Join our US team on Friday 5th September at 10:00 ET/15:00 BST , soon after the release of the August Employment Report for this special online briefing all about the latest jobs data and their implications for the economic and policy outlook. During …
22nd August 2025
A year ago, our clients were citing geopolitical risk and the second Trump term as their key blind spots going into 2025. Those factors have indeed buffeted the commercial property recovery to some degree, but the dominating narrative is one of …
6th November 2025
Our senior economists hosted this 20-minute session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting. The team set out our views on inflation, growth and policy across the US, Europe and UK and answered …
20th October 2025
Our latest US Economic Outlook makes the case for stronger growth than the consensus expects as an AI-driven investment boom boosts productivity and helps offsets the drag from tighter immigration policy. Our US team hosted an online briefing to discuss …
30th September 2025
Asia ex-Japan’s three biggest economies are each grappling with major policy tests. In Indonesia, political unrest, the dismissal of a respected finance minister, and questions over the central bank’s independence have shaken confidence in what had been …
18th September 2025
Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing assessing the Xi-Trump meeting, the latest agreements and the outlook for the US-China economic relationship. … Drop-In: US–China trade talks – a lasting truce or just a …
29th October 2025
Faster growth, lower inflation, easing rates and a stronger currency – the signs point to Egypt pulling back from the brink. But has enough been done to lock in these gains? And can the government follow through on reforms, notably a stalled privatisation …
28th October 2025
Our UK economists hosted an online briefing shortly after the announcement to unpack the latest communications and tackle the key issues shaping the UK macro and policy outlook. … UK Drop-In: The Bank of England’s November decision – What’s next for …
The weekend's stunning events in Venezuela have raised urgent questions for the Latin American and global economies. Economists from our EM, Commodity and China were online for a briefing on the macroeconomic and commodity market risks surrounding Nicolás …
5th January 2026
After a sedate 2025, the EM electoral calendar looks busy again over the coming year. But what are the key flashpoints for EM investors to watch for? Our Emerging Markets team gave a 20-minute whistlestop tour of the big macro and market risks surrounding …
20th November 2025
Japan’s 8th February snap election is Sanae Takaichi’s high-stakes bid to cement her mandate. But could a strengthened mandate encourage the prime minister further down a policy path that could ultimately lead to a fiscal crisis? We’ll be online the day …
21st January 2026
2025 was another stellar year for India's economy. But with headwinds building in 2026, will policymakers need to step up their game? And can the underperforming equity market stage a turnaround? Just ahead of the all-important 1 st February Union Budget …
16th January 2026
The Trump administration has announced a flurry of measures aimed at making US housing more affordable, from proposed bans on institutional investors to the resumption of bond purchases by GSEs. But how workable are these proposals – and will they fix the …
2nd February 2026
The week has opened with signs that the sharp fall in precious metals prices is spilling over into broader financial markets. What has triggered this sell-off, and how might it evolve from here? Economists from our Commodities and Markets teams, were …
How much further will mortgage rates fall? Will the subdued economy dampen housing activity? Will homebuilders finally start to build more? How much will rents growth slow? Our economists will explore these questions and more in a 20-minute online …
6th February 2026
Our latest UK Economic Outlook explains how the Chancellor’s likely tax hikes in November’s Budget risk adding to the existing drags on economic growth and the labour market, resulting in the Bank of England cutting interest rates further than most …
22nd September 2025
The LDP’s weak performance in the Upper House elections signals pressure for looser fiscal policy, just as the Bank of Japan is constrained from tackling rising inflation in the face of tariff threats. With Japanese government bond yields pushing at …
21st July 2025
Our US team hosted a special online briefing just after the July CPI release, all about the US economic and policy outlook. During this session, the team answered questions from the audience and addressed key issues, including: What the latest inflation …
7th August 2025
Tariffs in effect. Inflation under debate. Divided central banks. Geopolitical strains. Equities at record highs. After a busy summer of economic, geopolitical and financial market maneuverings, what should investors expect in the remaining months of …
18th August 2025
Two years ago, we argued that structural forces – from AI-driven productivity gains to ageing demographics and higher government borrowing – would push equilibrium real interest rates in the US and across developed markets far above what markets were then …
11th September 2025
India has been a global bright spot, but it now faces increased uncertainty as the world fractures into US- and China-led economic blocs. Its recent growth run is at risk in the face of steep US tariffs and the absence of a trade deal. At the same time, …
In this special post-Budget session, our macro and property economists assessed the implications for commercial property returns. The team discussed how this Budget could have immediate consequences for the residential market, while looking further out …
10th November 2025
Will the US economy continue to outperform on the back of the AI boom? How will trade tensions shape global macro outcomes? Should investors expect further highs in equities – and brace for more bond market jitters? The World in 2026 is our definitive …
26th November 2025
Our economists were online on Wednesday 10th December, shortly after the statement and the Powell press conference, to deliver their take on the decision and the latest communications. … US Drop-In: Fed December meeting – A tight call and the 2026 policy …
