Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
The CIPS/Markit commercial property construction PMI for September was as high as it has been at any point since 2007. Increased construction will clearly dampen rents over the long term. But focusing on the shorter term, this is yet another indication …
2nd October 2014
Net commercial property lending flows were negative again in August, but the least so since February last year. Gross lending, however, is rising and we would expect this to flow through to positive net lending before too long. … Lending to commercial …
29th September 2014
Since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is probably only a few months away from starting to raise interest rates, gilt yields are likely to depart from their three decade long downward trend soon. Even so, there is still scope for gilts to outperform US …
25th September 2014
Investment market activity has recently hit record levels and the strong, yield-driven capital gains have continued. However, our sense is that yields now need to pause, giving time for the underlying occupier market and rents to catch up. Capital value …
24th September 2014
Investment market activity cooled in August, although this was always on the cards after the record level of transactions in June and July. Over the past few months, the most active investors have been overseas funds, especially from the Far East and the …
22nd September 2014
Today’s ONS data confirm that institutions’ demand for commercial property remained strong in Q2, with timelier Property Archive figures showing that this momentum has been sustained into Q3. This will keep upwards pressure on capital values for some time …
19th September 2014
London office-based employment recorded another strong gain in the second quarter. Strong occupier demand may well prompt developers to raise the medium-term City and West End pipeline. But even that seems unlikely to be enough to prevent continued …
17th September 2014
In mid-2010, the Central London office development pipeline underestimated eventual completions by about 25%. A repeat of that over the next few years is certainly plausible. But even if City and West End office completions do exceed current projections …
11th September 2014
The current spread between leisure yields and the all-property average is higher than normal. Combined with decent rental growth prospects, this apparent scope for leisure yields to fall suggests that recent underperformance by leisure property won’t last …
10th September 2014
Respondents to the latest IPF Consensus survey expect both rents and capital values to rise throughout the next five years. But forecasters also envisage modest rises in yields from 2016 onwards, presumably reflecting tighter monetary policy. Although …
5th September 2014
Today’s construction PMI highlighted strong developer confidence about the prospects for commercial property occupier demand. Granted, the latest mergers and acquisitions (M&A) figures struck a more cautious note. But on balance, there was nothing here to …
2nd September 2014
Net commercial property lending was negative for the 32 nd consecutive month in July. But on the ground the flow of credit has improved, and this should show up in the official data sooner rather than later. … Lending to commercial property …
1st September 2014
The underlying operational performance of hotels is improving across the UK and this should keep investors interested in the sector. But yields are not obviously too high or too low, and domestic demand for UK hotel stays is unlikely to surge ahead while …
29th August 2014
Industrial rental value growth is already running at a faster pace than at the peak of the 2004-08 upswing. But given a favourable demand and supply balance, as well as the comparatively low level of rents, rental growth should continue to accelerate. … …
26th August 2014
Investment market activity was strong again last month, with the total value of deals (£12.3bn) over June and July the highest in a two-month period for more than a decade. Notable deals in July included regional retail and business parks, with demand for …
21st August 2014
Rental values for modern, large and regionally-dominant shopping centres have begun to recover, providing justification for the recent strength of investor demand for these properties. But even for the best shopping centres, rental values are still …
20th August 2014
Non-prime property yields fell by more than prime in every sector in Q2, but the biggest movers were regional office markets. Even after the recent sharp falls, however, yields for lower quality Rest of South East and Rest of UK offices are still …
13th August 2014
Reflecting the solid economic outlook, commercial property rental values should continue to grow steadily over the forecast period. Yields are also now likely to fall by more this year than we previously envisaged. This means that the current sweet spot …
11th August 2014
The latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital survey showed further upgrades to forecasters’ expectations for growth in rents and capital values both this year and next. But these revisions still may not have gone far enough. Yield-driven, double-digit gains in …
5th August 2014
The CIPS/Markit commercial property construction PMI eased a bit in July, but was still at a high level. In the long run, increased development activity will obviously dampen rents. But in the shorter term, this signals strong confidence in the prospects …
4th August 2014
Today’s RICS survey confirms a continued occupier market recovery in all sectors and regions, pointing to faster rental value gains in the coming quarters. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey …
29th July 2014
Net property lending was negative for the 31 st consecutive month in June. But while these figures show that the rundown of debt in the sector isn’t over yet, gross new lending has already begun to improve and net flows should soon follow suit. … Lending …
Economic output rose for the sixth consecutive quarter in Q2 and finally regained its pre-credit crunch level. Employment also continues to grow strongly, but spare capacity in the labour market means that wage growth is still weak. Inflation exceeded …
25th July 2014
Commercial property construction activity continued to rise strongly in Q2 and the upswing is clear in every region. This suggests that developers’ confidence about the prospects for occupier demand is healthy and that our forecast for a 3% rise in …
16th July 2014
The balance of probability suggests that the 1.6%m/m rise in IPD all-property capital values in June will not be matched in the second half of the year. Even so, the annual growth rate is set to accelerate further and could peak at 13% in the final few …
