Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
We will be holding a Drop-In next Thursday at 15.00 BST discussing financial risk across the EM world. Register for the 20-minute online briefing here . Tensions in the Middle East rising after Israeli strikes The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied …
2nd August 2024
We've been here before We wouldn’t take Tuesday’s pledge from the Politburo to tilt stimulus towards consumption at face value. The leadership called for policies to lift incomes and enhance the capacity and willingness of low- and middle-income groups to …
Bond restrictions highlight investor wariness The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this week announced restrictions on foreign investment on all newly-issued 14-year and 30-year local-currency sovereign bonds. Effective immediately, foreigners will now only be …
Growing drumbeat of support measures Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks. First, they took the unusual step of discussing the current economic situation in the Third Plenum …
26th July 2024
Korea’s unbalanced economy Figures published earlier this week showed that GDP in Korea contracted in the second quarter of the year. While the outturn was below analyst expectations, it was exactly in line with our own estimate. The figures also …
Continuing blackouts in Egypt show need for a fix Egypt’s electricity blackouts have persisted this week and, while there is light at the end of the tunnel, the government needs to boost energy investments to avoid a repeat of power cuts in the coming …
25th July 2024
Nigeria: yet more spending…. Nigeria announced this week that it needs to raise its 2024 budget spending again, which will be funded by a windfall tax on banks. But efforts are needed to permanently boost revenues if Nigeria’s public finances aren’t to be …
19th July 2024
GDP breakdown points to weaker services activity The lower-than-expected Q2 GDP figures released earlier this week suggest that China’s economy has lost some momentum recently. The detailed sectoral breakdown, published a day after the headline data, …
External positions in good health ... Romania aside Balance of payments data released across the region this week showed that current account positions generally deteriorated in May. Poland recorded a monthly deficit of €63m, while Czechia had an external …
Slowdown in growth over the coming quarters The highlight of the coming week is the publication of the first estimate of Korean GDP growth for Q2. Korea’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year, with growth hitting 1.3% q/q, which …
Full Budget a key test for new government For India watchers, the Union Budget announcement on Tuesday 23 rd July will be one of the key economic events this year. In election years, the Union Budget takes place later than normal and often contains new …
Trump sets out his stall for warmer Saudi ties Donald Trump has outlined his intentions to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election. But potential tensions over the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict mean that, for now, Saudi officials …
18th July 2024
CBN hints at rate cuts but inflation risks linger Nigeria’s central bank governor this week hinted that rate cuts may soon be on the cards but there are still upside inflation risks that could scupper those plans. Governor Cardoso’s remarks at an event in …
12th July 2024
Narrowing in Hungary’s budget deficit may not last Hungary’s government announced a new set of measures this week to increase tax revenues and to avoid the budget deficit slipping below its target this year. The government said that firms that have …
PBOC tweaks policy framework The PBOC expanded its toolkit this week to help strengthen its day-to-day management of interbank rates. In addition to the repo operations it conducts each morning, mostly at 7-day maturities, the bank will also perform …
Korea strike highlights inflexible labour market A trade union representing approximately 30,000 workers at Samsung Electronics this week urged its members to take part in an indefinite strike. The announcement was made on Wednesday, which was supposed …
Full Budget a key test for new government The Finance Ministry confirmed this week that the full Union Budget for FY24/25 will be unveiled on Tuesday, 23 rd July (recall that during election years, an “interim” Budget is held in February). We’ll be …
The economic impact of Saudi’s new pension age New pension directives laid out in Saudi Arabia have raised the retirement age in the Kingdom. The potential boost to the size of the labour force could strengthen GDP growth over the coming decades. The …
11th July 2024
Hawks rule the roost Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central banks strengthen the view in our recent Outlook that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (Russia) and kept on hold for longer than most …
5th July 2024
Indonesia needs reform not tariffs Indonesia has become the latest country in Asia to announce measures to stem the flow of cheap imports from China. It is planning to impose tariffs of up to 200% on a range of products, including footwear, clothing, …
Drop in long-term yields has made PBOC uneasy On Monday, the PBOC announced that it would start borrowing Chinese government bonds (CGBs) from primary market dealers (i.e. the major banks). While it didn’t elaborate further, the aim is clearly to shore up …
A facelift for Egypt’s cabinet, but no shift in policy Egypt’s cabinet was shaken up this week but the new faces are highly unlikely to diverge from the economic policy path their predecessors were on, particularly when it comes to the public finances. …
4th July 2024
Supply-side reform won’t fix consumer weakness This week, the government published guidelines on creating “new consumption scenarios” with the aim of “coordinating the expansion of domestic demand while deepening supply-side structural reforms”. We’ve …
28th June 2024
Further economic weakness in Korea Korea’s economy weakened markedly in May. Data published today show that retail sales fell by 0.2% m/m last month, a second consecutive monthly fall. With the labour market cooling and high interest rates weighing on …
