Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
New home sales well-placed for another strong year The rise in new home sales in November came from a downwardly revised October reading but, looking through the volatility, sales have had a good year. Low mortgage rates, an increase in the supply of …
23rd December 2019
Overview – Mortgage interest rates have been close to 4% since October, and we expect they will stay at that level over the next couple of years. However, the support that will give to housing demand will be offset to some extent by tighter mortgage …
20th December 2019
Record low inventory constrains home sales The inventory of existing homes for sale dropped to a record low in November, which helps explain why home sales declined. We doubt that supply picture will improve over the next year and, coupled with tighter …
19th December 2019
Single-family starts set for another strong year Single-family building permits increased for the seventh month in a row in November. And, with homebuilder confidence hitting a 20-year high in December, starts are set for another year of steady growth. …
17th December 2019
Against the CFPB’s expectations, use of the qualified mortgage patch has not declined since it was introduced in 2013. If it is not replaced before it expires in early 2021, we therefore anticipate significant market disruption, and house prices are …
13th December 2019
Summary: A narrowing in the spread against the 10-year Treasury yield kept the 30-year mortgage rate close to 4% even as yields reached a three-month high in early November. Mortgage rates are likely to stay close to 4% over the next couple of years. But …
9th December 2019
Concerns around rising interest rates drive up home purchase demand Concerns that a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield would herald a rise in mortgage rates look to have persuaded some buyers to bring forward a home purchase application, with demand …
4th December 2019
With mortgage rates set to remain close to their current low level over the next couple of years, refinancing activity will be strong in 2020. Tighter credit conditions will constrain demand to some extent, but a decline in the number of households who …
3rd December 2019
House prices benefit from lower mortgage rates Both the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported a rise in annual house price growth in September, as low mortgage interest rates and tight existing home inventory supported values. But inventory is healthier in the …
26th November 2019
We now expect mortgage interest rates to stay close to their current level over the next couple of years. That will give some support to housing demand but, as was the case this year, offsetting factors such as modest economic growth, tightening credit …
25th November 2019
Homes sales edge up, but faltering confidence rules out sustained growth Existing home sales saw a marginal rise in October, but the gain wasn’t enough to reverse September’s dip and sales are still below their level in 2017. With the inventory of homes …
21st November 2019
Single-family building permits hit 12-year high A steady rise in new home sales since the start of the year helped single-family building permits reach a 12-year high in October. A gradual move toward constructing starter homes, which are in short supply, …
19th November 2019
Tight supply of affordable homes, and a relatively large increase in their price, are encouraging builders back to the starter home sector. But a slowing economy and tighter credit conditions rule out a substantial shift to cheaper homes. Instead, we …
14th November 2019
Households frustrated by the lack of affordable single-family homes for sale will find conditions are no better in the rental market, where the number of homes available for under $1,250 a month has dropped 40% since 2013. That will boost investor demand …
12th November 2019
Applications for home purchase drop back as economy slows Despite stable interest rates, demand for home purchase mortgages dropped back in October, and had reached a two-month low by the end of the month. Concerns around the economic outlook, a shortage …
6th November 2019
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate increased to an eight-week high in October, which helps explain why mortgage applications for home purchase have been trending down since mid-September. A lack of inventory, slowing economy and tightening credit …
5th November 2019
The number of vacant single-family homes for sale has dropped 25% since the start of 2012. But the situation is far worse at the cheaper end of the market, where the inventory of homes priced under $250,000 has halved over the same period. That will …
31st October 2019
Annual house price growth stable The rise in month-on-month house price growth in August largely reflects issues with the seasonal-adjustment of the Case-Shiller index, rather than a sign that growth is once again accelerating. Annual gains were stable, …
29th October 2019
New home sales unchanged in September New home sales more-or-less held their ground in September, leaving them close to 12-year highs. Healthy levels of inventory will help sales make further progress over the next year or so but, given overall flat …
24th October 2019
House price growth resumes its downward trend Annual house price growth on the FHFA measure resumed its downward trend in August, slowing to a five-year low of 4.6%. Lower mortgage interest rates should help price growth stabilise over the remainder of …
23rd October 2019
Some leading indicators of house price growth, such as the size of mortgage approvals and months’ supply of new homes on the market, are pointing to an acceleration in growth to around 5% y/y by the end of the year. But a slowing economy and tightening …
22nd October 2019
Homes sales drop back due to lack of inventory Following two months of gains, existing home sales dropped back in September. Given mortgage applications for home purchase have been more-or-less flat over the past few months, that decline in activity was …
Single-family starts make steady upward progress Strong new home sales have helped boost homebuilder confidence to a 20-month high, and single-family building permits and starts both recorded a small rise in September. The lack of existing home inventory …
17th October 2019
Over the past couple of years buyers of high-end homes in New York City have been hit by higher taxes, and can no longer hide their identity. That has cut home buyer demand and house prices, and may lead to an increase in rental supply. But, at the same …
16th October 2019
Summary: A slowing economy has increased concerns around job security, which has weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase even as mortgage interest rates have stayed close to three-year lows. Coupled with low levels of home inventory, that will …
