Filtered by Subscriptions: Middle East & North Africa Economics Use setting Middle East & North Africa Economics
Our Saudi GDP Tracker suggests that the economic rebound continued in Q3, with output rising by around 5% y/y. The oil sector is growing once again while growth in the non-oil sector remains fairly rapid, supported by rising government spending, strong …
12th November 2013
Egyptian inflation ticked up again last month on the back of a further rise in food inflation. But price pressures look set to ease next year which could bring interest rate cuts back on to the agenda. … Egyptian inflation on course to fall back next …
11th November 2013
Rapid growth in non-oil sectors has raised some hopes that the Gulf countries may finally be diversifying away from a reliance on hydrocarbons. But as we explain in this Watch , the recent expansion of non-oil sectors has been underpinned by a sharp rise …
8th November 2013
October’s PMI data provide the first signs that the Egyptian economy may be emerging from the worst of the fallout from the “second revolution”. Meanwhile, the Gulf economies are growing at a healthy clip. … Tentative signs that the worst may be over for …
5th November 2013
The accompanying press release provided little justification as to why, having eased policy at its previoustwo meetings, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today. We suspect that this was aresponse to the recent rise in inflation. …
31st October 2013
Comments by Kuwait’s ruling Emir ahead of the reopening of the National Assembly suggest that the government has recognised the need for wholesale economic reform. Even so, we think that reform efforts are likely to remain slow, even if the National …
30th October 2013
Bond markets across the MENA region have rallied over the past month as it looks increasingly likely that the US Fed will delay tapering its asset purchases under QE3 until early next year. Elsewhere, Dubai's stock market has reached its highest level in …
29th October 2013
Having slowed at the start of this year, our Saudi GDP Tracker suggests that the economy has rebounded in recent months. The oil sector is growing once again. Meanwhile, the non-oil sector continues to expand at a robust pace, supported by rising …
25th October 2013
Easing food inflation and a modest dip in core price pressures have caused headline inflation to fall across much of the MENA region over the past few months. We expect inflation to remain benign in most countries over the next year or so, with the main …
24th October 2013
Egypt's economy continues to suffer from the fallout following the country's "second revolution" in July. Industrial production is contracting and tourist arrivals are down sharply. At the same time, headline inflation has continued to rise. Growth may …
23rd October 2013
The MENA region’s non-oil economies remain fragile, but a recovery of sorts is likely over the next year. In Egypt, growth will be supported by the government’s Gulf-funded stimulus package, while Tunisia and Morocco should benefit from the recent …
17th October 2013
News from Washington overnight suggests that the US authorities are edging towards an agreement that would prevent a US default. But even if talks break down, the Gulf economies are probably the best placed among the emerging markets to withstand any …
15th October 2013
Tourist arrivals to Egypt have fallen back following the country’s “second revolution” and we estimate that tourist revenues in July and August were $600mn lower than in the same months of last year. To put this into perspective, if this was sustained for …
10th October 2013
The fact that the Egyptian authorities seem determined on keeping the Suez Canal open is clearly a positive for world trade. But it is not enough to offset the weakness in other sectors of the Egyptian economy, particularly tourism. Until political …
8th October 2013
September’s PMI data point to a marked pick-up in activity in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors, supported by an improving external environment. By contrast, the Egyptian economy is showing little sign of recovering following the country’s “second revolution”. …
3rd October 2013
GDP data released over the past few days provide evidence that the Egyptian economy was struggling even before the country’s “second revolution”. Elsewhere, there was better news from Morocco, while Qatar remains the region’s best performer. … Q2 GDP …
2nd October 2013
News that Tunisia’s government has agreed to step down at some point over the next few weeks provides a further reason to think that growth there will remain sluggish and that fiscal reforms may slip. Nonetheless, Tunisia is in a much better state than …
30th September 2013
Rapid credit growth in the Gulf has fuelled fears that the region is experiencing a credit binge similar to that which culminated in Dubai’s crisis in 2009. But, for now at least, we think that there are several reasons not to be overly concerned. … …
27th September 2013
Equity markets have recovered some of their earlier lost ground as concerns overWestern military intervention in Syria, as well as fears of a tapering of QE3 by theUS Federal Reserve, have eased. … Equity markets rebound on back of Syria deal & Fed …
25th September 2013
The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to cut interest rates by 50bp today shows that policymakers are fully focussed on supporting the economy. With the backing of aid from the Gulf, additional interest rate cuts, perhaps in the region of 50-150bp, …
19th September 2013
Growth in the Gulf States appears to have accelerated in recent months. Oil production has surged in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at least in part as a response to supply disruptions in Libya. And in the non-hydrocarbon sector, activity remains robust. …
18th September 2013
Our Saudi GDP Tracker suggests that the economy started Q3 on a strong note. The drag from the oil sector has eased, while growth in the non-oil sector has accelerated, supported by rapid credit growth, rising government spending and an improving external …
17th September 2013
There are mounting concerns about the prospect of deficit monetisation in Egypt. Indeed, thereappears to be some evidence that the central bank is already financing the budget shortfall, albeiton a small scale. However, we think widespread deficit …
12th September 2013
Following the recent strengthening of the Egyptian pound, we have revised our year-end forecast for the currency. But in this Watch , we explain why we still think that, over a longer horizon, the pound has further to fall. … What next for the Egyptian …
10th September 2013
