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The sharp fall in machinery orders in December casts doubt on whether the fledgling recovery in business investment will continue. What's more, overall investment is set to weaken in coming months as housing construction will likely plunge after the …
12th February 2014
The current account deficit reached a record high in December, but should narrow once domestic demand slows after the upcoming consumption tax. Indeed, today's sentiment surveys point to weakening economic momentum in coming months. … Current Account …
10th February 2014
While some emerging market assets have seen a sharp sell-off in recent weeks, it is premature to speak of a general crisis sweeping the emerging world. In any case, Japan’s exposure to most of the affected countries is low. More worrisome would be a “hard …
The threat to the economic recovery from falling real wages may not be as big as many fear, given the trade-off between higher pay or more job creation. Nonetheless, consumers are understandably far from happy about the return of price inflation. … …
5th February 2014
The last time that the consumption tax was hiked, in 1997, Japan was tipped into recession shortly afterwards by a regional financial crisis. History appears at risk of repeating itself. However, many of the fears now hitting equities seem overdone. …
4th February 2014
The Japanese economy is entering the new year with strong momentum. The data are probably being flattered by spending brought forward ahead of April’s consumption tax hike. But if this spending helps to kick-start a broader recovery, it may still have …
3rd February 2014
Despite a fall in December, retail sales still recorded a solid rise in the final quarter of last year. While there are some indications that consumers have brought forward demand ahead of April's consumption tax hike, the expected surge in spending is …
30th January 2014
The widening in Japan's trade deficit is often attributed to a surge in energy imports as a result of the nuclear shutdown. However, the jump in the energy import bill is mostly due to the impact of yen weakness and higher global oil and gas prices, as …
29th January 2014
Small business confidence climbed to yet another fresh high in January. Conditions seem to be more buoyant in the non-manufacturing sector than in manufacturing, but sentiment will likely deteriorate after the upcoming consumption tax hike. … Small …
28th January 2014
The seasonally-adjusted trade deficit narrowed in December, but the full-year deficit surged. The trade shortfall is likely to widen again in the near-term as domestic demand is brought forward ahead of April's consumption tax hike, but should narrow …
27th January 2014
The government’s proposal to allow residential properties to be built on some areas of commercial land is unlikely to lead to the hoped-for surge in property prices. With a larger supply of residential buildings, residential property prices are more …
The BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that despite some slowdown in household loan demand, overall loan demand continues to accelerate. … Senior Loan Officer Survey …
23rd January 2014
The Bank of Japan threw no surprises in its monetary policy decision today and is under no immediate pressure to announce further easing. But with some board members still unconvinced that the inflation target will be met within the next couple of years …
22nd January 2014
The upcoming gubernatorial election in Tokyo is being widely billed as a referendum on national energy policy, with one prominent candidate running on an anti-nuclear platform. However, the influence of local politicians on energy policy is limited. The …
Prime Minister Abe has promised to deliver a positive "wage surprise" this year by working closely with employers and trade unions. He has drawn inspiration from an agreement reached in the Netherlands in the early 1980s. But conditions in Japan are far …
20th January 2014
The renewed fall in consumer confidence in December shows that households are less satisfied with Abenomics than after its start. … Consumer Confidence …
17th January 2014
The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, which concludes next Wednesday (22nd), is unlikely to result in any significant changes to the asset purchase programme. We continue to favour October for the timing of any announcement of …
16th January 2014
Despite a slowdown in December, the money supply continues to grow at a rapid pace. The growth rate of bank lending reached a fresh high and, with interest rates very low and bank lending attitudes accommodative, lending will likely remain strong. … …
Machinery orders surged to a five-year high in November and point to a renewed recovery in business investment. However, overall investment may still weaken in coming months as residential investment will likely fall sharply after the sales tax hike. … …
The renewed rise in the current activity component of the Economy Watchers Survey shows that conditions remain strong for now. But the prospect of a slump in demand after the upcoming consumption tax is already weighing on the outlook. Meanwhile, although …
14th January 2014
Tourist arrivals to Japan have surged over the past year. While this is good news for businesses that cater to visitors, the broader macroeconomic implication are minor. Tourism-related spending remains small overall. And, as with many sectors in Japan’s …
13th January 2014
The Nikkei rose by 60% in 2013, the largest increase in decades. A similarly stellar performance this year is obviously unlikely, but we still see room for further gains both in 2014 and 2015. While equity valuations are looking stretched, an extended …
The yen is now “undervalued” on most measures. However, deviations from fundamental value can, of course, persist for a very long time and should not prove an obstacle to fresh declines. We continue to expect aggressive easing by the Bank of Japan to …
9th January 2014
The Japanese economy is entering 2014 on a strong footing. Retail sales are at their highest level since the late 1990s, business surveys and the Nikkei have climbed to multi-year highs, and employment is expanding rapidly. However, recent positive …
8th January 2014
The return of inflation prompted by the Bank of Japan's bold monetary easing may not be unambiguously positive for all sectors of the economy. Consumer spending will be weaker than otherwise and any pick-up in investment may need to be complemented by …
