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The latest import data out of China and India show that demand for gold in the two countries improved in September. We expect buying to have accelerated in October as consumers take advantage of substantially lower prices ahead of the wedding and festival …
27th October 2016
Although the broad measure of China’s industrial production eased back in September, metals-intensive sectors continued to do well. However, we would caution that the recent rallies in the prices of aluminium and steel look increasingly optimistic given …
US crude oil stocks fell last week as demand from refineries picked up. However, a rise in production and an uptick in imports meant the decline in stocks was only small. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (26th Oct. …
26th October 2016
The fall in oil prices over the last two years may explain why the efficiency of oil use is growing more slowly than before 2014, especially in non-OECD economies. However, government regulation and a recovery in prices should cause efficiency gains to …
China’s metals imports remained weak in September as higher prices, supply constraints and stronger domestic output weighed on volumes. … Another weak month for China’s metals …
25th October 2016
We have been positive on the outlook for cobalt prices for some time now but, if anything, prospects are continuing to improve. Ongoing concerns over artisanal mining in the DRC and strong demand from the lithium-ion battery sector should ensure that …
Most commodity prices were little changed this week despite strong activity data from China. Indeed, the only industrial metals to record gains were tin and lead whose prices were buoyed by ongoing supply concerns. Meanwhile, cuts to China’s output …
21st October 2016
World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show a 2% y/y rise in global steel output in September, slightly stronger than the 1.9% y/y growth a month earlier. After a weak start to the year, global production has now fallen by just 0.5% …
20th October 2016
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 1.2% y/y in September. However, in a reversal of the trend that has prevailed for much of this year, all the growth came from China. Output in the World ex …
The performance of industrial and precious metals prices has diverged in the last month. Industrial metals have benefited from more positive economic data out of China while precious metals have fallen on renewed expectations that the Fed will hike rates …
Crude oil and gasoline stocks diverged last week with a large drop in net-imports dragging crude stocks down and a fall in demand helping gasoline inventories build. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
19th October 2016
Commodity prices have generally risen in the last month, despite a further appreciation of the US dollar. That said, the likelihood of a US interest rate hike before end-2016 weighed on precious metals. We would caution that some commodity prices, …
The recent more positive tone in commodity markets has been helped by a number of tailwinds that may be about to fade, if not reverse. The boost to Chinese demand from policy stimulus now already appears to be fully priced in, while a resumption of Fed …
18th October 2016
The prices of most industrial commodities fell this week, as the US dollar continued to appreciate. Doubts about whether OPEC’s plans for an output quota will lead to any meaningful cuts to supply weighed on oil prices, while copper was also hit by a …
14th October 2016
The negative impact on prices of a large rise in crude inventories was more than offset by sharp falls in stocks of gasoline and distillates as refinery utilisation dipped again. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Oct. …
13th October 2016
Exchange stocks of metals have fallen across the board over the past month. In most cases, dwindling mine supply, rather than strong demand, was responsible for the decline. While there might well be unreported stocks, markets appear to be tightening. … …
South Africa’s total mine production continued to fall in August, but PGM output recovered as miners took advantage of higher prices. Looking ahead, we think there is a risk of supply disruptions in the PGM sector in the coming weeks since the wage …
A renewed contraction in China’s import bill grabbed the headlines this morning, but China’s commodity import volumes were actually surprisingly strong last month. … China’s September commodity imports hold up rather …
We don’t pretend to know how the political race in the US will develop or who will eventually win the presidency, but in this Metals Watch we aim to shed some light on the potential impact on metals demand and prices of a victory for Donald Trump. … What …
12th October 2016
OPEC production rose in September as Libya and Nigeria ramped up exports. Saudi Arabia’s output did fall, but this is likely to be a seasonal effect rather than a policy shift. … OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya …
The initial uncertainty created by what would now be a shock win for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely be negative for the prices of industrial commodities, including energy. Over the longer term, Trump’s more favourable …
The price of nickel has had a good run, but ultimately stocks are high, demand is unexciting albeit solid and supply prospects may improve. As such, we suspect that prices will struggle in the near-term. … Nickel prices on increasingly shaky …
10th October 2016
Energy prices surged this week, despite the strength of the US dollar, as the physical markets appeared to be moving closer to balance from a position of oversupply. In most other commodity markets, the strength of the dollar provided direction in …
7th October 2016
The latest data suggest that gold buying from the official sector recovered somewhat in August but overall demand in the year to date remains subdued. That said, we think that the case for gold as a strategic reserve asset remains strong. … Central banks …
Crude oil stocks posted yet another surprise fall last week, despite a further reduction in demand from refineries. However, gasoline stocks rose slightly. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (5th Oct. …
5th October 2016