11th October 2019
A hike in the threshold at which mortgages require a home appraisal, from $250,000 to $400,000, is long overdue and has the potential to reduce closing times, raise closing rates and boost house prices. However, with mortgages sold to or guaranteed by the …
9th October 2019
Overview – Mortgage interest rates recently dropped to three-year lows, but mortgage applications for home purchase are more-or-less unchanged from where they were at the start of the year. A slowing economy, tighter mortgage lending standards and lack of …
4th October 2019
Rise in mortgage rates dampens refinancing demand The first rise in mortgage rates since November last year dampened refinancing demand in September, but applications for home purchase saw a small gain. However that rise merely took home purchase demand …
2nd October 2019
A surge in demand for refinancing has stretched lenders’ capacity, lengthening the time it takes to close a mortgage. That has disrupted the usual relationship between pending and existing home sales. While that disruption should not last long, it means …
26th September 2019
New home sales bounce back from weak July The volatility in new home sales continued into August, with a rise of 7.7% m/m not quite reversing the fall recorded in July. Flat demand for home purchase mortgages over the past couple of weeks argues against …
25th September 2019
House price growth stabilises The gradual slowdown in house price growth seen over the past year came to a halt in July. Case-Shiller reported annual growth was unchanged at 3.2%, and the FHFA recorded a slight acceleration to 5.0%. Lower mortgage …
24th September 2019
Homes sales surprise on the upside Existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in August, to reach an 18-month high. But a number of factors argue against a sustained rise in activity. Demand for home purchase mortgages has seen only a …
19th September 2019
Rent controls usually discourage new rental developments. But the Californian bill that is set to be signed into law may in fact boost the construction of new units. New rental buildings are exempt from the restrictions and, by ruling out any new local …
18th September 2019
Low mortgage interest rates give starts a boost Even ignoring the surge in volatile multifamily starts, August was a good month for homebuilding. Single-family starts and permits both saw decent gains, as low mortgage interest rates, a solid labour market …
The sharp rise in the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate primarily reflects the speed at which yields dropped back. But tighter credit conditions also look to be playing a role. We expect the spread to ease back over the …
13th September 2019
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to its lowest level since late 2016, but that has not given much of a boost to home demand. Indeed, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over July and August. (See Chart 1.) A lack of …
11th September 2019
Home purchase demand drops despite further fall in mortgage rates August’s rebound in overall mortgage applications was driven by buoyant refinancing activity, while home purchase applications fell. A further drop in the 10-year Treasury yield means that …
4th September 2019
Concerns around the economic outlook have encouraged banks to tighten mortgage lending standards, offsetting some of the impact of lower interest rates on home sales. Surveys suggest that tightening will continue. Alongside low inventory, that will act as …
29th August 2019
Annual house price growth continues to ease Both the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported a further slowdown in annual house price growth in June. But with mortgage interest rates falling to near three-year lows and inventory tight, we doubt growth on the …
27th August 2019
New home sales volatile over the summer The substantial drop in new home sales in July is not as bad it looks, as a large upward revision to the previous month’s estimate meant that decline came from a 12-year high. A slowing economy rules out a strong …
23rd August 2019
Rental growth typically falls back during economic slowdowns, but we think rents will hold up relatively well over the next couple of years. With the rental vacancy rate close to record lows the market is starting from a position of a strength, and a lack …
22nd August 2019
Inventory falls to a 15-month low Existing home sales managed their first year-on-year rise for 17-months in July, but that is not the start of a sustained upward trend. Home purchase mortgage demand has not received much of a boost from lower interest …
21st August 2019
With mortgage rates set to drop to 3.8% over the next couple of weeks, and inventory tight, we have edged up our house price forecast and now expect a rise of 3% this year. But a slowing economy and tighter mortgage lending standards argue against a …
19th August 2019
Single-family starts continue their slow recovery Single-family starts and building permits both increased in July, as lower interest rates, a tight existing home market and the decline in the backlog of previously authorised homes have encouraged …
16th August 2019
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index has hit a record high, but the detail shows the share of households who see now as a good time to buy is still relatively low. High house prices and a lack of inventory are keeping that component of sentiment …
14th August 2019
The upcoming economic slowdown brings with it the risk of a rise in mortgage delinquencies. However, tighter mortgage lending standards since the financial crisis means borrowers today are more resilient to shocks. That will minimise payment problems from …
8th August 2019
Lower rates fail to attract more buyers to the market Despite a steady decline in mortgage interest rates, mortgage applications for home purchase had dropped to a five-month low by the end of July. The recent drop in the 10-year Treasury yield means …
7th August 2019
Summary: The fall in mortgage interest rates gave mortgage applications for home purchase a boost earlier this year, but a lack of inventory meant that did not translate into home sales. (See Chart 1.) Total single-family sales declined by 0.5% m/m in …
6th August 2019
The number of mortgage applications for home purchase jumped earlier this year, but those buyers came up against the tightest market conditions for 40-years. Increased competition for homes crowded out cash buyers, which helps to explain the growing gap …
2nd August 2019
Subdued demand leads to further slowdown in house price growth Annual house price growth edged back once again in May, with subdued demand and lender caution taking some of the heat out of the market. That slowdown is set to continue as the economy …
30th July 2019
