US Housing Market Update Mortgage credit scores jump, and will stay high The median credit score on mortgages originated in the second quarter surged to a 21-year high, as lenders tightened standards in response to uncertainty over the labour market. While unemployment is... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks still the weak link Turkey’s banks are more vulnerable now to a sell-off in the lira and a tightening of external financing conditions than they were in the run-up to the 2018 currency crisis. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s FX reserves flashing red Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) has burned through its FX reserves to defend the lira this year, but the CBRT’s firepower is severely depleted and reserves are now so dangerously low that monetary... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit growth hit its highest rate in nearly two and a half years last month as a pick-up in direct financing and shadow credit offset slower issuance of bank loans. The acceleration has further... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt restructuring, car sales strength The RBI’s new framework for banks to restructure loans to struggling borrowers should help ease near-term cash flow issues for firms and households that have been severely affected by the lockdown... 7th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Debt restructurings: lessons from Argentina & Ecuador Argentina and Ecuador’s swift debt restructuring deals may provide a blueprint for other debt-distressed sovereigns. But these deals are not quite the success stories they seem at first sight. In any... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT? Financial decoupling between the US and China could be far more disruptive to both China and the global economy than anything the Trump administration has attempted so far. But much of what is... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s pension bill: the economic & market impact Reforms in Chile that allow households to withdraw some of their pension savings may help to boost the economic recovery over the next year. But the way in which the reform was passed adds to the... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jun.) The signs that firms did not rush quite as fast to take on more debt in June and that households started to borrow again rather than pay down debt suggest that the economy is moving back towards... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further falls lie in store for Turkish lira Today’s depreciation of the Turkish lira marks the first significant departure from the de facto peg that has been in place over the past month and, if tensions with the EU continue to escalate... 28th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector risks, bumper food harvest Concerns about an impending surge in non-performing loans have resurfaced over the past week. We flagged this risk a few months ago but, given the increasing likelihood of limited fiscal support, the... 17th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) Mortgage credit availability collapsed in Q2, while commercial loan conditions improved on the back of government loan guarantees. Looking ahead, lenders expect both commercial and residential... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2 2020) The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey suggests that bank lending conditions will tighten in Q3, but by nowhere near as much as during the global financial crisis. This should mean that the banking... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Broad credit growth hit a two-year high in June and the recent uptick in interest rates is unlikely to prevent a further acceleration in the coming months. 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble Chinese equites surged this week, after state media talked up the value of a stock market rally in countering economic headwinds. Output may benefit in the short-run – at its peak the 2015 rally was... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