OPEC’s announcement that it would reintroduce output quotas at its next meeting in November and the subsequent jump in oil prices stole the headlines in September. But coal prices have surged even further due to new regulations in China and US natural gas …
Most metals prices have trended higher over the past month, on signs that the monetary and fiscal stimulus enacted earlier in the year in China is starting to feed through into stronger activity. Precious metals bucked the trend, weighed down by renewed …
4th October 2016
Encouraging Chinese economic data and the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates on hold boosted the prices of most commodities last month. That said, gold traded in a narrow range, perhaps starting to price in the increasing likelihood that US interest …
3rd October 2016
The price of oil surged this week in response to the announcement that OPEC members had reached a deal to curb output. However, we are sceptical that this new deal will lead to lower oil supply, not least because it could encourage a resurgence in US …
30th September 2016
The slump in China’s imports of gold in August has raised concerns about the country’s appetite for the yellow metal. However, the bigger picture is one of relatively robust demand so far this year. With the Golden Week and the Chinese New Year fast …
Stronger supply and weaker demand from utilities over the next few months, assuming normal weather, should help keep the price of US natural gas steady until the end of the year. … US natural gas prices unlikely to rise much …
Industrial metals prices have profited in the last month from relatively upbeat economic data out of China as well as the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates just yet. We expect China’s economy to continue to benefit from earlier policy stimulus …
29th September 2016
Last night’s surprise OPEC announcement that it will limit output caused prices to surge. But the lack of details, OPEC’s poor record of compliance with its own quotas and the potential for shale producers to ramp up output make us sceptical that the deal …
US crude oil stocks fell last week as net imports and domestic production fell. However, gasoline stocks rose – despite lower refinery output – as demand weakened. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (28th Sep. …
28th September 2016
The recent doubling of coking coal prices has been cited as good news for the price of iron ore. However, we think quite the contrary. A supply shock has underpinned the rally in coking coal prices, while the demand profile – the price driver it shares …
26th September 2016
For the most part, commodity prices have risen this week, boosted by some weakness in the US dollar. The Fed's decision on Wednesday to keep interest rates on hold weighed on the US currency. That said, we think that there is now a strong chance of a rate …
23rd September 2016
August was another weak month for China’s metals imports. In some cases, lower supply and higher prices have weighed on import volumes. However, relatively soft underlying demand could have also played a part. … China’s metals imports remained subdued in …
22nd September 2016
Planned increases in output from Libya and Nigeria makes it even less likely that major oil producers will agree an output freeze next week in Algeria. But the output gains will have to be sustained before the market will take the prospect of higher …
US crude oil stocks fell sharply last week. However, imports and production rose whilst demand from refineries slipped back. Gasoline stocks also declined as demand jumped and output from refineries slumped. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (21st Sep. …
21st September 2016
A stronger dollar, a reduction in risk appetite and a scaling back of expectations that oil producers will actually limit output made it a tough month for most commodities. However, the price of gold was actually quite resilient in the face of rising US …
20th September 2016
Detailed Chinese industrial production figures for August paint a mixed picture of refining activity. While refined copper production was growing strongly, there were sharp downturns in tin and nickel output. However, we think this reflects diverging …
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output fell by 0.2% y/y in August. So far this year, output in the World ex China has risen, while China’s production has declined. However, August’s data suggest that this …
Supply of the main grains and soybeans looks set to rise in 2016/17, after adverse weather –notably in Latin America – dented harvests in 2015/16. That said, many analysts suspect that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) production …
19th September 2016
The price of oil has taken a hit this week as hopes faded of an OPEC-led agreement between producers to freeze output. However, other industrial commodities performed somewhat better, buoyed by the release on Tuesday of stronger-than-expected Chinese …
16th September 2016
We think that concerns about the lack of spare capacity in the oil market are overdone as supply is already ample and stocks are high. However, as the market tightens over the next few years, low amounts of spare capacity may become more worrying. … …
15th September 2016
The ongoing surge in LME copper stocks was the key development last month and contributed to renewed bearish sentiment towards the metal. In contrast, stocks of all the other metals have fallen over the past four weeks. … Rising stocks weigh on copper …
US inventories of crude oil fell last week as imports rebounded by less than expected after the previous week’s hurricane-related disruptions. On the other hand, stocks of gasoline and distillates rose, despite output from refineries falling. … US Weekly …
14th September 2016
Iron ore prices have been on a bit of a rollercoaster this year, rising on waves of optimism about China’s demand, before slipping back on persistent growth in supply. In this Metals Watch, we argue that the price of iron ore will struggle to make …
Metals prices received a boost today as August activity data out of China surprised on the upside. There is now clear evidence that the monetary and fiscal stimulus enacted earlier in the year is translating into a pick-up in industrial activity. This …
13th September 2016
