Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will deliver final rate hike in July Governor Ueda sounds keen on tightening policy further and we’re pencilling in another interest rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s July meeting. However, with underlying inflation set to fall below 2%... 22nd April 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil and gas price spikes not likely to stop ECB cuts We think the risk of a large and sustained rise in energy prices is low so we remain happy with our forecast that the ECB will cut rates by 125bp this year. If energy prices were to jump very sharply... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How will Bank Indonesia respond to the slump in the rupiah? With the rupiah coming under further downward pressure against the US dollar this week, a rate hike by Bank Indonesia at its scheduled meeting on Wednesday cannot be ruled out. However, our sense is... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global and domestic inflation risks mount We still think that the flatlining of the economy over the past two years will dampen price pressures by enough to result in CPI inflation falling below the 2% target in April and below 1.0% later... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Interest rate purgatory to continue for a while Much to the RBNZ's chagrin, inflation in New Zealand continued to have a four handle last quarter. The main culprit was non-tradables inflation, which remained uncomfortably high, at 5.8%. With the... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Copom break its forward guidance? Investors are no longer pricing in a 50bp interest rate cut at the Brazilian central bank meeting next month, despite the forward guidance at the March meeting signalling such a move. While we think... 18th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US vs. European inflation differences overstated On the face of it, core disinflation seems to have stalled or even reversed in the US but not in Europe, suggesting that Fed cuts will come much later than those by the ECB and BoE. However, there are... 18th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-In: What currency sell-offs mean for emerging markets 1713880800 The first Fed rate cut of this cycle is now looking like a second-half event and EM investors – and policymakers – are having to adjust to the delay.
Capital Daily Gilt yields may fall by more than Treasury yields Today’s UK CPI release has not made a sustained impact on investors’ expectations over the path of Bank Rate, and the market pricing implies that investors are still discounting fewer cuts from the... 17th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the currency sell-off? The recent bout of EM currency weakness may prompt (further) FX intervention, particularly in Asia, to stem currency volatility. Turkey’s central bank is likely to hike rates at its meeting next week... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2024) Although the Q1 CPI print was a touch stronger than we had predicted, we still expect inflation to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band by Q3. However, given uncertainties around the inflation... 17th April 2024 · 2 mins read
