Recoveries continue The slightly better-than-expected Q1 GDP figures out of Hungary and Czechia suggest that economic recoveries had a little more momentum at the start of this year than we previously thought and that the risks to our growth forecasts for …
30th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further evidence the drag on activity from high interest rates is fading March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is …
Underlying inflation remains stubborn, labour market still running hot RBA to hand down a final 25bp hike to mitigate upside risks Rate cuts unlikely before early next year, with only limited room for easing We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in Emerging Europe. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in the Middle East & North Africa. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in Latin America. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
This report was first published on Tuesday 30 th April covering the official PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the Caixin services and composite PMIs on Monday 6 th May. A touch softer but recovery still intact, for now The …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Softness in retail sales probably won’t prevent a rate hike The weakness in retail sales last month suggests that sales volumes fell across Q1 as a whole. That said, with …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. GDP set to rebound this quarter Coupled with solid output forecasts for April and May, the strong rebound in industrial production in March suggests that the likely slump in GDP …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for emerging economies. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
Despite global panic about the DM inflation outlook, we still think that price pressures in the UK are set to fade faster than most assume, opening the way for the Bank of England to cut rates more aggressively than indicated by the consensus. Our UK …
29th April 2024
José Raúl Mulino, the front-runner in Panama’s presidential election scheduled for Sunday, has pledged to reinvigorate growth. But as we’ve been arguing for some time, the economy’s time as Latin America’s growth star is coming to an end. If anything, …
Japan’s apparent intervention in support of the beleaguered yen may buy some time for the currency to stabilise, but is unlikely to lead to sustained turnaround until US interest rate expectations start to fall back. While Ministry of Finance (MoF) …
We think the Fed and most other developed markets (DM) central banks will be able to ease monetary policy this year and next more than investors currently anticipate. DM bond yields will end 2024 below their current levels, putting downward pressure on …
All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal US import tariff or a dollar devaluation, and those …
Trump, the Fed, and the dollar Most of the major policy initiatives being suggested by Donald Trump’s campaign would be inflationary; whether it’s narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation, curbing immigration or, now we learn, …
The wide divergence in global office market performance to-date has been driven by significant differences in the return to office and the impact that has had on occupiers’ leasing decisions. US markets have been the major losers, while those in …
A second Trump presidency would almost certainly lead to a protectionist lurch from the US, with profound implications for the emerging world. But which EMs would see the biggest hit to export demand? What would a more isolationist shift signal about the …
Why is productivity so weak outside the US? Productivity growth in most advanced economies has been much weaker than that in the US since the pandemic. This partly reflects the relative weakness of demand, coupled with a degree of labour hoarding which …
While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK interest rates will still be as high as 4.00% by the end of …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Survey points to stagnant economy and still-high price pressures The weaker-than-expected EC business and consumer survey for April is a reminder that the euro-zone economy is …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Fairly strong start to Q2 The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in April, but our regional …
The dollar is once again sending shivers through global markets as its rise again generates fearful headlines about risks to economies large and small. Central bankers are clearly getting nervous – and some have good cause to be so – but the consequences …
The different treatment of prices collected annually is a key reason why the quarterly CPI measure rose much faster last quarter than the Monthly CPI Indicator had indicated. While it’s possible to correct some of the shortfalls of the MCI, it can’t be …
The Ministry of Finance may have intervened earlier today by selling FX reserves to halt the sharp fall of the yen. However, the economic case for foreign exchange intervention is much weaker now than it was in 2022, when the MoF last sold dollars to …
Explore our modelled real-time estimates of GDP growth based on high frequency data. These are updated weekly and the impacts of the latest data releases are shown in the dashboard. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for the UK economy. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart …
The US dollar is ending the week a touch softer against most currencies despite another set of hotter-than-expected US inflation figures. But the main story in currency markets this week is the ongoing drop in the Japanese yen, which hit a new low for the …
26th April 2024
While the headline of the Q1 NCREIF NPI data (-0.9% q/q total return) suggests we could be near the end of the price falls, we think this simply stored up bigger falls for the rest of the year. The growing share of underwater loans, as well as the far …
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews the coming week’s Fed meeting, tackles market talk that the next move on the US policy rate could be up, addresses an intriguing report about Fed independence and …
The NASDAQ 100 has shrugged off this week’s surge in real US Treasury yields amid a mixed bag of earnings reports from some of the ‘Magnificent 7’. (See Chart 1.) This suggests to us that the earlier pull-back in the index wasn’t a harbinger of a far …
SARB hawkishness continues, no rate cuts in 2024 This week, the SARB published is biannual Monetary Policy Review , which showed a Bank less confident about South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated a desire to move to a lower inflation target. …
US aid package a (large) sticking plaster for Ukraine The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a …
The latest Summary of Deliberations showed division among the Governing Council about when it will be appropriate to cut interest rates. The data released since the April meeting favour the doves, however, so we are sticking to our view that the first cut …
Have soft landing hopes been dashed? GDP growth slows, but stronger under the hood The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.6% annualised, from 3.4%, was more marked than expected, but it was principally due to a bigger drag from the net exports …
In a mixed week for commodity prices, one interesting development is that, after the tin price reached multi-year highs at the end of last week, copper followed suit this week by topping $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the …
Colombia: drought poses inflation & growth risk The recent rainfalls in many parts of Colombia have provided some relief to the country, which has been hit hard by an El Niño-linked drought. The drought had pushed reservoir levels to historical lows in …
Recovery in activity won’t stop ECB rate cuts This week brought some more evidence that the euro-zone economy is coming out of recession. The euro-zone Composite PMI rose more than expected in April, to a level consistent with GDP expanding slightly. …
This interactive dashboard presents total return forecasts for the 35 headline indices covered on our Asset Allocation service. These are expressed in local-currency, USD, EUR, and GBP terms. The price and yield forecasts unpinning these forecast can be …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore our forecasts for equities and bonds through to end-2026. To explore what these forecasts imply for total returns from these assets, across a range of currencies, please visit our interactive Total Return …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore our exchange rate forecasts through to end-2026. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart or table. If you …
This week the FTSE 100 broke through the 8,000 mark for the first time since its brief three-day flutter in February last year and reached a record high of 8,100. This appears to be justified based on the recent improvement in economic activity. Indeed, …
Softer inflation figure (just about) keeps a 50bp cut in May in play The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for the first half of this month, of 3.8% y/y, and signs of softening underlying core price pressures might just be enough to …
Disinflationary trend to resume soon; real spending still strong The slightly bigger-than-expected 3.7% annualised first-quarter gain in the core PCE deflator was principally because January’s gain was revised up to 0.50% from 0.45%. Nevertheless, the …
Hawkish CBR worried about upside inflation risks The hawkish communications accompanying the decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to leave its key policy rate on hold today suggests that monetary easing will probably arrive later than we previously …
Overview – Progress in getting back to central bank targets has slowed in several major economies. In advanced economies, a rebound in energy inflation has offset most of the drag on headline rates from lower non-energy goods inflation, and services …
We think the recent recovery in the share prices of some of the ‘Magnificent 7’ is a sign that the earlier pull-back in their collective performance wasn’t a harbinger of a far bigger correction in the NASDAQ 100. On the contrary, we suspect that index …