Signs of recovery in the euro-zone are encouraging for Morocco and Tunisia. But political problems and large twin fiscal and current account deficits will continue to cloud the economic outlook. … Growth in Morocco and Tunisia to remain …
5th September 2013
After slowing sharply over the past year or so, the Saudi economy appears to have turned the corner in Q2. The oil sector’s drag on growth is easing while government stimulus is starting to filter through. Growth should continue to accelerate over the …
3rd September 2013
August’s PMI data provide evidence that the Egyptian economy is still suffering following the country’s “second revolution”. Meanwhile, the Saudi non-oil economy has picked-up. … Egyptian economy suffers in aftermath of “second …
Egypt’s newly-announced stimulus package stands a chance of boosting the beleaguered economy in the near-term. But with the package being funded by Gulf aid, over the longer-term, it could actually take the country further away from making much-needed …
29th August 2013
Egypt’s financial markets appear to have taken the latest outbreaks of violence in their stride. The equity market is actually up since the start of the month, while bond yields remain below the level seen at the height of the “second revolution”. …
28th August 2013
The outbreak of violence in Egypt has made the economic outlook highly uncertain. But it’s pretty clear that the tourism sector will be hard hit, as it has been during previous bouts of unrest. We estimate that the losses to the sector could range between …
22nd August 2013
The outbreak of violence between security forces and protestors this month has sent Egypt spiralling deeper into crisis. It’s extremely tricky to predict how eventswill unfold from here on. In the very near-term though, the disruptions toindustry and the …
20th August 2013
Saudi inflation has eased over the course of this year, in spite of fairly robust domestic demand. And looking ahead we think price pressures are unlikely to become a major cause for concern. … Saudi inflation likely to remain …
15th August 2013
The latest Egyptian activity data suggest that the economy was suffering even before the armed forces ousted President Morsi at the start of last month. Needless to say, growth has slowed even further since then. … Egypt’s economy struggling even before …
13th August 2013
Saudi Arabia’s activity data for June provide further evidence that the slowdown in growth over the past year or so probably bottomed out in the second quarter. The non-oil sector continues to grow at a robust pace, while the drag on growth from the oil …
8th August 2013
July’s PMIs suggest that the Egyptian economy has weakened further against the backdrop of the “secondrevolution”. Meanwhile, non-oil sectors in the Gulf continue to grow at a robust pace. … Egypt’s “second revolution” takes a heavy toll on the …
5th August 2013
The surprise decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to cut interest rates today was probably triggered by two factors. The first is the influx of aid from the Gulf, which has eased strains in the country’s balance of payments. And the second is the renewed …
1st August 2013
Egypt’s financial markets initially reacted positively to the ouster of President Morsi at the start of this month. But as the dust has settled and the severity of the political and economic situation has become clearer, investors already appear to be …
31st July 2013
Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the fiscal deficit is widening. The good news is that …
24th July 2013
Growth in the Gulf is set to slow over the next couple of years as the past decade’s oil boom starts to fade. At the same time, oil prices are likely to fall too. This is unlikely to pose a serious threat to budget or current account positions. But it …
22nd July 2013
The aid that Gulf states have granted to Egypt since the ousting of President Morsi should be sufficient to cover the country’s external financing requirement for almost a year. Accordingly, the immediate threat of a balance of payments crisis or default …
16th July 2013
The Saudi economy slowed sharply in Q1, recording its weakest rate of growth since 2009. The oil sector was the main drag on growth, while the public sector was the only area where the pace of expansion picked up. But there are tentative signs that the …
15th July 2013
We’ve argued for some time that the Gulf economies should outperform the rest of the MENA region over the next couple of years, in large part thanks to large increases in government spending. But while the Gulf’s fiscal positions are among the strongest …
11th July 2013
It goes without saying that there’s a vast amount of uncertainty about how events will develop in Egypt. But the economy looks more fragile now than at any time since the first Arab Spring revolution in 2011. A potential crunch point for the financial …
4th July 2013
June’s PMIs fell across the whole of the MENA region. But they do not take into account the political unrest that has flared up once again in Egypt and could weigh heavily on the economy over the second half this year. By contrast, the Gulf economies are …
2nd July 2013
The most surprising feature of the raft of Q1 GDP data released in the region over the past few days was that Egypt’s economy has continued to grow, despite the country’s political turmoil. However, the details suggest that growth is increasingly …
1st July 2013
President Morsi’s first year in office hasn’t been easy to say the least. Unemployment is up, the pound has fallen and the authorities are no closer to securing an IMF agreement. These promise to make President Morsi’s second year just as challenging as …
28th June 2013
Financial markets in Egypt have been hit by a triple whammy of rising political tensions, growing concerns over the fiscal position and the continued deadlock in negotiations with the IMF. Equities have fallen by over 20% and bond yields have reached a …
26th June 2013
Investors have lost even more confidence in Egypt over the past month. The equity market has tumbled and, while this could in part be related to signals by the US Fed that it will begin to taper QE3 later this year, we think local factors are playing a …
24th June 2013
Our Saudi Arabia GDP tracker suggests that the economy slowed to around 3.5% y/y in Q1. Encouragingly though, there are tentative signs that the slowdown bottomed out at the start of the second quarter. Economic weakness is concentrated in the oil sector, …
19th June 2013
In spite of the Central Bank of Egypt’s best efforts, it appears to be only a matter of time before the Egyptian pound breaks through 7/US$. And there is a growing risk that, without an IMF deal, the currency falls further than the 7.5/US$ that we are …
18th June 2013
