Brazil, Chile, Colombia Policy Interest Rates (%, end-of-quarter) …
22nd July 2024
Au, Br, Cl, Cn, Co, Ez, In, Jp, NZ, US Real GDP (% y/y, quarterly) …
Au, Br, Cl, Cn, Co, Ez, In, Jp, NZ, US Real GDP (% y/y, annual) …
Real GDP in Major Economies (% y/y, period averages) …
Nominal GDP in Major Economies ($bn, m.e.r.) …
US, Euro-zone & Japan Headline Inflation (%, monthly) …
US, Euro-zone & Japan Core Inflation (%, monthly) …
China, India, Brazil, Chile & Colombia Headline Inflation (%, monthly) …
Au, Br, Cl, Cn, Co, Ez, In, Jp, NZ, US Headline Inflation (%, quarterly) …
US, Euro-zone & Japan Unemployment Rate (%, monthly) …
Au, Br, Cl, Cn, Jp, NZ, US Unemployment Rates (%, quarterly) …
ECB & Federal Reserve Policy Interest Rates (%, end of month) …
US, German, French. Italian 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, daily) …
US, German, French, Italian 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, quarterly) …
Australia, Japan & New Zealand 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, end-of-quarter) …
Australia, Japan & New Zealand Policy Interest Rate (%, end-of-quarter) …
The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We forecast that core PCE inflation will return to the 2% …
Overview – House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered by more than investors anticipate suggests …
Increases in solar panel and battery exports propelled our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes to a record high in June. Given the rapid expansion in Chinese manufacturing capacity, the large wedge between export values and volumes will …
The dramatic departure of Joe Biden throws fresh uncertainty into the US presidential election race. With just over three months to go, Democrats are scrambling to agree a candidate and Donald Trump is looking only slight less likely to win in November in …
Economic recovery still on track Poland’s retail sales data released today were slightly weaker than expected, but the big picture is that the whole set of activity data for June suggest that the economic recovery has remained relatively strong. Taken …
PBOC responds to leadership's call for more easing The PBOC has lowered its short-term policy rate for the first time since last summer, in line with our expectation for a cut this quarter. Its efforts to prevent long-term yields from falling therefore do …
After his disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to be re-elected in this November’s election. His withdrawal letter acknowledges Vice President Kamala Harris as “an extraordinary partner in all this” and, in a …
21st July 2024
Nigeria: yet more spending…. Nigeria announced this week that it needs to raise its 2024 budget spending again, which will be funded by a windfall tax on banks. But efforts are needed to permanently boost revenues if Nigeria’s public finances aren’t to be …
19th July 2024
The US dollar has bounced back over the past couple of days as interest rate expectations in the US have rebounded a little and the risk-off shift in equities bled into currency markets. While the Japanese yen has given back some of its …
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown speaks about the macroeconomic implications of the global IT outage before going on to explain what’s happening to the world inflation and …
Despite some measures of monthly core price growth remaining above the rates consistent with 2% inflation, the June CPI release on the whole supported the case for another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada next week. Downward trend in inflation …
GDP breakdown points to weaker services activity The lower-than-expected Q2 GDP figures released earlier this week suggest that China’s economy has lost some momentum recently. The detailed sectoral breakdown, published a day after the headline data, …
Shelter disinflation adds to case for September rate cut Fed officials back September rate cut In comments ahead of the pre-July FOMC blackout that begins this weekend, Fed officials appeared open to a September rate cut. On Monday, Chair Jerome Powell …
We expect Japan’s stock market to continue to struggle in yen terms, but to fare better in US dollar terms over the rest of the year. Asian equities have succumbed to the sell-off in global tech stocks this week. But in Japan’s case, the strengthening yen …
The global IT outages affecting Windows software are causing huge temporary disruption to certain sectors including travel and healthcare, but while things are still very uncertain we do not anticipate a major macroeconomic or financial market impact at …
Argentina: falling back into old habits? While it was a good week for Argentine football – the Albiceleste won the Copa America for a second consecutive time – the opposite was the case for Argentine financial assets. Sovereign dollar bonds and the Merval …
The weaker-than-expected economic activity data for China in Q2 weighed on industrial metals prices early in the week. The mood was further darkened by the lack of any specific stimulus announcements at the Third Plenum and resulted in most industrial …
The detailed breakdown of June inflation data, released this week, confirmed that the headline rate ticked down to 2.5% in June and that services inflation was unchanged at 4.1%. We, and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, had thought that services inflation …
Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November. What are the implications for economies and markets if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to bring the two-and-a-half year old conflict to a …
Cracks in consumption getting larger After a brief rebound in April, the renewed fall in retail sales volumes in May suggests that consumption growth is weakening again. We estimate that sales volumes fell by around 1% annualised in the second quarter, …
Given the UK recently got much closer to the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year than is acknowledged, you might think that the Planning and Infrastructure Bill announced in the King’s Speech this week would be enough to get new home …
External positions in good health ... Romania aside Balance of payments data released across the region this week showed that current account positions generally deteriorated in May. Poland recorded a monthly deficit of €63m, while Czechia had an external …
Slowdown in growth over the coming quarters The highlight of the coming week is the publication of the first estimate of Korean GDP growth for Q2. Korea’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year, with growth hitting 1.3% q/q, which …
After a roller-coaster ride over the past couple of years, we think euro-zone retail sales are likely to rise gradually in the coming quarters. Consumption has recovered a long way following the disruption caused by the pandemic and the energy price …
Full Budget a key test for new government For India watchers, the Union Budget announcement on Tuesday 23 rd July will be one of the key economic events this year. In election years, the Union Budget takes place later than normal and often contains new …
Sales surprisingly weak given supportive backdrop The unexpectedly large fall in retail sales in June reversed the jump in May, and suggests that rising real incomes and improving sentiment have so far failed to translate into a significant increase in …
Mof intervenes again All signs are that Japan’s government sold US dollars to support the yen on Thursday and Friday last week. Bank of Japan data suggest that the intervention was a bit smaller than previous ones, perhaps because the yen was already …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Limited wiggle room for the new Chancellor June’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that public borrowing is on track to come in a little higher than the OBR’s …
China’s bond market seems to be caught between the country’s slowing economy and the PBOC’s desire to push long-end yields higher. The announcements from the Third Plenum this week probably won’t help the central bank, and we still think yields will fall …
GDP growth accelerated sharply the second quarter but, with a jump in inflation set to curtail consumer spending and the boost from tourism likely to fade, we still expect a sharp slowdown in the coming quarters. According to the advanced estimate …
A policy pivot is imminent If the RBNZ had any doubts that it had broken the back of inflation, they will have been quashed by the slew of weaker-than-expected data releases this week. Accordingly, we’re bringing forward our forecast for the Bank’s first …
This website has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation will remain above target until early-2025 While the Bank of Japan will still see the July Tokyo CPI before its meeting later this month, the June nationwide figures …
The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% was of little surprise but there was increased optimism on the MPC that inflation is moving towards the 4.5% mid-point of the target and that inflation expectations are …
18th July 2024
Investors’ expectations for ECB rate cuts have not changed much over recent months and today’s meeting did little to change that. Instead, euro-zone assets have been influenced more by French politics of late; and while contagion concerns have eased, we …
