The latest evidence suggests that the stabilisation in house prices seen over the summer is giving way to further price falls. In September, our seasonally adjusted measure of the CoreLogic index fell by 1.1% m/m. That was the largest drop in a year. Admittedly, the alternative Case-Shiller index was unchanged in August. But it is perhaps telling that the modest rises on this index in the previous few months have been revised down into small falls. The fall in home sales earlier in the year may therefore be starting to weigh on prices. We expect prices will continue to edge a little lower over the coming months.
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