China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial vulnerabilities lurking in a handful of EMs Financial risks generally look quite low in most major EMs as current account deficits have narrowed this year and banking sectors remain in strong shape. But there are some areas of weakness... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB entering the second phase of the easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered another 100bp interest rate cut (to 13.00%) and simplified its monetary policy toolkit at today’s meeting, paving the way for the second phase of the easing... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the top of its interest rate corridor, by 250bp, today is a first step in what is likely to be a shift in the monetary policy framework that will... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 & Copom Minutes (September 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 5.0% y/y in the first half of September, taken together with the more cautious tone of the minutes to last week’s central bank meeting, supports our view that the... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth prospects for 2024 improving After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 25th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s services inflation, forecast changes Even though Brazil's central bank gave a clear signal this week that it will cut interest rates in 50bp steps, there are still suggestions that easing core inflation might prompt the central bank to... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-Ukraine dispute, Romania's fiscal reforms Poland’s announcement this week that it would no longer supply weapons to Ukraine doesn't pose an immediate threat to Ukraine’s war effort, but cracks in support are clearly emerging across the region... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in a little weaker than expected at 4.4% y/y in the first half of September while services inflation remained elevated. Coming alongside strong wage growth and... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although EM growth held up well in H1, growth will disappoint over the coming quarters... 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Foreigners staying away, consumers perking up When officials launched the “Invest in China” campaign in March, they had hoped 2023 would be the year in which foreign investment came roaring back, supported by the removal of COVID restrictions... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index inclusion to boost pride more than inflows On its own, the inclusion of India’s government bonds into JP Morgan's GBI-EM Global Diversified Index is unlikely to make a great deal of difference to local yields. But the outlook for domestic and... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover... 21st September 2023 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s presidential election, GCC debt, Morocco-IMF Speculation is mounting that Egypt may bring forward its presidential election, which would go some way towards explaining policy paralysis around the pound. If this persists and a de facto peg is... 21st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds and maintains hawkish rhetoric The South African Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold today at 8.25% and continued to emphasise that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, suggesting that it is in no rush to begin... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high carry currencies will reverse course Although high “carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have held on to most of their gains during the greenback’s recent rally, we still think the outperformance of these currencies is likely to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read