Japan Economics Weekly Sluggish activity need not prevent BoJ from tightening Consumer spending probably isn't quite as weak as the retail sales would suggest and we still expect GDP to rebound this quarter. However, the continued weakness in new job openings suggests that the... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 23) GDP contracted in the third quarter and there are downside risks to the outlook. As house prices are falling again, household debt is elevated and high interest rates are still feeding through, the... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: We are more dovish than investors regarding the amount of rate cuts that the Fed... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to loosen policy until H2 2024 We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 8 th December. Further ahead, robust economic growth and upside risks to... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Nov. Flash Estimate) & GDP (Q3) The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus What would convince the Bank of England to cut rates? The key indicators that have usually convinced the Bank of England to cut interest rates suggest the first cut could come in Q1 2024. That said, rates have risen to a lower peak than most models... 30th November 2023 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate cuts likely in mid-2024 The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) for a seventh consecutive meeting, and hinted that interest rates would remain elevated as it continues to clamp down on... 30th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A less hawkish hold The second consecutive month of muted core inflation pressures in October should have further reduced the Bank of Canada’s appetite for another interest rate hike. While markets are now in agreement... 29th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: currency, sovereign, banking risks intertwine The falls in the Egyptian pound over the past year have increased the size of commercial banks’ net FX assets, but what has flown under the radar is banks’ growing exposure to the government’s FX debt... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch Tightening cycle is now over We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 5 th December. And while the resilience of trimmed mean inflation could prompt another 25bp rate... 29th November 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update China to buck the trend of rising equilibrium rates In much of the world, interest rates are likely to settle at higher levels than was the case prior to the pandemic. But China is a key exception, with its shrinking population, slowing productivity... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (Nov. 23) 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024, but a challenging external... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
