Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov. 23) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate rose a touch, from 1.6% y/y in October to 1.7% y/y in November, which is still low by the standards of the past two years. And we think disinflation will resume... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2023) The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to lower the Selic rate by 50bp, to 11.75%, was slightly more dovish than the last one from November. But not enough has changed to... 13th December 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 13th December 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: positive first steps but more therapy needed The economic reform measures announced yesterday by Argentina’s Economy Minister Luis Caputo, including a large devaluation of the peso and fiscal tightening, mark a clear change in policymaking from... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Another year of sluggish growth Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid... 13th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that economy continued to struggle at the start of Q4. But we think that a combination of easing electricity outages and less restrictive fiscal... 13th December 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Broad credit growth continued to rise in November thanks to a pick-up in government bond issuance, but it still came in below expectations. We think further policy support is on the way, but this is... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate dropped back to a slightly lower-than-expected 5.5% y/y in November, but the fresh rise in core inflation reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank is unlikely... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging Paths Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks an unusually large variation in prospects at a country level. Many of the EMs that fared... 12th December 2023 · 27 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline consumer price inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.6% y/y in November amid a renewed rise in food price inflation and the timely daily data point to a further uptick in December. This... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (November 2023) The small fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in November, to 4.7% y/y, makes another 50bp interest rate cut (to 11.75%) at tomorrow’s central bank meeting a certainty. But with inflation still... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Czech inflation to 7.3% y/y in November means that the start of a monetary easing cycle at next week’s policy meeting is still very much a close call. But at this stage we think it’s most... 11th December 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. The main culprit continues to be food and energy prices – the rate of core inflation held steady and remains positive. Services inflation, the... 11th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation to 7.5% y/y in November is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months as the economy continues to overheat. We think this CPI release supports the... 8th December 2023 · 2 mins read
