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Almost all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, and we think they will remain under pressure until interest rate expectations in the US shift lower again. EM currencies have been no exception to the …
21st February 2024
The fiscal restraint shown by South Africa’s finance minister in today’s Budget was received positively in local financial markets, but the reality is that the government will struggle to meet its goals (indeed, it’s already doing so). And pressure on the …
An AI productivity boom. A Chinese structural slowdown. Aging workforces. In the coming decades, the global economy will be shaped by forces that will dictate which countries will make strides and which will stumble. Our Long Run Economic Outlook presents …
Rise in core inflation will give cause for concern to the SARB South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.3% y/y in January and the rise in core inflation is likely to spook an already-hawkish SARB, possibly pushing the start of an easing cycle …
EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated among highly rated sovereigns and borrowing does not …
20th February 2024
Nigeria saw sluggish growth over the second half of last year, and the latest falls in the naira mean inflation is set to rise even further over the coming months, which should prompt the central bank to finally spring to action with large interest rate …
Headline inflation in Brazil has declined in recent months, but a deeper dig into the data shows that underlying price pressures are starting to build again. Although another 50bp cut in the Selic rate at the next central bank meeting in March is nailed …
The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region. While the effects on the Gulf economies has been and will …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . PBOC eschews broad-based cuts, steps up property support Today’s 25bp cut to the 5-year LPR is clearly aimed at supporting the housing market. On its own it will not revive new …
Deep contraction highlights the extent of the conflict damage The 19.4% q/q annualised contraction in Israeli GDP in Q4 was much worse than had been expected and highlights the extent of the hit from the Hamas attacks and the war in Gaza. While a recovery …
19th February 2024
Ratings downgrade highlights realities in Israel The decision by Moody’s to deliver Israel’s first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken for …
16th February 2024
Can Milei tame inflation? The jump in inflation in Argentina to 254% y/y in January underscores the scale of the challenge the Milei administration faces stabilising the economy. The rise (from 211% y/y in December) reflected the full impact of the 50%+ …
South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana faces an uphill task in next week's Budget to convince investors that the government will be able to place the public finances on a sustainable footing. Mr. Godongwana will start his speech in parliament …
Tightening cycle comes to a close, but rates to stay high Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its policy rate on hold at 16.00% as expected today and we think that inflation pressures will prevent it from cutting interest rates for most of this year. Today’s …
Farmer protests won’t lead to big fiscal giveaways Widescale farmer protests have returned and have dominated the headlines this week. Farmers are currently marching from neighbouring states towards New Delhi in demand of higher prices for key crops; …
The Czech economy has had the weakest performance of any EU country since the pandemic, and we think that growth will disappoint expectations again in 2024. This will keep inflation contained and put pressure on the central bank to loosen monetary …
Weak end to 2023 The stagnation in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy remained very weak at the end of last year and we think the recovery this year will be slower than most anticipate. At the margin, the weakness of the latest activity …
15th February 2024
Saudi’s loose fiscal stance to continue (for now) Data released yesterday confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 as a whole and, as the government maintains high spending levels despite lower oil prices, the Kingdom will run larger …
South Africa’s fiscal strains have seen the government explore tapping revaluation gains on the country’s FX reserves held at the SARB. Utilising these funds to pay down the government’s debt would help to improve South Africa’s fiscal health. But there’s …
Inflation at near-30%, all eyes on CBN Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to 29.9% y/y in January and the latest sharp fall in the naira means that it is likely to reach close to 35% y/y over the coming months. We expect the central bank to …
Plunge in inflation seals the deal on a larger rate cut We’d expected a large fall in Czech inflation in January, but the collapse from 6.9% y/y in December to just 2.3% y/y shows that price pressures are dissipating even more quickly than we’d …
This webpage has been updated with additional analaysis, as well as a chart and table of key data. Inflation to remain low this year and next Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up from a two-year low of 1.5% y/y in December to 1.6% y/y in …
Inflation pressures unlikely to prompt another hike The stabilisation in Russian inflation in January, at 7.4% y/y, should provide cover for the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 16.00% at its meeting on Friday, rather than continue the …
14th February 2024
