Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate has been remarkably soft relative to most of the emerging world in the post-pandemic era and we think it will slow further – and be weaker than most expect – over the coming years. Given the constraint of the dollar peg, this …
14th July 2025
Larger-than-expected drop in inflation puts August rate cut back on the table The larger-than-expected fall in India’s consumer price inflation to 2.1% y/y in June raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further at its policy meeting next …
Credit growth nearing a cyclical peak The acceleration in broad credit growth last month, to a 16-month high, is a positive sign for the outlook and reduces the risk of a sharp declaration in near-term economic activity. But this tailwind looks set to …
Exports set to slow again before long Growth in export values rebounded somewhat last month, helped by the US-China trade truce. But tariffs are likely to remain high and Chinese manufacturers face growing constraints on their ability to rapidly expand …
Singapore’s economy rebounded sharply during the second quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. We expect a broad-based slowdown in the coming quarters and continue to expect the central bank to loosen monetary policy further. According to the …
The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9 th July deadline for the “pause” on the US’ reciprocal tariffs …
11th July 2025
Fiscal tightening to cause inflation spike in Romania Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While inflation may be lower …
Trump keeps South Africa in his tariff crosshairs South Africa was threatened with a 30% reciprocal tariff again and, while the economic hit should be manageable, the uneasy relationship with the US suggests that an even higher tariff rate remains a …
You've got mail Canada found itself among the unlucky recipients of a letter from President Donald Trump this week, in which a 35% tariff was threatened to come into effect from August 1 st unless more was done to stop cross-border fentanyl flows. Though …
Inflation picture becoming more benign The raft of June inflation figures released across the region this week were encouraging. Headline inflation fell in Mexico , Colombia and Chile (and by more than expected in the latter two) while inflation in Brazil …
Will the Chancellor’s second Budget be as big and as bad for the economy as her first? Will it dampen or ignite the gilt market’s fiscal fears? Our UK economists hosted this online briefing to preview what to expect from the Budget on 26 th November - …
6th November 2025
OPEC+ on pause. Gold off the boil. Copper at record highs. Cocoa and sugar prices slumping. Recent narratives in commodity markets are being tested amid shifting geopolitics and changing supply-demand dynamics. But are these narratives really changing – …
Mixed signals from recent data have complicated the RBA’s job. Although the recovery appears to be on firm footing, the labour market has cooled considerably, with unemployment hitting a four-year high. Against this backdrop, the Q3 CPI report is likely …
21st October 2025
US household exposure to equities is at levels not seen in at least 75 years. This extraordinary shift has been driven in part by a pensions industry which has seen a structural loss of appetite for bonds and corresponding rise in demand for equities. …
23rd September 2025
Is the latest flare-up in US–China relations simply brinkmanship ahead of a planned Trump–Xi meeting later this month, or a sign of structural tensions that point to a re-escalation of the trade war? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing led briefings with …
13th October 2025
Our Latin America economists hosted this special post-election briefing on what the results mean for Argentina’s economy and markets. In this session, the team addressed: Whether the election results have strengthened or weakened Milei’s reform mandate …
8th October 2025
Nigeria’s economy appears to be responding to President Bola Tinubu’s reforms, with growth accelerating to a four-year high. But how much has the outlook really improved – and what more is needed to put the country on a sustainable growth path? With …
16th October 2025
Global property markets have been recovering through the first half of 2025, with tariffs and other uncertainties showing only limited impact so far. But the recovery remains slow: REITs continue to trade at sizeable discounts to NAV, closed-end fund …
9th September 2025
Our Canada team were online shortly after the Bank of Canada’s January meeting, for a 20-minute online briefing about the country’s economic and policy outlook. … Drop-In: The Bank of Canada’s January decision and the 2026 policy …
16th January 2026
The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook. What can President Macron do to break the political deadlock over the public finances? Should investors brace for new elections? And how …
6th October 2025
François Bayrou has survived eight no-confidence votes since becoming France’s Prime Minister late last year. But this Monday’s confidence vote – called by Bayrou himself – could yet bring down his government. With France’s strained public finances at the …
2nd September 2025
The sacking of Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati marks the latest twist in a crisis that has been engulfing what until recently was one of Asia’s standout growth stories. Our economists hosted a special online briefing to answer client …
8th September 2025
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is coming. Set to begin in 2026, it will require EU importers to pay for the carbon emitted in the production of goods they bring into the bloc – effectively extending the ‘polluter pays’ principle to …
Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook explains why we remain far above consensus on the S&P 500 in 2026 – and why other tech-heavy equity markets may not be far behind. Economists from our Markets team hosted an online briefing to unpack the case for …
7th October 2025
