Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Turkey’s latest credit boom Turkey’s credit boom that started towards the end of last year has been turbocharged in recent months and this should provide some welcome support to the economy as it emerges from the coronavirus... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE can push up the money supply but not inflation A surge in the money supply has piqued fears of a leap in inflation. But in our view, there is little chance that this expansion of the money supply, driven almost entirely by quantitative easing... 9th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Credit growth should continue to hold up A combination of timely policy support and resilient cross-border banking sector flows appeared to alleviate a collapse in EM credit growth during height of the coronavirus crisis. These forces should... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine in the spotlight, Russia’s sanctions threat The resignation of Ukraine’s central bank governor, Yakiv Smolii, this week is unlikely to upend the country’s IMF deal, but failure to replace him with a credible candidate or backsliding on recent... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (May) The Bounce Back Loan Scheme restored access to credit for small and medium-sized enterprises in May. That increases the chances of a swift recovery but will also raise the fiscal cost of the crisis... 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can South Africa’s banks weather the Covid fallout? The economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis is likely to push bad loans in South Africa’s banking sector to levels that trigger a round of recapitalisations, which could further increase the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary easing cycle nearing an end With fiscal stimulus ramping up and economic recovery well underway, the PBOC appears to see less of a need to encourage stronger private borrowing. Broad credit growth still looks set to accelerate... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks to weather the storm, but pockets of risk linger Banking sectors across the Middle East and North Africa are generally well placed to weather the current economic downturn but there are pockets of vulnerability, particularly in Qatar and parts of... 17th June 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Conditions slowly improve, interest waiver dispute The gradual loosening of strict containment measures has provided a slight boost to activity, but with new COVID-19 cases still rising sharply, the recovery is likely to be slower and bumpier than in... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) A jump in government bond issuance helped push credit growth to a 21-month high in May. The acceleration in credit growth has further to run and will add fuel to the economic recovery. 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Apr.) The record fall in net loans to households and another surge in borrowing by businesses in April is an indication of how the lockdown has affected consumer spending and business revenues. These trends... 2nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Private creditor debt talks, SA budget constraints The past week has brought private sector debt relief a step closer for the region, although we suspect that talks will drag on. Similarly, the road ahead for an ambitious infrastructure spending plan... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Cash to remain king for a long while yet Amid the severe economic damage that the coronavirus and containment measures have caused, one potential positive is the greater prevalence of cashless payments as people make more purchases from home... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable are Russia’s banks? A deep dive into Russia’s banking system provides comfort that, while there are pockets of vulnerability beneath the surface, the economy is unlikely to experience a financial crisis like it did in... 20th May 2020 · 5 mins read
