Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The scheduled reduction in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of October is unlikely to trigger a further precipitous fall in house prices as some have suggested. Nevertheless, it certainly won't help the market at a time when millions of …
6th July 2011
CoreLogic's house price data for May provide further evidence that the five-year long decline in prices may be drawing to a close. We remain concerned that prices may yet slip a little further. Either way, the chronic lack of demand and still high excess …
1st July 2011
April's Case-Shiller house price data support other evidence indicating that the rate at which prices are falling has eased. On some measures, prices are actually rising. We still believe that prices will edge lower throughout this year before finding a …
29th June 2011
A continuation of tight credit conditions for first-time buyers and a foreclosure pipeline full of homes bought with sub-prime loans will mean that house prices at the low end of the market will continue to fall at a faster rate than prices at either the …
28th June 2011
The modest 2.1% m/m decline in new home sales in May shows that homebuilders are still struggling to sell new builds at a time when housing demand remains in the doldrums and there is fierce competition from foreclosed homes. … New Home Sales …
24th June 2011
The statement issued today after the end of the two-day FOMC meeting offered no hint that the recent signs of a renewed economic slowdown might tempt the Fed to launch another round of large-scale asset purchases. As Chairman Ben Bernanke explained in his …
23rd June 2011
Most of the 3.8% m/m fall in existing home sales in May, to a six-month low of 4.8m from 5.0m in April, was probably due to the unusually severe weather. Nevertheless, the data are still overestimating the level of sales by up to 20% and a chronic lack of …
22nd June 2011
We expect house prices to fall a further 3% this year, resulting in a 5% decline in the year as a whole. Although prices may find a floor some time next year, a chronic lack of demand will probably mean they won't rise consistently until 2014. … Prices …
21st June 2011
As most of the sharp fall in housing starts in April was due to the tornados that battered the south of the nation last month, homebuilding activity will probably bounce back in May. That said, at a time when construction costs are rising and selling …
17th June 2011
The sharp fall in house prices in the first quarter provided further confirmation that this housing crash has been larger and faster than the one during the Great Depression. On the Case-Shiller index, the 1.9% q/q fall in the first quarter meant that …
15th June 2011
For anyone bamboozled by the abundance of house price indices, which can sometimes provide starkly different messages, we consider the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices to be the most useful and reliable. As it stands now, most of the evidence suggests …
14th June 2011
The fall in 30-year mortgage rates to a six-month low of 4.5% has not boosted mortgage applications for home purchase as more lenders are asking for a higher down payment at a time when more households are unable to afford it. … Mortgage Applications …
8th June 2011
The further fall in house prices in the first quarter means that on the Case-Shiller index prices have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression. On that occasion, the peak in prices was not regained until 19 years after they first …
31st May 2011
The housing downturn has gone from bad to worse, with the FHFA index showing that prices in the first quarter fell at a faster rate than at any time since the height of the financial crisis in late 2008. This time prices are not being driven down by a …
25th May 2011
The second consecutive strong rise in new home sales in April may even underestimate the recent rebound since the data exclude condo sales, which are probably performing better than sales of new single-family homes. Nonetheless, total new home sales are …
24th May 2011
Despite the modest fall in the share of mortgages in foreclosure in the first quarter, over four million homeowners are still in serious danger of losing their home. Moreover, it is worrying that nearly two years after the recession ended, the share of …
19th May 2011
17th May 2011
Over the next five years the rental market will be the best performing part of the residential housing market, with the multi-family sector doing particularly well. A sustained rise in rents is clearly not good for tenants, who are still feeling the ill …
16th May 2011
The latest evidence suggests that prices have started to fall at a faster pace once again. After having dropped by 1.0% m/m in both December and January, prices on the seasonally adjusted FHFA index fell by 1.6% m/m in February. Admittedly, the …
11th May 2011
Recent news has highlighted the severity of the renewed downturn in prices of single-family homes. Although condominiums will not escape altogether, over the next year or so condo prices are likely to fall by less than prices of single-family homes. … …
9th May 2011
Despite the latest fall back in mortgage rates, appetite for mortgage borrowing is still stuck in a rut. This supports our view that the cost of borrowing is not the problem. Instead, a number of long-term structural factors are constraining mortgage …
4th May 2011
In his first post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the impression that the Fed is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. … Fed in no hurry to tighten …
27th April 2011
The further decline in the homeownership rate in the first quarter provides yet more evidence that Americans are now less able and less willing to buy a home. The flipside is that the resulting increase in the demand for rental accommodation will boost …
House prices have started to drop at a faster pace and on some indices are now falling at rates not seen since the financial crisis. In contrast to most forecasters, we always thought that prices would fall throughout this year, by at least 5%. That …
26th April 2011
