Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The euro-zone commercial property outlook improved markedly during the second half of 2009. It now seems probable that almost all markets will experience positive total returns in 2010, with Spain and perhaps Greece the most likely exceptions. … Falling …
4th January 2010
Ireland’s exit from recession in the third quarter provides less grounds for optimism about the outlook for commercial property than it may initially seem. Although rental value falls in Ireland have been among the most pronounced in the euro-zone, …
18th December 2009
The breakdown of Italy’s Q3 GDP data provided some good news for its retail and industrial property markets. However, the full effects of the drop in output over the past 12-18 months have yet to be felt on commercial property rental values. And given our …
10th December 2009
The depressed level of economic activity in Russia is likely to keep the level of occupier demand for office space subdued over the next few years compared to levels recorded prior to the recession. As a result, although Russian office rental values may …
9th December 2009
Initial yields were stable in Q3 in most non-euro European markets. Investment activity rose, albeit from a low base. Rental values dropped further in Q3, especially in office markets. The largest overall falls in all-property rents to date have been in …
4th December 2009
Recent Swedish GDP data confirmed the fragility of its economic recovery. In our view, the modest growth has done little to suggest that Sweden’s commercial property occupier market downturn is nearing an end. Rental values are now falling across all …
1st December 2009
Over the next two years we think that the German economy will deliver slightly stronger growth than France. Even so, we think that the downside risks to French rental values are less, while a higher initial yield should boost the French income return. As …
25th November 2009
Retail property yields and rental values in Hungary have proved surprisingly resilient to date. But if we are right that the outlook for household spending in Hungary is among the weakest in the region, the Hungarian retail property market will almost …
24th November 2009
At the start of the recession, office vacancy rates across Europe varied hugely. Yet, however tempting it may have been to assume that rental values in markets with the lowest vacancy rates were better protected from the downturn, the past 12-18 months …
20th November 2009
Over the past two years the prime retail yield in Amsterdam has gone from one of the lowest in the euro-zone to one of the highest. Given the relatively weak performance of Dutch retail sales, this seems reasonable. But with several factors likely to …
17th November 2009
The relatively large falls in industrial rental values in Italy and Portugal appear to stem from poor links to Europe’s primary logistics corridors. With a strong dependence on their domestic economic recoveries, any improvement in rental value …
12th November 2009
In response to the recession developers have cancelled new construction projects where possible. Unfortunately the cutbacks made have not prevented office completions from rising this year. Although European economies are showing tentative signs of …
11th November 2009
October’s fall in the ICO measure of Spanish consumer confidence was not all bad news for property markets; confidence is still much higher than it was six months ago and expectations for the future have also improved. But with unemployment set to …
3rd November 2009
Overall, the latest RICS survey of global commercial property markets was more upbeat than the last. However, the improvements were mostly evident in Asia. Within Europe, both occupier and investment markets weakened further in Q3, contrary to signs of …
2nd November 2009
The tightening of credit conditions in Europe may be coming to an end. Coupled with improved investor appetite, European property transactions are on the up. Signs of life are also emerging in some occupier markets, but it is too soon to call an end to …
29th October 2009
Today’s ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that the tightening in credit conditions faced by business across Europe may now be at an end. At the same time, however, lenders do not yet appear ready to put that tightening into reverse. Thus, tight credit …
28th October 2009
Investors seem to have taken a broad-brush approach to pricing Prague and Warsaw office markets in recent years. Should there be more differentiation in pricing between these markets? We think that current yield differentials seem reasonable, but that if …
22nd October 2009
The huge fall in Warsaw office rental values seen over the past year looks disproportionate relative to both the strength of the Polish economy and to developments elsewhere in Emerging Europe. Excessive rental value growth during the boom, combined with …
19th October 2009
The first data for 2009Q3 showed a pick-up in European commercial property investment activity, accompanied by a picture of broad stability for initial yields. At the same time, rental values declined as the recession continued to feed through to occupier …
14th October 2009
On the face of it, the fourth consecutive monthly rise in French industrial output in August provides some grounds for hope that an improvement in industrial occupier demand might be imminent. However, much of the improvement stems from the temporary …
12th October 2009
At first glance it seems a little surprising that initial yields in France are now above those in Italy and the Netherlands. Foreign investors’ share of the French investment market has fallen significantly, while French rental values have dropped more. …
8th October 2009
The rise in office take-up in Oslo is unlikely to signal an end to the occupier market downturn. But with the rental correction well advanced, Norway’s relatively strong economy should ensure that office rental values in Oslo fall less far going forward …
6th October 2009
The latest GDP data for Denmark showed that the pace of economic contraction accelerated in 2009Q2. Despite the weak state of the economy, however, rental values have held up fairly well so far. But we suspect that mounting pressures will ensure rental …
1st October 2009
Initial yields on European industrial property have risen further from their trough in mid-2007 than office and retail yields. This could be due to a sharper downward revision in investors’ rental growth expectations for industrial property. Rather, we …
28th September 2009
In our most recent Euro-zone Commercial Property Analyst (Vol. No. 2/2009) we forecast that Greece and Ireland would experience the largest falls in retail rental values. The agents’ latest data support that prediction. Moreover, with both the Greek and …
