Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Regulatory changes won’t affect house price outlook The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched a consultation on changes to its macroprudential framework last week. In our view, the proposed tweaks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the housing... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The best days for US IG corporate bonds may soon be over We think the best days for US investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds will soon be over. 29th January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2023) The worsening in total returns to -3.0% q/q in Q4 was consistent with our expectations of bigger-than-average year-end markdowns. But the major takeaway was that the data and NCREIF’s release notes... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Geopolitics, shipping disruptions and supply chain risks 1707318000 Do maritime disruptions threaten a repeat of pandemic-era supply shocks? Should investors brace for an inflationary resurgence?
US Economics Focus Inflation: Mission accomplished? We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a... 26th January 2024 · 20 mins read
US Economics Weekly Immaculate disinflation almost complete It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Dec.) The December income and spending data confirm that core PCE inflation has been running at an annualised pace in line with the Fed’s 2% target for seven months now. This reiterates the message that... 26th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Monetary policy tanker slowly turning The outlook for monetary policy all depends on whether the Bank of Canada is willing to act based on where it thinks shelter inflation is heading, rather than its current rate. The Bank’s... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation risks may be on the horizon Big falls in the Ofgem utility price cap in April and July could mean that CPI inflation falls from 4.0% in December 2023 to just 0.3% by September. If the chances of inflation hovering only a bit... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will probably hike in April rather than March Most of the plunge in inflation in Tokyo in January was driven by one-off factors that the Bank of Japan is stripping out from its inflation gauges. However, the underlying trend in inflation... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tax cut revamp unlikely to prove inflationary Some commentators have raised concerns that the Australian government's changes to forthcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts could add fuel to the inflation fire. However, we remain sceptical, given that... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) The Q4 RICS survey suggested that occupier and investment sentiment remained pessimistic in Q4. We expect sentiment will be subdued in at least the first half of 2024, with credit conditions staying... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q1 2024) London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend set to intensify A reversal of the earlier boost from unseasonably mild December weather probably weighed on non-farm payroll growth in January. We expect a more muted 150,000 increase. The annual benchmark revisions... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
