Inflation falls despite bread price hikes Egypt’s headline inflation slowed from 28.1% y/y in May to 27.5% y/y in June, the lowest outturn since the start of 2023. And this came in spite of the baladi bread price hike. Increases to electricity and fuel …
10th July 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation falls further than Norges Bank predicted The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the …
The recent rise in public spending and fall in revenues has sent the Indonesian government’s budget deficit veering towards the constitutional 3% of GDP limit. And it’s unclear how the president-elect will be able to enact his ambitious welfare plans …
Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have struggled. We expect this divergence to continue over …
RBNZ strikes some dovish notes Although it left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.50%, the RBNZ sounded rather dovish in its commentary. The Committee’s messaging gives us greater confidence that the Bank will commence its easing cycle in November. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Persistent overcapacity will keep inflation low Consumer price inflation edged down in June. Producer price deflation eased but this was entirely due to base effects. We still …
While there are tentative signs that Japan’s economy is becoming more dynamic, this has yet to produce significant improvements in aggregate productivity. We still think that a more meaningful pick-up in productivity growth will only happen towards the …
The legacy of the post-pandemic industrial construction boom is now being felt in rising supply across most markets. With the demand outlook stabilising, we think the evolution of supply will shape rental trends in the near term and that markets like …
9th July 2024
In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that yield differentials will play a much more important role …
The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with unemployment at a record low and wage growth picking up in Q1. …
Turkey’s economy has maintained strong external price competitiveness since the pandemic (mirrored by rapid export growth). But measures of competitiveness have shown a noticeable decline in the past year and will deteriorate further against a backdrop of …
Powell leaves all options open Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s opening statement for his congressional testimony today offers few clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts, with the key line that the Fed is still looking for “more good data” to …
We’ve reassessed our expectations for the start of Bank of England rate cuts in light of the latest UK CPI and employment data. Our UK team was online shortly after the latter report to brief clients on our latest forecasts and to answer their questions …
Inflation rise doesn’t rule out August rate cut The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a lot of …
Much of the strength of India’s external position over recent years can be explained by robust growth in its services exports, in particular its business process outsourcing (BPO) sector. The near-term outlook for the sector is bright. But the sector also …
The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very unlikely to be able to reduce the deficit as required …
8th July 2024
The budget deal struck by the governing coalition in Germany reduces the risk of the country being forced into early elections. But it does little to address Germany’s structural problems, in part because of the strict cap on borrowing imposed by the …
The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to be in a position to govern, the strong showing of the …
Brazil’s President Lula has renewed his attacks on the central bank and high interest rates in recent weeks, raising fears that there could be more political influence on monetary policy from next year after he has appointed three new Copom members. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Rates on hold amid elevated risks Israel’s central bank (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.50% as expected today and interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the time …
The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think US economic outperformance will translate into …
Rise in inflation makes pause in easing cycle likely The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We …
Elections in the UK and France over the past few days have produced radically different outcomes, with the centre-left Labour Party securing a landslide victory in the UK, but the vote in France ending in a hung parliament with a three-way split between …
A La Niña could bring with it favourable growing conditions for crops in South East Asia, and help to put downward pressure on food prices across the region. It adds to the reasons to think the upcoming rate-cutting cycle in the region will be more …
The Monthly Household Spending Indicator is often revised several months later so the plunge in spending in May won’t deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from hiking rates next month if inflation remains hot. According to the Monthly Household Spending …
Regular earnings growth will approach 3% While base pay will probably be revised down somewhat in the final estimate, the preliminary estimate showed it rising the most in three decades and we expect it to accelerate a bit further over coming months. The …
Left-wing coalition becomes biggest group as National Rally underperforms The exit polls for the second-round of France’s legislative election are certainly a surprise. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) appears to have become the biggest group in …
7th July 2024
We expect Treasury yields to fall a bit further, but we doubt that will lead to a weaker dollar. At first glance, the US Employment Report for June , released today, seemed to bring good news on the economic front, with a stronger-than-expected gain in …
5th July 2024
Trump now has clear lead Trump favourite to beat whomever Democrats pick Following Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, which appears to have hit his polling numbers and gone down badly with big donors, there is clearly now a good chance that he …
More evidence of softening in the US economy from data releases – notably, the ISM survey data and June’s employment report – weighed on US Treasury yields and left the greenback lower against most major currencies on the week. Otherwise, election-related …
There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in house prices. All that makes it more likely that the Bank …
With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much about the UK’s public debt. But there is little room for …
Chile’s economy losing momentum Having made a very strong start to the year , the latest activity data suggest that Chile’s economy struggled in Q2. The monthly activity index (Imacec) contracted by 0.4% m/m in May – the third consecutive monthly decline. …
After six weeks of intense discussion about what Labour would do if it won the election (for all our analysis, see here ), we are now there. We set out what Labour’s 174 seat majority means for the economy and the financial markets here and discussed the …
Hawks rule the roost Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central banks strengthen the view in our recent Outlook that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (Russia) and kept on hold for longer than most …
Ruto revisits fiscal plans After being forced to withdraw the 2024/25 Budget, Kenya’s President Ruto outlined new fiscal plans today that will go some way towards easing concerns among investors and the IMF. Protests in Kenya have rumbled on this week. …
Cracks in the labour market increase the urgency for more cuts The modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate to 6.4% in June raise the chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again this month, and makes us more …
Easing cycle underway, but expect it to be gradual Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle and …
The latest polls ahead of Sunday’s second round of French parliamentary elections suggest that the far-right National Rally (RN) will win the most seats but fall well short of an absolute majority. (See Chart 1.) This will make it very difficult to form a …
Payrolls beats, but rest of report adds to concerns Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and the …
This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics presents our Drop-In briefing to clients the morning after the UK general election. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing spoke to Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory and Ashley Webb from our UK …
Indonesia needs reform not tariffs Indonesia has become the latest country in Asia to announce measures to stem the flow of cheap imports from China. It is planning to impose tariffs of up to 200% on a range of products, including footwear, clothing, …
Hurricane Beryl puts oil and gas supply in peril While Hurricane Beryl took a tragic and heavy toll on communities and economies in the Caribbean this week, its impact on fossil fuel production in the Gulf of Mexico looks set to be relatively small. …
Final preparations are reportedly in place for Prime Minister Modi to travel to Moscow early next week to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This will be Modi’s first trip to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, though the two leaders did meet …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Retail sector probably past the worst Retail sales ticked up in May and we expect them to continue to rise gradually from here. The 0.1% m/m rise in retail sales in May was …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German industry still struggling The slump in German industrial production in May fully reverses the increase in output at the start of the year and suggests that German industry …
A strong case for an August hold The minutes of the RBA’s June meeting revealed that the Board hasn’t yet shut the door on another rate hike. In our view, the Bank’s tightening bias is not unwarranted. After all, data published this week showed that …
House prices slip back in Q2 As the first economic data release under a Labour government since 2010, the decline in Halifax house prices in June meant that Labour’s tenure got off to a slightly downbeat start. However, while we expect house prices to …
We’re holding a 20-minute online briefing today (9.30am BST 5 th July) to discuss what a Labour government means for the economy and the financial markets. (Register here .) The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour …
