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We think that Japan’s export values dropped by more than 10% y/y in August (08.50 BST) The FOMC will probably cut rates by 25bp for the second time in a row (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank is also likely to lower its main policy rate Key Market Themes …
17th September 2019
FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday widely expected to result in a 25bp rate cut UK-EU Brexit talks set to “intensify”, increasing optimism about a deal We think that US industrial production rebounded by 0.2% m/m in August (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
16th September 2019
Cyclical headwinds to activity and spending in China may have abated slightly (Mon) US industrial production probably rebounded by about 0.2% m/m in August (Tue) Fed highly likely to cut rates again, but we think that the BoJ and BoE will stand pat Key …
13th September 2019
Peru’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate later today Euro-zone pay growth probably picked up in Q2, but we doubt it will last (10.00 BST) We suspect that US retail sales rose only slightly in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although the …
12th September 2019
The central bank of Poland is likely to stand pat, and strike a more hawkish tone Mexico’s industrial production probably edged down in July (12.00 BST) We think that both headline and core producer price inflation picked up in the US (13.30 BST) Key …
10th September 2019
UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election this evening Climbing food prices probably pushed China’s inflation higher in August (02.30 BST) We think that core inflation in Norway and Sweden edged up last month Key …
9th September 2019
UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election (Monday) We expect the ECB to cut deposit rate by 10bp and reinforce forward guidance (Thursday) US retail sales probably increased slightly in August (Friday) Key Market …
6th September 2019
Germany’s industrial production is likely to have fallen further in July (07.00 BST) Russia’s central bank will probably cut its deposit rate by 25bp (11.30 BST) We estimate that US non-farm payrolls increased by 110,000 last month (13.30 BST) Key Market …
5th September 2019
We expect Chile’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp The US trade deficit is likely to have narrowed in July as exports rebounded … … but Canada’s trade balance probably dropped back into the red (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Boris Johnson’s …
3rd September 2019
Argentina’s capital controls storing up more trouble for the future UK Parliament will try to block a no-deal Brexit as it returns from its summer recess The US ISM manufacturing index probably rebounded in August (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite the …
2nd September 2019
Activity in China’s manufacturing sector probably improved in August (Monday) Policy rates are likely to be cut in Ukraine, Russia and Chile We estimate that US non-farm payrolls increase by 110,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes The Bank of Japan …
30th August 2019
Sterling falls as threat of parliamentary suspension fuels fears of a no-deal Brexit EC Business and Consumer Survey probably fell to a 41-month low in August (10.00 BST) We estimate that the US economy grew by 2% q/q annualised in Q2 (13.30 BST) Key …
28th August 2019
We think that Germany’s Ifo survey deteriorated further in August (Monday) Euro-zone inflation probably remained subdued in August (Friday) Divergence between US manufacturing sector and real consumption likely to have persisted Key Market Themes Jerome …
23rd August 2019
US FOMC minutes might give details about support for further easing (Wed. 19.00 BST) We think that the euro-zone composite PMI and consumer confidence index fell in August Account of last ECB meeting may hint at size of further stimulus (Thurs. 13.30 BST) …
21st August 2019
Italian PM Conte has announced his resignation, raising the chance of early elections UK PM Johnson to discuss Brexit backstop with French and German leaders ahead of G7 Minutes from last US FOMC meeting might give indications about future easing (19.00 …
20th August 2019
The PBOC’s may loosen policy again as it launches a new loan prime rate Italy’s government is likely to lose a vote of no confidence on Tuesday Russia’s weak activity data in July probably pave the way for further policy stimulus Key Market Themes Hopes …
19th August 2019
Japan’s exports probably fell at a slower pace in July (Monday) Powell could signal that the Fed will cut rates further at Jackson Hole symposium (Thursday) We think that policymakers will cut rates in Egypt but stand pat in Indonesia (Thursday) Key …
16th August 2019
We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate to 8.00% (Thursday, 19.00 BST) GDP growth in Malaysia probably slowed a bit in Q2 (Friday, 05.00 BST) US consumer confidence likely to have deteriorated in August (Friday, 15.00 BST) Key Market …
15th August 2019
US retail sales growth is likely to have edged down in July (13.30 BST) We think that US industrial production fell by about 0.1% m/m in July (14.15 BST) Interest rates will probably be left on hold in Norway, but cut in Mexico Key Market Themes After a …
14th August 2019
US administration delays new tariffs on many Chinese imports until 15 th December Germany’s GDP probably contracted in Q2, and euro-zone growth may be revised down We think that UK CPI inflation remained at the BoE’s 2% target in July (09.30 BST) Key …
13th August 2019
Argentina’s financial markets likely to remain under pressure as focus returns to default risk UK unemployment probably fell in June but is unlikely to go much lower (09.30 BST) We think that US headline and core CPI inflation picked up in July (13.30 …
12th August 2019
US core CPI inflation is likely to have held steady at 2.1% (Monday) We think that GDP fell in Germany, and growth was revised down in the euro-zone, in Q2 Euro-zone and US industrial production probably ended Q2 on a weak note Key Market Themes Matteo …
9th August 2019
Japan’s GDP growth is likely to have slowed substantially in Q2 (00.50 BST) We think that China’s CPI inflation continued to rise in July (02.30 BST) The UK economy probably did not grow at all during the last quarter (09.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
8th August 2019
Further weakness in the Chinese renminbi is likely in our view We think that wage growth in Japan rose slightly in June (00.30 BST) The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave its policy rate unchanged (02.30 BST) Key Market Themes China ’s decision …
5th August 2019
