The results of India’s multi-week general election on 4th June aren’t expected to hold many surprises about the country’s next government, with polls suggesting Narendra Modi will win an unprecedented third term. But what influence could this election …
22nd May 2024
After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC meeting is likely to be a close call and if the group (led …
Inflation eases, but rate cuts still some way off South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased further to 5.2% y/y in April but the Reserve Bank will want to see more evidence that inflation and, crucially, inflation expectations are coming under control …
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024) …
Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest that it has picked up further in most countries in Q2. With inflation likely to rise (or stay) above central banks’ targets in the second half of this year, the …
BI on hold, cuts by year-end Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%) and the comments from the press conference suggest this marks the end of the tightening cycle. Following April surprise hike, today’s decision came as no …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Limited scope for tax cuts April’s public finances figures got the new 2024/25 fiscal year off to a shaky start and cast further doubt on the Chancellor’s ability to unveil big …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for UK inflation and interest rates in a 20-minute online briefing at 9.30am BST today. (Register here .) This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stickiness of services inflation makes …
Although it left rates unchanged at its meeting today, the RBNZ indicated that interest rates may have to stay higher for longer. However, we think the Bank is overstating the upside risks to the inflation outlook. Accordingly, we still think there’s a …
RBNZ signals rate cuts may have to wait Although the RBNZ suggested that there was a high bar for further policy tightening, the Committee stated that interest rates may have to remain at their current restrictive level well into 2025. In our view, the …
The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend that should continue over the coming quarters. However, it will be a while before policymakers can be confident that they have broken the back of inflation. Accordingly, we …
The sharp rise in Brazil’s goods exports and the widening of the trade surplus since 2019 have been a point of strength for the economy. But we think these will reverse course before long. This feeds into our below-consensus GDP growth forecasts and our …
21st May 2024
Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers over the last few days, we still expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed markets (DM) to fall over the next year or so. 10-year government bond yields across DMs have generally been …
The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow again. Zillow reports that apartment rents continued to …
Another large hike, MPC feels it is winning inflation battle The Central Bank of Nigeria delivered a larger-than-expected 150bp hike to its policy rate, to 26.25%, at its meeting today, reinforcing Governor Cardoso’s recent comments that officials will …
The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we believe that core inflation is on course to fall back to …
Easing in core inflation is being sustained The fourth consecutive 0.1% m/m average increase in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in April will give the Bank confidence that the further easing in core inflation is being sustained. That …
Easing cycle about to enter a slower phase The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast just 100bp …
The strong pick-up in Andean economies at the start of this year confirms that their painful rebalancing process has run its course. GDP growth will be stronger this year than last – unlike in Brazil and Mexico. Chile is likely to be a regional …
Some of the structural problems in China’s economy have their roots in its excessively high savings rate (and underconsumption). For many other EMs, savings rates are also a problem but for the opposite reason – they’re too low . This is particularly so …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction outlook is poor Euro-zone construction output rose slightly in March but we think the sector will struggle over the coming months. The 0.1% m/m rise in construction …
RBA is done tightening policy The RBA continued to tout the line that all options are on the table as far as its next move is concerned. However, we still expect the Bank’s next move to be down, not up. The minutes of the RBA’s May meeting confirmed that …
The US dollar has been on the back foot amid the renewed rally in “risky” assets. While we think US stocks will soon re-establish the lead among global equities, we doubt US equity outperformance would benefit the dollar much. After reaching a …
20th May 2024
India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data suggest that the strength of economic activity has continued through to the general election. Headline inflation is grinding back to the RBI’s 4% target …
The political turmoil in Vietnam, which has led to a number of key leaders being sacked from their posts, is undermining the country’s reputation for stability, which until now has been one of its key selling points to foreign investors. The political …
Future global macro markets leadership …
14th May 2024
A strong start to the year The 1.9% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q1 confirms that the economy is gathering momentum following a weak 2023 and has prompted us to revise up our (once above consensus) 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% (from 2.3%). It also …
The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power within Iran means that there is unlikely to be a major …
If there was any lingering doubt as to whether the ECB could cut rates ahead of the Fed, they have surely been extinguished by a series of recent remarks by central bankers. Speaking at an event in Amsterdam last week Klaas Knot, the head of the Dutch …
Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last year’s fortunes. While we expect the EM monetary …
Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry consolidation, productivity improvements running out of steam, and …
Whilst export values of the “New Three” fell for the sixth consecutive month in y/y terms in April, export volumes remained close to their record peak. Meanwhile, the sharp drop-off in China’s exports of solar panels to India following the re-tightening …
The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the election and its implications for economic policy and …
While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming quarters as real household incomes recover. Indeed, with inflation set to remain above the Bank’s 2% target this year and wage growth accelerating, we expect the …
Thailand’s economy rebounded in Q1 and we expect steady, if unspectacular, growth this year driven by a further rebound in tourism and strong government spending. The 1.1% q/q rise in Q1 GDP, following the 0.4% decline in Q4, was well above consensus …
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing addresses the White House announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods and what that signals about the direction of the global economic system. He …
17th May 2024
Economy running hot in Q1, inflation pressures build further The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is …
The US dollar has eased back in the wake of somewhat better news on US inflation this week, which has seen US interest rate expectations fall back a bit further. Between this week’s inflation news, the recent softening of activity figures (including this …
The further evidence of softer activity this week might not be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in June, but they add to our sense that rate cuts are coming very soon. Momentum fading going into Q2 The recent data suggest that …
At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. The slides from the event are available on our website . Across the …
Abinader again The Dominican Republic’s general election on Sunday is likely to buck Latin America’s anti-incumbency wave. Opinion polls point to current president Luis Abinader comfortably winning re-election. Indeed, some of the latest surveys put him …
New measures to support China’s property sector have brought more cheer to Chinese equities. But, while we continue to think they will fare well in the coming months, we ultimately expect them to lose ground to stocks elsewhere over the next year or so. …
The second consecutive monthly reduction in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 oil demand growth forecast this week further widened the wedge between the IEA’s and OPEC’s near-term outlooks. Against the backdrop of the recent falls in oil prices …
SA: NHI bill signals looser policy post-election South Africa’s President Ramaphosa approval of the controversial National Health Insurance (NHI) bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals …
The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating income. We aren’t too alarmed by either – slow Q1 …
New tariffs much ado about nothing The Biden administration’s announcement this week of an increase in tariffs on hi-tech & green-related goods imports from China will have little impact. The biggest change ostensibly was the announcement that the tariff …
Putin’s political shake-up and meeting with Xi There were two big developments in Russia this week. The first was the cabinet reshuffle, in which long-serving defence minister Sergei Shoigu was replaced by economist Andrei Belousov. A lot of ink has been …
