US Commercial Property Update Trip Notes – NY and Chicago client Q&A Here are answers to some of the key questions that kept coming up during meetings with clients last week in New York and Chicago, and around my presentation to the NCREIF summer conference in Chicago. 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where are out of town retail prospects brightest? Out of town retail has been among the hardest hit commercial sectors since 2020, but with considerable variation among subsectors. While a weak consumer backdrop will drag on near term rent growth... 17th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack What does the new normal mean for real estate? Slides presented by our Deputy Chief Property Economist, Kiran Raichura, at the Summer NCREIF Conference, outlining our view on what the "new normal" will mean for real estate over the rest of this... 17th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (June) 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update The implications of the latest hike in gilt yields The recent rise in gilt yields to levels above those seen in the aftermath of the mini-Budget has not triggered a similar rush to sell property assets. In part because past falls in capital values... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Clear split between weak west and strong south The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist... 11th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising vacancy to drag on Brussels office rent growth After a lacklustre 2022, the Brussels prime office market has had a brighter start to 2023, as rent growth accelerated while it slowed elsewhere in the euro-zone. But with a cooling jobs market set to... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook San Francisco and Seattle values to drop 40% in 2023-25 Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our... 7th July 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun 23) After two months of gains the headline CIPS construction PMI reversed course in May, dropping to a five-month low of 48.9, which indicated a contraction in activity. 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Pandemic impacts on physical office occupancy The pandemic-induced shift towards homeworking caused a sharp fall in physical office occupancy rates. They have since recovered significantly but remain below pre-pandemic levels. And while lower... 6th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why has property lending held up? The recent strength of net lending to commercial property can’t be explained by a rise in investment. Instead, we suspect some investors are borrowing against older assets to provide additional equity... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Price falls slowing but poor rent outlook to drag on recovery The slowdown in rent growth at the start of this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop. And although the property price correction has slowed, we think stretched valuations will... 3rd July 2023 · 35 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Flight to quality limited to offices The recent fall in commercial property values has not driven a flight to quality in either the retail or industrial sectors. But there has been a sharp rise in the office non-prime/prime spread, as... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (May 23) Net lending to commercial property remained in positive territory in May at £621m. And over the past three months, lending has totalled £2.3bn, the highest figure since June 2020. Commercial property... 29th June 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (May.) Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over 1... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
