China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and …
29th February 2024
The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have edged higher in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on that region's currencies. While we no longer …
28th February 2024
We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will deliver a bit more policy rate cuts this year and next than investors currently anticipate. As a result, we forecast that Treasury yields will end 2024 slightly below their current levels, putting …
Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (February 2024) …
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little this year but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s output cuts should gradually reverse from the end of this quarter but will keep a lid on economic …
26th February 2024
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024) …
23rd February 2024
The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a trend we expect to continue this year. But we think the Andean economies are on track to stage a recovery. The big falls in inflation in the region are behind us …
22nd February 2024
India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made a flying start to 2024 too. While inflation eased last month, we think it will be a slow grind back to the 4% midpoint of the RBI’s 2-6% target range. That …
Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait and watch” mode in the near term, given lingering risks to the inflation outlook. However, we think concerns about inflation persistence are overdone. Goods inflation is already …
The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect continued economic resilience to prevent inflation from …
21st February 2024
All-property values are down by 15% since mid-2022. But, with cap rates set to climb toward 5.5% by the end of the forecast period, we think capital value falls have some way to go still, with the total decline set to reach 26%. For offices, the …
20th February 2024
GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters but we don’t think the economy is in recession and should return to growth this year. While the gap between nominal wages and inflation is closing fast, the wage-price virtuous cycle will receive a boost when …
The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will cause a 3% increase in prices this year. The large rise in …
19th February 2024
We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform …
15th February 2024
Another rise in all-property yields in Q4 helped valuations improve slightly. But on our measure all-property still looks substantially overvalued. Looking ahead, a fall in alterative asset yields will help valuations gradually improve this year, but they …
8th February 2024
The euro-zone will remain close to recession in the first half of the year as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is tightened. Headline inflation will be close to the ECB’s 2% …
The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen below the 2.0% target, and further declines in utility …
7th February 2024
Oil prices are likely to remain buffeted by supply fears as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues. However, we think there will be support on the demand side later in the year as monetary policy in most major economies is loosened. By …
6th February 2024
Energy prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. If energy production continues to be largely unaffected, we expect most prices to fall further by the end of the year. Greater …
5th February 2024
Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and stabilising economic growth in advanced economies. In addition, construction activity in China is robust and we think support for property developers will stabilise the sector and …
2nd February 2024
High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave scope for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates sharply, …
31st January 2024
Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023, but we think that the disinflation process is entering a more difficult phase in 2024 as demand is beginning to recover. While monetary easing cycles are likely to …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on the region's currencies. …
30th January 2024
We expect “safe” assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely informed by our belief that investors are still underestimating how quickly and/or how far many central banks will cut interest rates over 2024-2025. That backdrop of …
Our latest Global Markets Chart Pack is embedded below. We think that the Fed and several other DM central banks will deliver more policy rate cuts this year and next than investors currently anticipate. As a result, we forecast that Treasury yields will …
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf over the first half of …
London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other regions and the deterioration in affordability due to high …
25th January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we expect to continue this year. In contrast, the Andean economies are on the recovery path and growth will accelerate this year. In Chile and Peru, inflation is now …
Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will stabilise in the first quarter of 2024. But given historically narrow yield spreads, we doubt we will see much yield compression ahead either. As the economy …
24th January 2024
EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies where growth was surprisingly strong last year will slow by …
23rd January 2024
If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will boost demand as some first-time buyers who put their …
22nd January 2024
As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of this year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting from March onwards, with rates eventually falling to between 3.00% and 3.25% in early 2025. The …
Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the tide is turning once again. This partly reflects declines in key input costs such as lithium, as well as huge growth in global manufacturing capacity, particularly …
18th January 2024
Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait and watch” mode in the near term, given lingering risks to the inflation outlook. However, we think concerns about inflation persistence are overdone, especially with tradables …
India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of the upcoming general election. Given also that headline consumer price inflation is likely to …
17th January 2024
We anticipate that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2024, but more gradually than they have recently from 6.8% now to 6.25% by the end of the year. That won’t be enough to bring a great deal of stock on the market. At the same time, we expect a …
We expect GDP growth to slow to a crawl this year, weighed down by weak consumption growth and sluggish export growth. While the virtuous cycle between prices and wages has shown signs of a slowdown in recent months, it will soon receive a boost when …
11th January 2024
ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will prompt them to start cutting in April. And in contrast to …
10th January 2024
Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
5th January 2024
Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not been directly affected, but the Israel-Hamas conflict together with the tensions in the Red Sea have increased volatility in energy markets. We expect oil …
4th January 2024
The run of softer-than-expected news on CPI inflation and wage growth means we now expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner than before. Our forecast is that rates will be cut from 5.25% in June and will fall to 3.00% in 2025. The markets …
Interest rate cuts across advanced economies this year will give some boost to economic activity, although it will remain relatively subdued. Nonetheless, industrial metals demand growth will pick up. Supply growth will cap price rises for some metals, …
3rd January 2024
Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) …
28th December 2023
China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and exports set …