24th September 2009
Retail and industrial rental values in Sweden have held up well relative to the office sector since the onset of recession. This is somewhat surprising given the huge rise in unemployment and collapse in industrial production. But pressures on rental …
22nd September 2009
The Turkish economy returned to growth in 2009Q2. Accordingly, we have nudged up our GDP forecasts for this year and next. Yet we are not convinced that these revisions will be enough to reverse the fall in occupier demand and, as such, we still see …
18th September 2009
The stock market rally has pushed the equity dividend yield down, making euro-zone commercial property look more attractive relative to equities, on one measure at least. However, the spread of the property initial yield over the dividend yield is still …
15th September 2009
Several factors have contributed to the resilience of industrial rental values in Poland. But downward pressure on Polish industrial rents continues to build and we do not think that more substantial falls can be avoided. That said, Poland’s short-term …
11th September 2009
Weak occupier demand pushed rental values down in most markets. Investment activity was very subdued, particularly in Emerging Europe. Initial yields in Emerging Europe rose in all sectors while yields in Western Europe showed some signs of stabilising. … …
10th September 2009
Industrial yields in Spain and Portugal moved out sharply in the first half of 2009. This is not surprising given the outlook for rental values in these economies as the recession bites. We expect only slow, drawn-out recoveries in both Spain and Portugal …
3rd September 2009
GDP data released late last week, suggest that the Polish economy may avoid recession this year. That suggests that the risks to our forecasts for a 45% peak-to-trough fall in capital values may now lie to the upside. But with the economy facing a period …
1st September 2009
The latest survey data from the ISAE show that Italian household confidence rose for the fifth consecutive month in August. On the face of it, this is encouraging news for the Italian retail commercial property market. However, we suspect that any …
27th August 2009
The outlook for the German occupier market remains weak, despite the fact that the economy grew in Q2. We think that the labour market, which has held up well to date, could weaken in the second half of the year as the impact of government support fades. …
25th August 2009
Paris has been among those Western European cities which have seen the sharpest declines in office rental values to date. However, we do not think that Paris has suffered disproportionately. Rather, government support packages for labour markets in other …
21st August 2009
European investment transactions rose marginally in Q2, but remain very low. Although upward pressure on yields abated, we are not convinced that property is fairly valued yet. Occupier demand remains weak and we expect further falls in rental values in …
18th August 2009
Government incentive schemes to boost new car demand have, to date, been very successful. The surge in new car registrations in Europe should support occupier demand for industrial and logistics space in the major car production and end-user markets. But …
13th August 2009
Recession in the European economy is hitting the labour market hard. Recent survey data from the European Commission show that employment intentions in the service sector may be turning a corner, but for now remain weak. What’s more, office rental values …
12th August 2009
The most recent edition of the RICS global commercial property survey highlights the severe occupier market downturn in emerging Europe. But while we think that the overall sentiment of the survey is realistic, it appears to single out Poland and the …
6th August 2009
Headline rental values in emerging European commercial property markets have been under downward pressure from both weak occupier demand amid the global economic downturn, and from currency depreciation. Despite the worst of the latter appearing to be …
4th August 2009
The latest global property survey from the RICS, released earlier this week, adds to the mounting, but tentative, evidence that investor demand for European commercial property could be stabilising. While this may be the case, however, any improvement is …
30th July 2009
Today’s bank lending survey from the ECB, suggests that there is little imminent prospect of an end to the tightening in credit availability and lending criteria for euro-zone businesses. For property markets this suggests that a lack of bank finance will …
29th July 2009
Recent data show yields stabilised in most euro-zone office and retail markets in 2009Q2. While there are reasons to believe this may be the peak for yields, we are sceptical. Investor demand has picked up, but is still down on 2008 levels. And the small …
23rd July 2009
Property investors’ appetite for emerging European markets is low and is unlikely to recover for the foreseeable future. For now, however, stronger economic fundamentals and relatively low risk of oversupply in both Poland and the Czech Republic suggest …
21st July 2009
In the current uncertain environment, any upturn in commercial property investment flows is likely to centre on Europe’s largest, most transparent markets. Yet investors will also be looking for markets with the best chance of delivering a sustained …
16th July 2009
May’s industrial production data releases for emerging Europe suggest the worst of the sector’s declines may have passed. On the face of it this is good news for industrial property markets. But, as the boost may prove temporary and a sustainable recovery …
14th July 2009
Our forecasts for euro-zone commercial property markets have not been altered significantly from those we released in March. (See European Commercial Property Focus, “Euro-zone capital values to fall by at least a third”, 31 March 2009). … Euro-zone …
13th July 2009
The commercial property correction is already well advanced but we think it has further to run. Indeed, in non-euro-zone Western markets we ultimately expect capital values to fall by between 40% and 50% from their peak. In Emerging European markets those …
Thanks to a comparatively small labour market downturn, rental value falls for prime property in Germany have been mild relative to elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, with growing signs that the Government’s labour market support is becoming less …
1st July 2009
Weaker currencies will have made commercial property in Sweden and Norway much cheaper for overseas investors to purchase. However, we doubt that this will prompt a surge in foreign capital inflows to these markets nor a floor for capital values any time …
25th June 2009