6th January 2014
In this final Japan Economics Weekly of the year we take a look at the local events and themes that will shape Japan’s economy and markets in 2014. The single most important scheduled event will be the increase in the consumption tax on 1st April. It will …
23rd December 2013
The Bank of Japan’s widely-anticipated decision to maintain its current policy settings for the tenth successive Board meeting today is a testament to the boldness and clarity of the monetary easing announced in April, which has not required any …
20th December 2013
The weak yen is largely to blame for the recent widening of the trade deficit. As domestic demand accelerates ahead of the consumption tax hike, the deficit may well widen further in the near-term, but we should see a narrowing once the tax has been …
18th December 2013
The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey showed a further improvement in business conditions in the fourth quarter. However, the pace of the improvement has slowed, which points to a slowdown in GDP growth. … Tankan …
16th December 2013
A year after the election that returned Mr Abe as prime minister, the interim verdict on his attempts to revitalise the economy must be that much more still needs to be done. The most radical policy change has been the adoption of a more aggressive easing …
The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, which concludes next Friday (20 th ), is unlikely to result in any major policy changes, despite the recent flurry of speculation that fresh action is imminent. Indeed, the purely economic case for …
12th December 2013
Despite a sharp fall in the money multiplier, the growth rates of bank lending and broad money reached fresh highs in November. … Monetary Indicators Monitor …
11th December 2013
The rise in machinery orders in October leaves the uptrend intact and should ease concerns that the fledgling recovery in business investment has already come to an end. … Machinery Orders …
The Business Outlook Survey shows that companies are sanguine about the impact of the consumption tax hike, but households have lost confidence in Abenomics. … Business Outlook Survey (Q4) & Consumer Confidence …
10th December 2013
The downward revision in the second estimate of Q3 GDP largely reflects weaker inventories and is therefore no big deal. While demand excluding inventories was almost stagnant, the Economy Watchers Survey shows that the recovery remains intact. … GDP …
9th December 2013
The details of the fiscal stimulus package unveiled on Thursday were disappointing. The corporate tax surcharge will be phased out a year earlier than scheduled, but there was no mention of a cut in the standard rate. Instead, the measures focused on …
Preliminary data show that the recovery slowed last quarter, but this follows unsustainably strong growth in the first half of the year, and is thus no cause for concern. Indeed, several business surveys have reached multi-year highs in recent months, …
6th December 2013
We continue to expect the Bank of Japan to announce further substantial monetary stimulus eventually, but those now speculating that it might act within the next few months are likely to be disappointed. The case for loosening monetary policy to encourage …
3rd December 2013
The rise in wages in October largely reflects volatile overtime payments, while regular pay continues to fall. Looking ahead, there are a number of reasons to be sceptical about an acceleration in wage growth. … Labour Cash Earnings …
The fall in capital expenditure last quarter dashed hopes that non-residential investment may be revised up in the second estimate of Q3 GDP. Corporate profitability weakened, especially in the manufacturing sector, albeit from high levels. … Capital …
2nd December 2013
Consumption has climbed to new highs as a share of demand in recent years, even though the share of income going to workers has fallen. While this can largely be explained by the effects of population ageing rather than a change in savings behaviour, …
Despite a slower-than-expected rise in industrial production in October, the outlook for the sector remains buoyant. Meanwhile, there are signs that domestic inflationary pressure is picking up even as the impact of the weak yen is fading. … Consumer …
29th November 2013
Despite a fall in October, the broad upward trend in retail sales remains intact. Sales are likely to surge in the coming months ahead of the consumption tax hike, but should plunge thereafter. … Retail Sales …
28th November 2013
The recent escalation of the conflict over the Senkaku islands may lead to renewed disruption of bilateral trade and investment between Japan and China. The experience from last year’s flare-up in tensions suggests that Japan’s domestic economy would only …
27th November 2013
With even some members of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board expecting inflation to remain well below the 2% target in FY 2015, there is growing speculation about how and when the Board will respond to any shortfall. Our view is that the Board is likely to …
26th November 2013
Small business confidence reached a fresh high in November, but will likely worsen once the consumption tax is raised next April. … Small Business Confidence …
Japan’s dual labour market undoubtedly has some economic costs, as non-regular workers are much less productive than regular employees. However, the degree of labour market duality is not vastly different from other OECD countries, and the majority of …
25th November 2013
The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain the current pace of asset purchases after its Board meeting today was no surprise. Governor Kuroda emphasised the Bank’s willingness to ease further, but also that it is too early to conclude that the planned …
21st November 2013
The surge in imports in October partly reflects a weak base from last year, as well as a curious spike in energy imports. The trade deficit may well widen further in the near-term as spending is brought forward ahead of April's consumption tax hike, but …
20th November 2013
The statements following the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, which concludes on Thursday, are likely to be dovish even if there is no additional loosening just yet. It has been clear for some time that several Board members have major …
18th November 2013
