Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Jobless claims have reached 26 million, but by the end of last week the share of apartment tenants making a full or partial rental payment in April was down by just four percentage points compared to usual. That demonstrates tenants are still incentivised …
24th April 2020
New home sales see largest month-on-month drop in six years The impact of the coronavirus on the housing market was made clear in March new home sales, which saw the largest month-on-month fall in over six years. Subdued mortgage applications point to a …
23rd April 2020
Overview – The disruption caused by the coronavirus will lead to unprecedented falls in housing market activity. We expect home sales will drop by 50% q/q in the second quarter, single-family housing starts will see the largest quarterly fall since …
21st April 2020
Drop in existing home sales only the start of collapse in activity Existing home sales recorded their largest month-on-month decline in 4½-years in March, but given sales are recorded with a time lag that only represents the start of the fall in activity. …
The largest fall in new home buyer traffic on record in April supports our below-consensus call for a 50% q/q drop in new home sales in the second quarter. But the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home saw only a modest decline in …
17th April 2020
Coronavirus disruption leads to sharp fall in housing starts Both single and multifamily housing starts recorded large declines in March, as the coronavirus cut housing demand and disrupted the ability of homebuilders to work. Single-family starts will …
16th April 2020
The 27% drop in the price of residential REITs since late February is not a sign that house prices are set for a significant fall. The past relationship with house prices has been poor and on an annual basis single-family REIT prices are down by only 2%, …
9th April 2020
The coronavirus will cause a severe contraction in housing market activity. Mortgage applications for home purchase have already seen a 33% drop from their peak in late January. (See Chart 1.) A surge in unemployment to record highs, and restrictions on …
7th April 2020
Single-family housing starts were in a strong position prior to the arrival of the coronavirus and builders would, in normal circumstances, look through what is anticipated to be a temporary dip in demand. But disruption to supply chains and the …
2nd April 2020
Home purchase demand to halve Distress in the MBS market meant mortgage rates were volatile over March, but they started and ended the month at a record low of 3.47%. While that has helped refinance demand, applications for home purchase have collapsed as …
1st April 2020
The collapse in home sales, and hit to households’ income and savings, means house prices will fall back. But lender forbearance and the fiscal package will prevent a surge in forced sellers, and with lending standards much tighter a repeat of the …
27th March 2020
A surge in the unemployment rate to 12% in the second quarter will put upward pressure on the mortgage delinquency rate, but an additional $600 week in unemployment insurance should keep the rate under 7%. Moreover, given the temporary nature of the …
25th March 2020
New home sales face coronavirus shock from a strong position New home sales edged back from a 13-year high in February, but are now set for a sharp downturn as the coronavirus shuts down many parts of the home buying process. However, the high level of …
24th March 2020
Existing home sales set for 35% drop Existing home sales saw a strong gain of 6.5% m/m in February, but with the whole of California being locked down the risks are building to our initial view that sales will see a 35% drop in the second quarter. …
20th March 2020
Increasingly restrictive measures on people’s movement, and an imminent surge in unemployment, means we expect total home sales will drop by around 35% in the second quarter compared to the end of 2019. But the dip should prove short-lived. Assuming a …
19th March 2020
Rise in single-family housing starts pre-dates virus impact The rise in single-family housing starts in February pre-dates the outbreak of the coronavirus, and the outlook for starts has worsened considerably over the next few months. It will take time …
18th March 2020
The Fed promise to buy at least $200bn of MBS will support liquidity in the market and put some downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. But mortgage rates are also being pushed higher by lender caution and capacity constraints, with enforced home …
17th March 2020
Any disruption the coronavirus has on housing market activity won’t be evident in the home sales data until late April at the earliest. But other metrics can give an earlier indication of the magnitude of the shock. Given they can be carried out from the …
12th March 2020
With growing evidence that the coronavirus is turning into a pandemic, a hit to housing market activity is inevitable. No hard numbers have been released yet, but home sales are vulnerable to any disruption the virus will cause. Delaying a major purchase …
10th March 2020
Lower rates unlikely to boost applications for home purchase Concerns over the coronavirus have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows, which helped push mortgage rates to a seven-year low last week. That gave a substantial boost to refinancing …
4th March 2020
A sharp reduction in mortgage interest rates over 2019 increased the benefit of refinancing for recent borrowers, and as a result the median age of refinanced mortgages dropped to just two years in the third quarter, a 16-year low. That cut available …
3rd March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
New home sales start the year at a 12½-year high Warm weather and a healthy inventory helped new homes make a strong start to the year. A drop in home purchase mortgage applications during February means some of that surge will be reversed over the next …
26th February 2020
A flight to safety and belief that the Fed will cut rates have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows. But we doubt the 30-year mortgage rate will follow suit. Stretched lender capacity and increased caution will act to widen the spread against …
25th February 2020
House price growth ends 2019 on a strong note Low mortgage rates and tight inventory have supported house prices in recent months, with Case-Shiller reporting a jump in annual growth to 3.8% in December, a 10-month high. But looking ahead stretched home …