More to plunge in inward FDI that meets the eye The Q1 2024 Balance of Payments data released this week has refocused attention on the slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. In the four quarters to Q1, net FDI inflows dropped to US$26.5bn, …
Egypt needs to adapt to keep the lights on Daily blackouts in Egypt have returned as gas shortages intensify and, while the government can afford to spend its way out of the issue for now, climate risks require a permanent shift in strategy. Temperatures …
27th June 2024
Bond buying redux PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng this week again flagged the PBOC’s plans to start buying and selling government bonds and again argued that this wouldn’t constitute QE. (See our earlier discussion of the issue here .) The purpose of the new …
21st June 2024
SA: GNU stability will face reform challenges The announcement that a Government of National Unity (GNU) has been formed in South Africa, led by the ANC and DA has triggered a rally in local financial markets. But this may prove to be the easy part; …
Space for interest rate cuts narrows across CEE The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller 25bp interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme of policymakers in several parts of the EM world moving towards a slower …
Lebanon on verge of being drawn into the war Skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have intensified, culminating in Israel’s approval of an “offensive” into Lebanon this week. Not only does this threaten to exacerbate Lebanon’s prolonged …
20th June 2024
Nigeria: Food price rises put focus on government A recent surge in food prices in Nigeria presents real risks to the optimistic tone that the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. Tackling the structural impediments to food …
14th June 2024
EU announces new tariffs on China The immediate macroeconomic impact of the EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week are likely to be fairly small. As we noted here , the EU imported 440,000 EVs (€9bn) from China over the past year. …
Still a bright future in Europe China protested the European Commission’s (EC) imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a good outcome. The European tariffs, …
Morocco: riding the EV wave Morocco’s domestic auto industry has boomed over the past decade and is drawing investment from major firms in Europe and China. With plans to more than double output in the coming years, the sector is likely to provide a …
13th June 2024
ANC’s unity government talks likely to be fraught South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non-starter, …
7th June 2024
CBRT reserves on the rise The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves in the past two months, alongside the sharp reduction in the central bank’s FX swap programme, has taken the CBRT’s net FX position into positive territory for the first time in four years. …
Equities up at the end of an extraordinary week The dust is settling on an extraordinary week for domestic politics and financial markets. Equities rallied on Monday (See Chart 1) following the release of election exit polls at the weekend pointing to a …
Weak growth to prompt Thailand rate cut We expect the Bank of Thailand to start its easing cycle on Wednesday. The economy is certainly in need of support. Although GDP returned to growth in the first quarter of the year, output was still only 1.7% above …
UAE emerges as clear winner from OPEC+ decision The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower this year means that GDP growth across the Gulf will be a little weaker than we had previously expected. However, the UAE came away from the meeting the …
6th June 2024
What to watch after Mexico’s election Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday to elect thousands of local officials, a new congress and the country’s next president. We have covered the macroeconomic implications of the election in several pieces – all of …
31st May 2024
South Africa’s looming coalition talks Two days have passed since South Africa’s polling day and, with over 70% of votes counted, the ANC’s vote share is set to be fall well short of a majority. A coalition with one of the larger opposition party now …
Russian tax hikes: important but not large enough The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the …
Government spending set to reaccelerate The official PMIs for May published today were disappointing. Taken at face value, they imply that the improvement in economic momentum earlier this year has stalled. One reason appears to be that government …
Stick or twist for OPEC+ Oil markets are gearing up for Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting which looks set to be a close call on how the group decides to take forward oil policy. OPEC+ has reduced its oil output by 3.2mn bpd since October 2022, but oil prices have …
30th May 2024
South Africa's pivotal election looms There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will ally with. The ANC’s vote …
24th May 2024
Still too early for nominal TRY appreciation The Turkish lira has been surprisingly stable over the past two months and Finance Minister Simsek noted this week that the currency would have actually appreciated had the central bank not been buying dollars …
Mexico’s election race enters the final phase Next week marks the final week ahead of Mexico’s election, in which all seats in congress, thousands of local government positions and, most importantly, the presidency are up for grabs. The opinion polls …
Pullback in deposit growth is not a bullish signal After picking up during the pandemic, growth in bank deposits has slowed sharply recently. (See Chart 1.) They even fell outright in April, by a record RMB3.9trn, though this may partly reflect …
US pulling Saudi back from China’s orbit US officials this week suggested that a mooted grand deal with Saudi Arabia could be signed off in the coming weeks. This would redraw how the Kingdom aligns itself in a fracturing global economy. Jake Sullivan, …
23rd May 2024
Abinader again The Dominican Republic’s general election on Sunday is likely to buck Latin America’s anti-incumbency wave. Opinion polls point to current president Luis Abinader comfortably winning re-election. Indeed, some of the latest surveys put him …
17th May 2024
