Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Overview – China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. Domestic Demand – A ramp up in fiscal spending should boost domestic demand in …
25th June 2024
Overview – The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4 th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth than most are expecting. We think that a …
Overview – The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to be soft in the coming quarters. This is …
20th June 2024
Overview – We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target in most countries and likely to …
Overview – The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in core economies, notably Germany, while the …
Overview – Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple …
Overview – Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the outlook will become more challenging from 2025 as …
18th June 2024
Overview – A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to slow as the influence of the previous import …
4th June 2024
While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK interest rates will still be as high as 4.00% by the end of …
29th April 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed more slowly from here …
3rd April 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US will continue to …
28th March 2024
Overview – With inflation easing and domestic demand struggling in much of emerging Asia, central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates soon. The one remaining concern for policymakers is the fear of further falls in their currencies. But this …
27th March 2024
Overview – China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. Domestic Demand – State investment can make up for lacklustre consumption, …
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults. Monetary and fiscal policy will generally …
Overview – Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very tight, we’re pushing back our forecast for …
Overview – We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in productivity and looser policy should drive a rebound …
26th March 2024
Overview – Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply in recent months but in some parts of the …
Overview – Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process has largely run its course and the strength …
Overview – Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa, external financial support has mostly …
25th March 2024
Overview – After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI inflation will fall from 3.4% in February to below …
Overview – Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our forecasts are based on the assumption of no …
21st March 2024
Overview – The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be cautious amid a softening labour market. …
15th March 2024
Overview – India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple of …
13th March 2024
Overview – The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at its April meeting. However, price …
6th March 2024
The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in structural decline, we expect global growth to slow …
20th February 2024
Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt yields will decline from 3.90% now to around 3.25% by …
30th January 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform …
13th December 2023
Overview – Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf over the …
Overview – We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve pencilled in rate cuts in Australia in Q2 and …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks an unusually large variation in prospects at a country level. Many of the EMs that fared surprisingly well in 2023, …
12th December 2023
Overview – The euro-zone will remain in or close to recession in the first half of 2024 as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is tightened. Headline inflation has already …
Overview – Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all next year. Weak growth and a return in inflation to the 2% target will leave scope for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates sharply, with the …
7th December 2023
Overview – Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to central banks’ targets will take time and we …
Overview – Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be constrained by tight fiscal and monetary policy …
Overview – The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations. In contrast, the Andean economies are set …
Overview – Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease, interest rate cuts are likely to come on to …
Overview – As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates eventually falling to between 3.00% and 3.25% in …
6th December 2023
Overview – China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and …
Overview – India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also that food inflation has picked up again, the …
5th December 2023
Overview – With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for the economy, but the runway is longer. And …
Overview – Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation set to gain momentum, we expect the Bank …
4th December 2023
While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates will still be as high as 4.50% by the end of 2025. We …
30th October 2023
Note: We discussed the key takeaways from our Q4 Global Economic and Markets Outlooks in a Drop-In on Wednesday, 11 th October. To view the recording Click here . Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We think that the now popular assumption that …
3rd October 2023
Overview – We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.1% this year to only 0.8% in 2024, with the economy still likely to experience a near recession around the end of this year. Core inflation will continue to fall back to the 2% target by mid-2024, with much …
29th September 2023
We think the “higher-for-longer” narrative that has taken hold in the market won’t last through 2024. We suspect that central banks will generally cut faster than investors seem to expect and that, as a result, the bond market sell-off will turn into a …
28th September 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and Eastern …
Overview – Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and fiscal and monetary policy will need to stay …
27th September 2023
Overview – We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain conditions should keep headline inflation on a …
Overview – China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. Consumer Spending – …
Overview – We expect another few quarters of near-zero GDP growth to lead to an annual gain of just 0.7% next year. Even with higher oil prices, the weakness of economic growth leaves scope for CPI inflation to fall back to the 2% target in 2024. That …
26th September 2023
