Japan Economics Weekly Business investment plunging, money supply soaring Revised data show a slump in business investment in Q2 and we believe that capital spending won’t recover until next year. By contrast, the money supply is going from strength to strength. With around... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update What next for government borrowing costs? The use of traditional monetary policy tools alongside financial repression will keep government borrowing costs in India in check over the coming years. That should help to ensure that only modest... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in the Russian ruble has further to run The Russian ruble looks set to lose further ground over the coming months as geopolitical tensions and the threat of international sanctions ratchet up. We expect the ruble to drift towards 80/$ by... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Stealth QE doesn’t let RBA off the hook Proposals by the banking regulator and the RBA that banks will need to hold more government bonds could be interpreted as financial repression. However, the surge in the outstanding stock of... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Bank Indonesia’s independence under threat? Proposed changes to Bank Indonesia’s mandate, which include a shift to focus more on growth and unemployment, could lead to major changes in how the central bank operates. However, given the country’s... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s debt deal The completion of a deal to restructure almost all $66.2bn of Argentina’s international sovereign bonds will give the government some much-needed breathing space over the coming years, as will an... 1st September 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jul.) July’s money and credit data confirm the resurgence in the housing market while recovering consumer credit suggests that households’ appetite for big ticket purchases is returning. 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s T-Bill purchases yet to boost the money supply The Bank of Japan’s recent purchases of Treasury Bills have yet to feed through into the money supply as the government’s deposit account at the Bank has ballooned. That will provide a further boost... 31st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico’s mixed signals Argentina’s government formally requested talks with the IMF over a new financing deal this week, but the conditions likely to be demanded by the Fund could prove to be a major sticking point... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
RBA Watch Bank to resume bond purchases in earnest The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t keen on providing more monetary stimulus and instead wants the government to do the heavy lifting. As such, the Bank will certainly keep policy settings unchanged... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus is once again proving costly for banks The return on assets of Chinese banks fell to a record low last quarter after they heeded policymakers’ calls to step up lending and sacrifice profits in order to lower borrowing costs for struggling... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shadow banking strains are easing Severe strains in the shadow banking sector that were amplified during the initial stages of the coronavirus crisis are showing signs of easing. This should help ensure that the economic slump isn’t... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