Existing home inventory sees further declines Given the plunge in the pending home sales index in December, the 1.3% m/m drop in existing home sales in January was smaller than we had expected. But that implies sales will see a more substantial fall in …
21st February 2020
Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage lending standards and a record low number of homes for …
20th February 2020
Warm weather supports housing starts in January The fifth warmest January on record meant housing starts only reversed some of their December surge, with single-family starts remaining above 1 million annualised. That impact will unwind over the next …
19th February 2020
The coronavirus is contained in the US, and with Chinese construction imports and non-resident buyers too small to have a meaningful impact, the housing market has so far escaped the virus largely unscathed. But if a widespread outbreak occurred, a …
12th February 2020
A decline in apartment completions helped keep rental vacancy rates low over the latter part of 2019. But strong multifamily starts over the past couple of years suggest completions will pick-up in 2020. (See Chart 1.) That will lead to a modest rise in …
11th February 2020
Refinance demand surges as mortgage rates hit three-year low A rush to safe-haven assets helped drive the 30-year mortgage rate to a three-year low by the end of January. That triggered a surge in mortgage applications for refinance, and a decent rise in …
5th February 2020
A rise in the number of vacant homes being repaired is an indication that some owners of empty properties are planning to put them up for sale. That may provide some relief to a tight housing market, but the impact is unlikely to be large. From close to a …
4th February 2020
While not at dangerous levels, the house price-to-earnings ratio does suggest home valuations are stretched. With mortgage interest rates unlikely to fall much further, and limited prospect for a relaxation in credit conditions, that will limit house …
31st January 2020
Annual house price growth ticks up Low mortgage interest rates and tight supply helped annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure increase for the second month in a row in November. But stretched valuations, and tightening mortgage lending …
28th January 2020
Disappointing end to the year, but new home sales set for a strong 2020 New home sales ended 2019 on a weak note, declining in each of the final three months of the year. But a high traffic of prospective buyers in January points to a swift recovery in …
27th January 2020
There are encouraging signs that the cost and availability of materials, lots and labour are all starting to improve. Coupled with strong new home demand, and a shift toward the construction of cheaper homes, that supports our above-consensus call for …
23rd January 2020
Record low inventory means existing home sales will hold steady in 2020 The inventory of existing homes dropped to another record low in December, which means the solid rise in sales seen over the month is unlikely to be the start of an upward trend. Even …
22nd January 2020
Single-family housing starts and new home sales set for another good year A lack of homes for sale means forecasters agree that existing home sales will just tread water over 2020. But we are more optimistic than others on the outlook for new home sales …
21st January 2020
Single-family starts reach 1 million annualised for first time since 2007 The surge in housing starts in December in part reflects a jump in the volatile multifamily sector and favourable weather conditions. But single-family starts are well-placed for …
17th January 2020
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate ended 2019 at close to 4%, and it is set to stay at around that level over the next or so. But tighter credit conditions will offset some of the benefit of lower rates on housing demand, and existing home sales will be …
14th January 2020
With mortgage rates set for a period of stability over the next couple of years changes in credit conditions, and in particular debt-to-income ratios, will be an important driver of house prices. Given the GSEs have been instructed to act …
10th January 2020
Demand for home purchase mortgages unchanged over 2019 A 1.9% m/m drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in December left demand at the end of 2019 unchanged from the start of the year. The boost to demand from lower mortgage interest rates was …
8th January 2020
New home sales well-placed for another strong year The rise in new home sales in November came from a downwardly revised October reading but, looking through the volatility, sales have had a good year. Low mortgage rates, an increase in the supply of …
23rd December 2019
Overview – Mortgage interest rates have been close to 4% since October, and we expect they will stay at that level over the next couple of years. However, the support that will give to housing demand will be offset to some extent by tighter mortgage …
20th December 2019
Record low inventory constrains home sales The inventory of existing homes for sale dropped to a record low in November, which helps explain why home sales declined. We doubt that supply picture will improve over the next year and, coupled with tighter …
19th December 2019
Single-family starts set for another strong year Single-family building permits increased for the seventh month in a row in November. And, with homebuilder confidence hitting a 20-year high in December, starts are set for another year of steady growth. …
17th December 2019
Against the CFPB’s expectations, use of the qualified mortgage patch has not declined since it was introduced in 2013. If it is not replaced before it expires in early 2021, we therefore anticipate significant market disruption, and house prices are …
13th December 2019
Summary: A narrowing in the spread against the 10-year Treasury yield kept the 30-year mortgage rate close to 4% even as yields reached a three-month high in early November. Mortgage rates are likely to stay close to 4% over the next couple of years. But …
9th December 2019
Concerns around rising interest rates drive up home purchase demand Concerns that a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield would herald a rise in mortgage rates look to have persuaded some buyers to bring forward a home purchase application, with demand …
4th December 2019
With mortgage rates set to remain close to their current low level over the next couple of years, refinancing activity will be strong in 2020. Tighter credit conditions will constrain demand to some extent, but a decline in the number of households who …
3rd December 2019