Unlike in Australia, interest rates are likely to be cut in New Zealand We think that GDP growth in the UK stagnated in Q2 (Friday) We expect the US ISM non-manufacturing index to have edged higher in July (Friday) Key Market Themes The rally in US …
2nd August 2019
We think that euro-zone core inflation fell in July, and GDP growth slowed in Q2 (10.00 BST) The FOMC will probably cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank is also likely to lower its main policy rate at …
30th July 2019
We expect the Bank of Japan to extend its forward guidance to summer 2020 or beyond Euro-zone ESI is likely to have fallen to about 102.0 in July (10.00 BST) US personal spending probably rose by about 0.3% in June. (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The yield …
29th July 2019
We think that the ECB will cut rates in September and restart net asset purchases shortly after The central bank of Russia will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% (11.30 BST) US GDP growth probably fell quite sharply in the second quarter …
25th July 2019
Incoming UK Prime Minister Johnson to reveal his Brexit plans in acceptance speech We think that July’s PMIs remained consistent with a sharp slowdown in growth in the US … … and with subdued growth in the euro-zone Key Market Themes There was little …
23rd July 2019
Boris Johnson is likely to win the UK Conservative Party leadership election We expect interest rates to be cut by 50bp in Nigeria, but remain on hold in Hungary Euro-zone consumer confidence probably edged up in June (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes While …
22nd July 2019
We think that Japan’s headline CPI inflation dropped to 0.6% y/y in June (00.30 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have edged up in May (13.30 BST) University of Michigan US consumer confidence index probably rose a bit in July (15.00 BST) Key …
18th July 2019
We expect central banks in South Africa, Indonesia and Korea to cut their policy rates Annual growth in Japan’s exports and imports probably remained negative (00.50 BST) The Teranet index is likely to show that Canada’s house price inflation fell further …
17th July 2019
UK CPI inflation was probably unchanged at 2.0% y/y last month (09.30 BST) We think that the euro-zone inflation rate for June will be revised upwards (10.00 BST) End of plant shutdowns probably supported Canada’s manufacturing sales in May (13.30 BST) …
16th July 2019
Key Market Themes We think that China’s economy lost further momentum in Q2 (Monday) Weather-related disruptions probably weighed on US industrial output in June (Tuesday) Japan’s exports and imports are likely to have fallen in June (Thursday) Since oil …
12th July 2019
China’s export and import growth probably remained weak in June Rebound in euro-zone industrial production unlikely to offset fully April’s fall (10.00 BST) US core producer price inflation may have been boosted by the increase in tariffs (13.30 BST) Key …
11th July 2019
Fed minutes from June meeting are likely to take a back seat after Powell’ testimony We think that Sweden’s inflation fell below 2% last month (08.30 BST) US core consumer prices probably picked up in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Today’s strong hint …
10th July 2019
UK MPs to launch fresh bid to stop next PM forcing through a “no-deal” Brexit Japan’s wage growth data continue to be distorted by change in methodology (00.30 BST) Powell could provide clarity on possible July rate cut at the Boston Fed conference Key …
8th July 2019
Fed Chair might provide clarity on rate cut prospects in semi-annual testimony (Wednesday) US inflation may have been boosted in June by the increase in tariffs on Chinese goods We think that euro-zone industrial production edged up in May (Friday) Key …
5th July 2019
We estimate that US non-farm payroll employment rose by 125,000 in June … (13.30 BST) … and think that wages rose by about 0.3% m/m (13.30 BST) Canada’s employment probably increased by only 10,000 last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
4th July 2019
We think that inflation in Switzerland moved closer to zero in June (07.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales are unlikely to have rebounded in May (10.00 BST) The National Bank of Romania will probably leave its policy rate at 2.50% (13.00 BST) Key Market …
3rd July 2019
We think that Turkey’s CPI inflation fell sharply last month (08.00 BST) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably dropped back in June (15.00 BST) The central banks of Sweden and Poland are likely to leave their policy rates unchanged Key Market Themes …
2nd July 2019
European Commission unlikely to recommend formal disciplinary action against Italy We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its policy rate to 1.00% (05.30 BST) Brazil’s monthly industrial production growth was probably quite weak in May (13.00 BST) …
1st July 2019
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI probably edged lower in June (Monday) The RBA is likely to cut its policy rate to 1.00% (Tuesday) We estimate that US non-farm payroll employment rose by 125,000 in June (Friday) Key Market Themes Another trade truce at …
28th June 2019
We estimate that Japan’s industrial production increased by 1.8% m/m in May (00.50 BST) Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer index probably rose in June (08.00 BST) US personal spending data are likely to point to rising consumption growth (13.30 BST) Key …
27th June 2019
Japan’s retail sales values probably rebounded in May (00.50 BST) We think that economic sentiment in the euro-zone remained subdued (10.00 BST) Mexico’s central bank is likely to stand pat for now (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes Unlike most other G10 …
26th June 2019
Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to speak about monetary policy (Tuesday) We expect the RBNZ to stand pat this week, but cut its policy rate later this year (03.00 BST) We think that US durable goods orders fell sharply in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
25th June 2019
We think that Hungary’s central bank will raise its overnight deposit rate (13.00 BST) US Conference Board consumer confidence index probably fell back in June (15.00 BST) Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s CFR interview might give details about dovish shift …
24th June 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Market reaction to US-Iran tensions likely to remain contained …
21st June 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We don’t expect the rallies in Treasuries, JGBs and Gilts to last …
20th June 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors hoping for unlikely mix of rate cuts and strong earnings …
19th June 2019
