Emerging Markets Economics Update Weak EM PMIs suggest demand is waning Most EM manufacturing PMIs for October were weaker than expected, largely driven by sluggish domestic and external demand. This weakness has, at least, resulted in input and output price components... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to leave interest rates on hold again today, at 7.00%, was accompanied by communications which leave the chances of an interest rate cut at the next meeting... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The economic impact of AI in emerging markets The AI revolution will make EM income convergence – or “catch-up growth” – harder as richer economies are better equipped to deploy the technology on a wide scale. It poses a particular headwind to... 2nd November 2023 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCB to continue to cut in 50bp steps Brazil’s central bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 12.25%, at yesterday’s Copom meeting and signalled again that further similar reductions lie in store over the next few meetings. Even so... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russian retail sales continued to expand at a strong clip in September, but industrial production growth was less impressive. Higher interest rates and inflation will weigh on activity in the coming... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update War and Israel’s economy: lessons from history One question we have received frequently from clients is what lessons Israel’s previous wars offer when thinking about the effects on its economy from the conflict today. While no two events are the... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Godonwanga doubles down on austerity South Africa’s finance minister reaffirmed his commitment to fiscal consolidation in today’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) but, even so, debt is now projected to peak at a much higher... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Five takeaways from the Financial Work Conference China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This... 1st November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why has FDI into emerging economies slumped? There has been a broad-based fall in foreign direct investment flows into the emerging world that, outside China, is mostly the result of a slowdown in global growth. FDI flows should stabilise over... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial sectors in Turkey and Czechia suffered from weak... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The manufacturing PMI survey for October suggests that activity lost some momentum at the start in Q4. We think that the sector will continue to slow over the coming months as the impact of higher... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 2023, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the recession deepened in Q3, with GDP contracting by 3.9% q/q, after the Kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut and the non... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct. Flash Estimate) The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy largely treaded water in Q3, underperforming most expectations. A jump in investment and a pick-up in government spending barely offset further struggles in the trade logistics... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read