Filtered by Subscriptions: Asia Economics Use setting Asia Economics
Economy set to cool further Economic growth in Malaysia softened in Q3 but came in well above trend for the third consecutive quarter. Looking ahead we think GDP growth will drop back to trend if, as we expect, a jump in inflation driven by the removal of …
21st October 2024
Property prices flat last month One reason the Bank of Korea pushed back against the prospect of another near-term rate cut at its meeting last week was fear of a rebound in property prices that might threaten financial stability. We think this concern is …
18th October 2024
Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings should pave the way for improved fiscal positions, stronger …
17th October 2024
We will be holding an online briefing later today to discuss the outlook for economic policy across Asia. You can register here . Hold does not mark the end of the easing cycle Bank Indonesia today left interest rates on hold (at 6.00%), but we think …
16th October 2024
Another 25bps cut, with more to come The central bank in the Philippines cut rates by 25bps and signalled that the recent economic data support its shift towards a looser monetary policy stance. Further gradual loosening lies in store in the coming …
We will be holding an online briefing later today to discuss the outlook for economic policy across Asia. You can register here . BoT cuts as deflation risks mount Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by 25bps (to 2.25%), but appeared to …
Having stormed to victory in February’s presidential election, Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and the current defence minister, will take over from Joko Widodo on Sunday (20 th October). Since his election victory, Prabowo has made a number of …
15th October 2024
MAS pivot still likely in January The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy settings unchanged today, but with growth set to weaken and inflation on its way to target we think the central bank will loosen policy in January. The MAS conducts …
14th October 2024
Bank of Korea cuts The Bank of Korea kickstarted its easing cycle earlier today with a 25bps cut. As we outlined here , with GDP growth struggling and price pressures very weak, further easing is likely over the coming months. BI unlikely to cut again …
11th October 2024
The Bank of Korea today cut interest rates by 25bps (to 3.25%), but tried to dampen speculation that it would cut rates at its final meeting of the year in November. With growth struggling and inflation low, we think it is too early to rule out another …
Interest rates cut, further easing ahead The Bank of Korea kickstarted its easing cycle today with a 25bps cut. With growth struggling and inflation below target, we expect more easing over the coming months. The decision to lower the policy rate from …
GDP growth in Vietnam rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year and we expect growth to remain robust in the near term, helped by strong export demand. Data published over the weekend showed that GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter to …
7th October 2024
Korea – weak data point to first rate cut With inflation below target and activity data pointing to a further slowdown, we expect the Bank of Korea to kickstart its easing cycle at its scheduled monetary policy meeting next Friday. September’s inflation …
4th October 2024
Inflation in Thailand is the lowest not just of any country in Asia, but across the emerging world. (See Chart 1.) The headline rate in August fell to just 0.4% y/y, while the core rate was 0.6%. (See Chart 2.) We expect inflation to rise a little over …
1st October 2024
The September PMIs from Asia generally declined from the previous month. And while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing activity in Asia to …
We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s stimulus blizzard. This Update answers several of …
Asia Chart Pack (September 2024) …
30th September 2024
Fiscal policy to hold back Pakistan’s recovery The IMF this week approved a new long-term US$7bn loan for Pakistan. The country will receive the first US$1bn immediately, with the remainder to be paid over the three years of the deal. Pakistan was close …
27th September 2024
Overview – We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target nearly everywhere. With growth set to struggle …
23rd September 2024
Election risk to Sri Lanka’s recovery Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 crisis which saw the country default on its debts and the president ejected from power in the face of huge popular protests. Data released late …
20th September 2024
CBC in no rush to join regional easing cycle Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%), and with growth set to accelerate we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2024 and 2025. In contrast, the consensus is …
19th September 2024
Bank Indonesia today kicked off its easing cycle with a 25bps cut, taking its main policy rate to 6.00%. With inflation under control and the rupiah rebounding against the US dollar, further cuts are likely. While the decision was unexpected (it was …
18th September 2024
What will the US election mean for the Asia growth outlook? Will China’s economy overtake the US? Will India fulfil its growth potential? We’re tackling these issues and more in our Asia roundtable in London on Tuesday, 24th September. If you’d like to …
13th September 2024
The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia) a green light to lower interest rates, EM rate …
12th September 2024