24th November 2025
The Bank of England and European Central Bank’s final decisions of 2025 follow a week after the Fed’s and close a year in which all three have been trying with mixed success to steer inflation back to 2 percent. What will they do in their last policy …
The sheer volume of current geopolitical noise can be bewildering for investors. How is the ebb and flow of US-China tensions affecting global economic activity? Is a more aggressive US foreign policy fundamentally changing macroeconomic outcomes? Are …
12th January 2026
South African financial assets have made a strong start to the year, supported by the perceived political stability of the Government of National Unity and better terms of trade. But risks to the outlook remain. The surge in metals prices may run out of …
27th January 2026
Concerns about the direction of policymaking in Indonesia have intensified since President Prabowo took office in late-2024. Markets are signaling anxiety over creaking fiscal discipline and the potential erosion of central bank independence following the …
As 2026 begins, the drivers for Asian markets are crystallising. Geopolitical headlines remain a constant, while equity markets continue to lean on a narrow – and potentially fragile – set of narratives. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is …
7th January 2026
President Donald Trump has turned his attention back to trade policy in recent days, threatening to resurrect higher reciprocal tariffs on many countries in another few weeks. He has also indicated that product-specific tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals …
11th July 2025
The further fall in GDP in May provided yet another excuse to talk down the UK economy. But there is some evidence that we are past the worst and the situation will improve from here (or, at the least, become less bad). Coming after the 0.3% m/m fall in …
Strong across the board The strong 83,100 rise in employment and the dip in the unemployment rate in June suggests the labour market is in better shape than we had feared, despite ongoing uncertainty around Canada’s trade relationship with the US. While …
Oil demand will struggle to keep up with OPEC+ The week started with oil traders digesting the news that OPEC+ decided to lift output by 548k bpd in August, putting the group on track to unwind it’s 2.2mn bpd of output cuts by September, one year earlier …
Supply-side approach has its limits Policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned about overcapacity and deflation, and are signalling a stronger intent to tackle the issue. On Wednesday, the People’s Daily ran a front-page commentary criticising the …
Tariffs stormed back into the headlines this week as the pause on ‘Liberation Day’ levies expired with a flurry of warnings about steep rate hikes unless deals are struck by 1st August. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the implications, while …
The media focus this week has continued to be on EU-US trade negotiations as the pause on Liberation Day tariffs was extended beyond the 9 th of July deadline and President Trump threatened to send a letter raising tariffs on the EU again. But in the …
We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak economic backdrop in Mexico and the risk of renewed …
Sharp fall in June inflation could spur rate cut talk The major data release next week will be the consumer price inflation data for June – the last set of inflation numbers before the RBI’s next policy announcement on Wednesday 6 th August. We think the …
A damp squib Liberation Day 2.0 was largely shrugged off by investors, with most equity markets in Asia rising over the course of the week. This could be because tariff deadlines were extended by three weeks, giving countries more time to agree deals …
We think concerns about government deficits could put further pressure on long-dated bonds. Tests of investors’ nerves have come thick and fast lately, with the latest being a hike in tariffs in Canada. But, despite some small wobbles, the big picture is …
Deadline for trade deal extended to 1 st August The looming deadline for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs earlier this week proved to be a damp squib as Trump has now given Japan and a range of other countries until 1 st August to negotiate a deal. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Hangover continues, but signs of a recovery building The hangover from the burst of activity in Q1 ahead of rises in US tariffs and UK stamp charges continued in May with GDP …
Rates will bottom out in mid-2026 The RBA’s decision to leave its cash rate unchanged at its meeting this Tuesday shocked not only financial markets, which had fully priced in a 25bp cut, but also the overwhelming majority of economists. Setting aside the …
Egypt’s IMF delay reinforces need for reform The IMF has postponed the latest review of Egypt’s $8bn deal but, with external strains still present, officials appear keen to get privatisation and education reforms on track to unlock financing. A statement …
10th July 2025
Overview – Activity in the housing market has been struck in a slump since 2023, with still no end in sight. As Trump’s immigration and trade policies push up inflation this year, the Fed will be forced to keep policy restrictive – preventing mortgage …
Donald Trump’s planned imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazil for seemingly political reasons may represent a new milestone, but Brazil simply isn’t a big enough trading partner of the US to rattle global markets. For that to happen, negotiations with …
The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing inflation back to single digits and reining in the current …
Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and Central Europe than in Asia, but we’ve become less …
Auto exporters in China have adapted to the EU’s tariffs on EVs by lowering export prices and focusing on vehicles that are not subject to tariffs. Even if trade restrictions were to remain in place, the extent of China’s cost advantage means that …
Tightening cycle probably over, but currency now the key risk There’s little in the Brazilian June CPI print that changes our view that last month’s hike marked the end to Copom’s tightening cycle. But a lot will now depend on how the trade dispute with …