Four months after the arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu reignited political risk in Turkey, market conditions have stabilised. The lira has firmed, capital is flowing back in, and reserves are rebuilding. But is the macro adjustment on solid …
The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently advocated a cautious approach to policy easing. But with economic momentum fading and the labour market showing signs of softening, the case for unwinding its restrictive monetary stance is growing. In that …
22nd July 2025
India is facing fresh tensions with the Trump administration. The president is threatening steep tariffs in response to India’s continued oil trade with Russia – even as he’s reportedly preparing to hold direct talks with Vladimir Putin. How this all …
29th July 2025
Our senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams hosted this online briefing to dive into the latest decisions and comms from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, and to answer client questions. … Central Bank Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank …
13th August 2025
19th August 2025
Our Markets economists hosted this online briefing on the state of the equity market and the role that confidence in AI’s promise continues to play in driving it. They answered client questions and set out the key issues, including: • Why we think the AI …
17th November 2025
Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are a proprietary early warning system for tracking vulnerabilities across the major emerging markets. In this special fourth quarter briefing, our EM team walked clients through the highlights of our latest refresh, …
27th October 2025
Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates and stuttering employment, the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November has put the UK housing market on ice. Is this the start of a sustained downturn, or just a temporary pause? Our UK team hosted …
Our economists hosted this fast focused briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves’ statement to the House of Commons, to discuss what the Budget means for the economy, housing and markets, and to answer questions from the audience. … UK Drop-In: The Autumn …
3rd November 2025
Asia’s factories sit at the heart of the global AI build-out – but who are the real economic winners, and what happens if the bubble bursts? I n this latest briefing on the major forces shaping Asian macro and markets, our economists explored the region’s …
10th November 2025
Russia and China declared a “no limits” partnership in 2022, but the constraints on their economic ties are increasingly obvious. In this special online briefing, our EM team set out the main findings from their new analysis of the economic reality behind …
In the face of tariffs, mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the CRE market has shown a slow but steady recovery path this year. But the outlook for the asset class and many of its sectors remains cloudy, so what’s coming next? Our US …
13th November 2025
Our proprietary China Activity Proxy shows growth running well below the official figures. Will this weakness persist into 2026 in the face of Trump tariffs and structural headwinds, or can government efforts to boost consumption and rein in overcapacity …
1st October 2025
Our North America team were online shortly after the Bank of Canada decision to unpack the Bank’s latest communications and baseline forecasts. They explained why we expect deeper cuts over the next year than markets anticipate, and outline the main risks …
23rd October 2025
Our UK team hosted a 20-minute online briefing to unpack the latest CPI data, discuss the implications for inflation and policy and explain how they shape our non-consensus Bank Rate view. The team address key issues, including: The forces likely to drive …
20th October 2025
Brazil now faces the highest non-reciprocal US tariff rates in the world – a stark sign of the breakdown in US-Brazil relations. And these tariffs come as Brazil’s balance of payments weakens, as its growth slows and as attention begins to shift to next …
15th September 2025
Japan’s search for a new prime minister has upended its political landscape – and the outcome will shape the country’s economic and market outlook. Our Japan and Markets economists hosted a special online briefing all about Japan’s leadership upheaval and …
Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are a proprietary early warning system for tracking vulnerabilities across the major emerging markets. In this special briefing, our EM team discussed the highlights of our latest refresh, showing in which economies risks …
31st July 2025
Gold prices continue to set record highs, oil remains under downward pressure, and OPEC+ is facing renewed questions about its long-term cohesion. Against this backdrop, our Commodities team hosted an online briefing to examine the outlook for gold, oil …
10th September 2025
In the face of tariffs, mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the CRE market has shown a slow but steady recovery path this year. But the outlook for the asset class and many of its sectors remains cloudy, so what’s coming next? Our …
What could protests in Iran mean for crude prices? Is Venezuelan oil output about to surge? Will gold (and silver) continue selling at record high prices? Does copper's supply-demand story justify ever-higher prices? It hasn’t been a quiet start to the …
19th December 2025
The transatlantic row over Greenland’s sovereignty intensified over the weekend following Donald Trump’s threat to ratchet up tariffs on European economies until Denmark agrees to sell. How serious is this latest escalation, and what does it mean for the …
19th January 2026
What has driven the dollar’s recent sharp fall? Are dedollarisation fears back in charge amid heightened political uncertainty? What support will the US macro narrative lend the currency? Join Deputy Chief Markets Economist hosted this online briefing on …
27th January 2026
What will a Fed under political fire signal at its first policy meeting of 2026? And what will February’s decisions reveal about our convictions that the ECB will pivot to rate cuts in 2026, and that the Bank of England will ease more aggressively than …
21st January 2026