Indonesia budget eases fiscal concerns Indonesia’s budget for 2025 moved a step closer to being passed this week after a parliamentary committee and the government reached agreement on the main fiscal targets for next year. (The budget will now be put …
6th September 2024
On hold, BNM to leave rates unchanged this year and next Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold (at 3.00%) today, and is likely to be one of the few countries in Asia to leave interest rates unchanged throughout the rest …
5th September 2024
Inflation in Korea fell back sharply last month, supporting our view that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in October. Inflation data published today showed that the headline rate fell from 2.6% y/y in July to 2.0% in August. …
3rd September 2024
Asia Chart Pack (August 2024) …
30th August 2024
Falling fertility bodes poorly for long-run outlook Data released this week showed that Korea's fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime) dropped further to 0.72 last year (see Chart 1), the lowest of …
Currency concerns abating Three central banks announced policy decisions this week and all three kept rates on hold. At first glance then, an uneventful week. But there were dovish signs across the board that suggest all three will ease policy soon. We …
23rd August 2024
The Bank of Korea left rates on hold again today but sounded very dovish. With policymakers now more confident about achieving their inflation target and domestic demand set to remain weak, we think the BoK will start to cut rates in October and that the …
22nd August 2024
Rate cuts likely in October The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, but of more interest will be the tone of Governor Rhee’s press conference and the central bank’s statement later in the …
Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all 30 analysts polled by Reuters, …
21st August 2024
Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged but if, as we expect, growth slows further and inflation remains very low, we think the central bank will start loosening policy from October. Today’s decision came as little surprise and …
Thailand’s economy slowed in Q2 and we expect it to decelerate a bit further in the coming quarters as the boost from tourism fades and with uncertainty around fiscal policy now elevated, risks to our already downbeat growth outlook are skewed to the …
19th August 2024
Further political uncertainty in Thailand Today’s election by Thailand’s parliament of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister is unlikely to draw a line under the country’s mounting political instability. Paetongtarn’s father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck …
16th August 2024
The second estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed that Malaysia’s economy accelerated sharply but, with inflation set to jump, commodity prices likely to decline and the boost from tourism set to fade, we still expect a slowdown ahead. According to the second …
BSP cuts rates, more easing to come The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 25bps cut (to 6.25%), and hinted that further easing was likely over the coming months. With inflation set to drop back further and …
15th August 2024
Thailand's Constitutional Court today dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a move that could trigger further political instability and bodes poorly for the country’s economy. Srettha, a real estate mogul, becomes the fourth Thai prime minister in 16 …
14th August 2024
Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs tactically courting investment from China to put …
13th August 2024
Our Asia team will be holding a Drop-In on Wednesday 14th August at 0830 ET/1330 BST to discuss the timing of Asian interest rate cuts and the impact of global markets volatility. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. US growth …
9th August 2024
The economy slowed sharply in Q2 and we expect below trend growth to persist over the rest of the year as tight monetary policy, slower growth in remittances and soft export demand weigh on activity in the Philippines. According to the data published …
8th August 2024
The outbreak of political violence and the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has rocked Bangladesh today. But provided that peace and stability is restored relatively soon, the economy is unlikely to suffer major long-term effects. Sheikh …
5th August 2024
Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish tilt may come from EM central banks – particularly those …
The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity set to weaken in the coming quarters, and concerns about inflation …
Bank of Korea to wait until October to cut rates Korean GDP figures published last week showed that the economy contracted in the second quarter, and monthly data for June and July published this week confirm that the economy is struggling. Although …
2nd August 2024
The July PMIs from Emerging Asia nudged down slightly from the previous month but remained close to their two-year highs. However, the PMI data have been a poor guide to the hard activity data over the past year and we continue to expect manufacturing …
1st August 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (July 2024) …
31st July 2024
Economy stalls, but growth to accelerate in H2 Taiwan’s economy almost stalled in the second quarter, with growth coming in well below our expectations. While we think GDP growth will pick up in the second half of the year, we are cutting our full-year …
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has reduced interest rates. Prior to that, the policy rate …
29th July 2024