Capital inflows into EM bonds and equities have fallen sharply since January after the Fed pushed back expectations of the timing of rate cuts. The good news is that current account deficits in EMs have narrowed over the past year, meaning many EMs have …
The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices means that, if anything, overall incomes are likely to …
South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy finished last year with a whimper, but we think that easing electricity outages, weaker inflation pressures and less restrictive fiscal policy will support a modest pick-up in growth this …
At a standstill at the end of 2023 Q4 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that the region ended last year on a weak note, but the outlook for 2024 looks brighter. While soft external demand is likely to remain a drag on growth over …
Above-target inflation to keep NBR in a hawkish mood The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% again today and, while interest rate cuts are likely to start around mid-year, we think that monetary easing will be less …
13th February 2024
A key point that stands out from the raft of EM central bank decisions over the past couple of weeks is that policymakers are focussed much more on domestically-generated price pressures than the Fed. We expect a pivot towards monetary easing in the …
12th February 2024
Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company. Ultimately, we think this will force Pemex to seek a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. In the context of its continued hawkish communications, we doubt that the drop in headline consumer price inflation in January will be enough to convince the RBI to pivot yet. …
We’re trying a ‘quickfire round’ on this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to get Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing answering the questions that clients have been asking most frequently in recent days: Could inflation rebound? …
9th February 2024
SONA: Ramaphosa sets out policy plans South Africa’s President Ramaphosa delivered his State of the Nation (SONA) on Thursday. His speech celebrated the 30 th anniversary of the transition to democracy and laid out the ANC’s policy agenda ahead of the …
“High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. Although investors have pared back expectations for rate cuts by major central banks (notably the …
Is euro adoption the path forward for Czechia? The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro reignited at the start of this year and took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency …
Brazil: the hawkish case builds This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most expect this year. The …
We think that EM equities will deliver better returns in the next couple of years than they have since the pandemic. Returns are likely to be lower than those we expect from US equities but similar to those from other DM equities. We expect equities in EM …
… Tracking Turkey's Economic Policy Shift …
5th February 2024
The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively optimistic on the medium-term outlook and still think that …
RBI not ready to pivot yet There were no surprises from the RBI’s policy announcement this week, with the repo rate being kept on hold at 6.50% once more. We had even suggested that MPC member Jayanth Varma would dissent, and in the event he was the only …
Weakness underlying headline strength There was the usual seasonal surge in net credit in China in January that took new bank lending to a record high. The underlying story is less positive, with loan demand little changed and broader credit growth slower …
Rates on hold, Banxico to stay cautious even once easing cycle begins Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next …
8th February 2024
We expect government bond yields in emerging market (EM) economies to fall over the remainder of the year, helped by a broadening easing cycle and falling Treasury yields. While the big question around monetary policy in developed market (DM) economies is …
Bahrain taps bond market as repayments near This week, Bahrain became the latest emerging market to issue dollar bonds which will help it meet large upcoming debt repayments. But fiscal policy will need to be tightened in the coming years to put the …
CNB steps up its easing cycle The Czech National Bank (CNB) accelerated the pace of its monetary easing cycle today with a 50bp interest rate cut, to 6.25%, and the post-meeting communications support our view that an even larger interest rate cut is on …
Dragon years have been middling for economy The world’s largest annual migration of people is well underway, with millions of Chinese returning to their hometowns to spend the Lunar New Year holiday with their families. On Saturday, the Year of the Rabbit …
Mexican inflation drops, but Banxico to hold firm later today The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.9% in January means Banxico won’t feel comfortable enough yet to start an easing cycle at the Board meeting later today. Elsewhere, the further …
Inflation continues to slow, but looming devaluation will keep it high Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, …
Governor Karahan committed to tight policy, rate cuts some way off The communications from new Turkish central bank governor Karahan at today’s Inflation Report briefing will have helped to reassure investors that the change at the helm of the central …
The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation likely to remain above the 4% target for a few more months yet, we doubt the central bank will loosen …
