Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: raising oil output will be a long journey The reported deal that is close to being reached to lift US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in return for competitive elections would help to raise the country’s oil output from very depressed... 16th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for weakest GDP growth in the Gulf this year Saudi Arabia’s economy is in a recession and, with oil output cuts extended until the end of this year at least, GDP will contract further. We think that the economy will shrink by 1.3% this year... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland's election: opposition on track for victory The exit poll from Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday suggests that the incumbent PiS will fall short of forming a majority and that the pro-EU opposition will be able to form a coalition... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Global risks and the outlook for EM dollar sovereign bonds We think the macroeconomic environment will continue to play the key role in the outlook for emerging markets (EM) dollar-denominated sovereign bonds this year and next. Despite country-specific risks... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Four points on the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict There remain enormous uncertainties about how the war between Israel and Hamas will develop. Israel's economy has proven resilient to conflicts in the past, but its military efforts in Gaza this time... 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China’s AI chip challenge The US government appears to be about to tighten the controls that it brought in a year ago on China's access to cutting-edge chips. One consequence will be that Chinese firms will find it harder to... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment growth shows signs of softening Investment growth held up well in the first half of the year but there are signs that it is entering a softer patch. Meanwhile, despite the encouraging inflation data from September, the RBI is... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Merchandise Trade (Sep.) China’s export values continued to contract year-on-year in September. But to the extent that foreign demand has cooled recently, it is being reflected in export prices rather than export volumes... 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) PPI deflation continued to ease in September. CPI inflation edged down, but core inflation remained at a six-month high, with services inflation staying at its highest in 19 months. We expect... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM large cap underperformance may end soon Large-capitalisation (large-cap) stocks in emerging markets (EMs) have markedly underperformed their smaller counterparts this year, sharply contrasting with the relative performance of large- and... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Industry no offset for slump in property credit demand An increase in lending to other parts of China’s economy has provided a counter-balance to the slump in credit demand that was triggered by the property crisis, but still only a partial one. 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How will the Israel-Gaza conflict affect the rest of MENA? The outbreak of conflict between Hamas and Israel this week has not yet spilled over into the wider Middle East and North Africa. But the situation is in flux and, if Iran were to be pulled into the... 12th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a modest 0.3% m/m rise in output in August as another jump in construction output more than offset renewed weakness in manufacturing. But more timely indicators... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation dropped back sharply to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in September. But the central bank is unlikely to shift away from its hawkish rhetoric for as long as there... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances worsen ahead of MTBPS The continued deterioration in South Africa’s budget position in recent months leaves Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana facing an uphill challenge to reassure investors at November’s Medium Term... 12th October 2023 · 6 mins read