Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for euro-zone yields? The following is a presentation that our Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell gave to the District Conference in Barcelona on 21st September, 2023. 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
Event Property Drop-In: US CRE – Updated forecasts and more downside risks 1695915000 The bad news around US commercial real estate continues to roll in, but appraisal-based indices have so far only fallen by 10%.
UK Commercial Property Update Financial conditions still point to weaker construction Commercial construction surveys have shown improving activity in recent months, despite high interest rates and a slowing economy. Our Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) suggest that might be because... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Flex office woes not systemic, but concerns remain The problems of WeWork, which have intensified in recent months, do not look reflective of significant distress in the wider flexible office market. However, flex has yet to see much of a boost from... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug) The $29.0bn monthly rise in real estate debt held by US banks in August, now at $5.48trn outstanding, was the largest m/m increase in six months. However, we expect this spike to be short-lived, as... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment and single-family REIT divergence to persist The recent outperformance of single-family REITs versus apartment REITs appears to be down to differences in the capital value outlook for the sectors, rather than any major difference in rental... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Record fall in passing rents highlights office weakness The surprising strength of office market rents looks to reflect the increased use of incentives. Indeed, passing rents have seen a sharp decline, with all-office annual growth recently falling to a... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do yield spreads tell us about the outlook? Over the last year or so, spreads over sovereign yields have narrowed to their lowest since the euro-zone debt crisis. But while these are expected to widen again over the next year, mostly thanks to... 13th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Uncovering the factors impacting downtown recoveries Data on cell phone usage suggest that cities with a high share of professional, scientific and technical occupations and long commute times are typically associated with poorer downtown recoveries... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak macro outlook to weigh on Italian office rents After a strong 2022, annual office rental growth has slowed in Italy in H1 2023. And given the contraction in employment we are forecasting, together with increased supply, we think prime rents will... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Who pays for greener buildings? The UK government’s decision to block Marks and Spencer’s (M&S’) re-development of its flagship store highlights the challenges in the transition to net zero. In particular, while authorities are... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update End of Budapest office underperformance in sight The Budapest office market has underperformed in recent years, with rents lagging the rest of the region. While some weakness is likely for the rest of this year, the outlook is improving. With a more... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug. 23) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a reversal of last quarter’s forecast upgrades, bringing the consensus view more in line with our own. The surge in interest rates thanks to high inflation is... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why the slump in values feels different this time The latest real estate data suggest that the current drop in capital values in the euro-zone will be as bad as the post-GFC correction. But market sentiment has been less negative this time... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (August) 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