15th July 2014
The gap between reversionary potential and over-renting on existing leases is rising and this simple measure of income security suggests that risk premiums and property yields have further to fall. … Income security measure points to drop in property risk …
10th July 2014
The revival of housing market activity is likely to resume in the second half of the year and this shouldhelp to stimulate the retail warehouse occupier market. But given signs that rent-free periods havegrown in recent years, a stronger occupier market …
8th July 2014
The CIPS/Markit construction PMI showed that the pace of growth in commercial property development activity in June was more or less at a seven-year high. The implication is that developers’ are pretty confident about the prospects for occupier demand and …
2nd July 2014
Although the UK’s economic recovery has gone from strength to strength, markets have remained optimistic that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative for a while longer yet. Indeed, on the basis of its past relationship with measures of labour …
30th June 2014
The tone of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services survey was more circumspect than over the past six to 12 months, but the results were still encouraging for Central London office occupier markets. Indeed, there was nothing in the survey to alter our view …
Net commercial property lending flows were negative again in May, but the trend is improving. In other words, it would not be a surprise to see a pick-up in gross lending flows feed through to positive net lending by the end of 2014. … Lending to …
After a pause in April, the downwards drift in commercial property yields resumed in May. Combined with a rise in rents, this helped to boost capital values by 1.1%m/m. That pushed up the annual growth rate from 7.7% in April to 8.8% in May. A simple …
25th June 2014
The latest Credit Conditions survey suggests that lending activity in both the residential and commercial property sectors remains pretty well controlled. Admittedly, borrower demand is improving steadily. But lenders themselves generally continue to take …
23rd June 2014
Demand for commercial property from UK-based investing institutions has been strong so far this year and, with the economic recovery now embedded, it is likely to remain pretty solid for the foreseeable future. … Institutional Investment in Property …
19th June 2014
The value of commercial property deals completed in the past few months has been a little subdued. But rather than pointing to a market that is losing momentum, this is simply a natural consequence of regional and secondary property comprising a higher …
17th June 2014
London office-based employment has surged by 7% over the past year. This shows that occupier demand still has a considerable head of steam and that City and West End rents should continue to rise strongly. … Workforce jobs …
11th June 2014
The recent falls in government bond yields seem to reflect growing expectations that when interest rates start to rise they will not return to the levels seen prior to the financial crisis. Yet commercial property is no longer obviously cheap and we do …
10th June 2014
Today’s data releases covering construction sector activity and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) deals do nothing to challenge our forecast for a steady improvement in rental value growth over the rest of the year. … Construction PMI (May 14) and Mergers & …
3rd June 2014
Net commercial property lending flows were negative again in April. But April’s fall was the smallest since June last year. Indeed, there is little doubt that a gradual improvement in credit conditions has begun and we wouldn’t be surprised to see net …
2nd June 2014
The latest IPF Consensus survey envisages that commercial property rents and capital values will grow steadily over the next two to three years. But some forecasters seem to be growing more concerned about the threat to property yields posed by the …
30th May 2014
The latest De Montfort University (DMU) survey reports that lenders have now largely dealt with their legacy debt issues and that credit is becoming more widely available. However, the survey also suggested that the availability of development finance is …
27th May 2014
As the economic recovery broadens, we think that the commercial property market will follow suit. But while some indicators suggest that activity and confidence in the Midlands and the North are improving, other data show that the North/South divide has …
23rd May 2014
There was a 0.1%m/m increase in all-property rental values in April, causing the annual growth rate to edge up from 1.2% to 1.3%. Retail rents continue to struggle, but, by contrast, the office sector recovery is accelerating. Perhaps of most note in …
22nd May 2014
A recent modest sell-off by overseas investors in UK commercial property may well prove to be a blip. But even if it does signal the start of a new weaker trend, demand from UK-based investing institutions is strengthening and should help to underpin …
14th May 2014
Reflecting an upgrade to our medium-term Central London office rent expectations, our forecast for all-property capital value growth in 2014 has risen from 8% to 9%, and for 2015 from 5% to about 5.5%. But rather than small forecast changes, the main …
13th May 2014
Occupier demand in London’s City and West End office markets has exceeded our expectations in recent quarters. And the outlook for demand is also positive. This will eventually prompt a supply response, but that can’t happen immediately. Our upgraded …
8th May 2014
The latest RICS survey painted a picture of increasingly robust occupier demand for commercial property in all sectors, with industrial faring particularly well. To be fair, the survey also showed that developers have begun to mount a widespread supply …
7th May 2014
Today’s RICS and CIPS/Markit releases confirm that the commercial property occupier market recovery continues to get stronger and is increasingly broad-based. … RICS Property Survey (Q1) & CIPS/Markit construction PMI …
2nd May 2014
The run of negative, net commercial property lending flows extended to 28 months in March. But we suspect that, within the net figure, gross new lending by banks and building societies will be slowly improving. Meanwhile, other lenders, such as insurance …
1st May 2014
Commercial property development activity continues to rise strongly and every region is contributing to the expansion. This is another signal of a positive outlook. … RICS Construction Survey (Q1 …
24th April 2014