We are hopeful that the increase in new home sales in March marks the end of the downward trend that had taken sales to a record low. But with existing homes being sold at much more competitive prices, the demand for newly built properties will recover …
25th April 2011
March's existing home sales data provide more evidence that the economic recovery has bypassed the housing market. What's worse is that these figures may be overestimating the level of sales by up to 20%. Once revisions have been made in the summer, …
20th April 2011
The rebound in housing starts in March does little to hide the fact that homebuilding activity remains close to rock bottom. With both the demand and need for new homes still very low, housing starts aren't going to enjoy a more meaningful recovery for a …
19th April 2011
The combination of favourable valuations and exceptional affordability has made housing look like the bargain of a lifetime. But structural constraints on demand are preventing households from taking advantage. Add in the still poor supply picture, and …
18th April 2011
The further fall in house prices at the end of last year has made housing look more under-valued relative to income than ever before. (See Chart below.) This appears to be attracting cash buyers and investors back into the market. They have driven 70% of …
7th April 2011
Continued low mortgage rates and favourable housing valuations are still failing to stimulate mortgage demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in March still close to record lows. … Mortgage Applications …
6th April 2011
The housing market began 2011 in the same vein as it ended 2010, with prices heading south. Moreover, while the latest risk retention housing reform proposals are good for the long-term health of the market, they would surely drag out any recovery. … …
29th March 2011
The 16.9% m/m decline in new home sales to a record low of only 250,000 annualised in February, from 301,000 the month before, underlines just how bad conditions in the housing market still are. … New Home Sales …
23rd March 2011
The 9.6% m/m decline in existing home sales in February illustrates that, even if we allow for the possible impact of unseasonably severe weather last month, the housing market is still clearly years away from staging any meaningful recovery. … Existing …
21st March 2011
Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2 will be completed as planned. … Fed likely to complete …
15th March 2011
Mortgage applications continued to trend lower in February, underlining the point we've made before that the latest rebound in home sales is being driven almost exclusively by cash buyers and investors. … Mortgage Applic'ns (Feb.) & Negative Equity …
9th March 2011
7th March 2011
The fact that the recent rebound in existing home sales has been predominantly driven by cash buyers and investors places a question mark over the sustainability of that rebound. The concern is that there may be a limited pool of such buyers and that …
2nd March 2011
The outlook for new home sales will remain bleak as long as foreclosed homes can be snapped up at heavily discounted prices. Meanwhile, by excluding many foreclosed sales, the FHFA index may not be capturing the full downward pressure on prices. … New …
24th February 2011
The upward trend in existing home sales is set to remain slow and steady rather than speedy and spectacular. … Existing Home Sales …
23rd February 2011
House prices will decline by at least 5% this year. The real danger is that a vicious circle of falling prices and rising foreclosures drags prices down even further. … Another year of falling …
22nd February 2011
The further fall in the Case-Shiller measure of national house prices at the end of last year took prices to a new cycle low, meaning that a double-dip is now officially underway. Prices are likely to fall further this year too, perhaps by another 5%. … …
The Obama Administration's recent proposals to wind down the government-owned institutions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and create a market in which private businesses are the primary source of mortgage finance are laudable. But there are four key …
17th February 2011
Better labour market conditions led to a significant fall in the share of delinquent mortgages at the end of last year. Further falls in the unemployment rate this year are likely to push the delinquency rate even lower, but probably not by much. … …
The recent rise in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has done little to dent affordability. Even a doubling in rates would leave our long-term measure of affordability below that seen before the housing crash. That said, high affordability will still not …
14th February 2011
The renewed downward trend in house prices continued towards the end of last year, with prices on the 20-City Case-Shiller index falling for the fifth month in a row in November. (See Chart below.) Prices on the alternative FHFA index were stable. …
11th February 2011
The rebound in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has driven mortgage applications lower once again. With demand for mortgage borrowing still so weak, it is hard to see housing activity strengthening much this year. … Mortgage Applications …
9th February 2011
House prices have diverged from the levels that might be justified by income fundamentals in six periods over the last 35 years, but none of these episodes can be explained by the same set of factors. This is why we do not forecast house prices using an …
2nd February 2011
The declining homeownership rate and the rising vacancy rate support our view that the combination of weak housing demand and high supply will continue to undermine house prices this year. Conversely, rising demand and tight supply in the rental market …
31st January 2011
The tone of the Fed's latest policy statement suggests that neither the most recent pick up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials. Worried by the still elevated unemployment rate and low …
26th January 2011
The impressive increase in new home sales in December is mainly due to the rush to beat the deadline of a tax credit in California. Without that boost, new sales would have been broadly unchanged. Moreover, new sales in California will probably fall this …
