to alter its yield curve control (YCC) policy has led to a surge in the yen today; we now expect the USD/JPY rate to drop further, reaching 125 by end-2023. In... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The BoJ makes its move – What now for monetary policy? 1671609600 Does the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement about changes to its yield curve control policy point to a fundamental shift in its monetary stance? Is this new regime defensible?
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan Meeting (Dec. 2022) The Bank of Japan today tweaked its Yield Curve Control (YCC) settings by widening the tolerance band around its yield target but we don’t expect it to hike its short-term policy rate anytime soon. 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update More flexible guidelines not enough for BoJ tightening A mooted adjustment to the joint statement between the Bank of Japan and the government has been widely interpreted as a step towards the withdrawal of ultra-loose policy. However, the policy... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer demand push revived, COVID debacle, chips The Central Economic Work Conference ended today with a pledge of more support for consumers and property developers. That’s the second major policy document with a focus on consumers this week. Might... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Huge risks associated with China reopening The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inventory build-up points to looming recession Surges in manufacturing inventories in the BoJ’s Tankan have a strong record in providing early warnings of economic downturns. The strong rise in inventories over the last couple of quarters... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Dec. 22) December’s flash PMIs point to further annual contractions in industrial output but suggest services spending rebounded towards year-end. 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Lying flat, getting steam-rollered China’s authorities appear to have given up trying to manage the spread of COVID-19. If we’re right, the surge in infections underway in Beijing will spread rapidly across the country. As is happening... 15th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The disruption from virus outbreaks intensified in November, with retail sales, investment spending and industrial output all contracting by the most month-on-month since the Shanghai lockdown. Early... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
