China Economics Update Why is China’s commodities demand so strong? China’s recent commodity demand has been stronger than might have been expected given the weakness of its economy and commodity-intensive property sector in particular. This partly reflects a step-up... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in September will concern policymakers at the central bank and suggests that price pressures are now well and truly building in the... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland's election: a fork in the road The outcome of Poland’s parliamentary election this Sunday will likely have a key bearing on the direction of economic policy, Poland’s relationship with the EU and support for Ukraine in the coming... 11th October 2023 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s tight labour market continues to feed inflation Tightness in Mexico’s labour market continues to fuel wage pressures, with real wages now rising at their fastest pace since the early 2000s. But this isn’t being matched by productivity growth and... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher bond yields and the risks for EMs We’ve long argued that EMs were well placed to weather the Fed’s tightening cycle and episodes of rising US Treasury yields – and that has largely been borne out. And, as it happens, the latest sell... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (September 2023) The further rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.2% y/y probably marks the peak in this mini-inflation cycle and the headline rate should fall back again in the coming months, allowing the central bank to... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Aug.) The m/m falls in Turkish retail sales and industrial production in August provided the first clear signs that economic activity has started to soften following the policy U-turn earlier this year... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2023) Flows out of EM bonds and equity markets have intensified in recent weeks amid the sell-off in global bond markets, and an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Gaza would exacerbate this... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at Egypt’s external position Despite a marked improvement in Egypt’s current account deficit, the pound’s de-facto peg is deterring critical capital inflows and adding to concerns over large external financing needs. A fresh... 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up from 37.4% y/y in August to a fresh multi-decade high of 38.0% y/y in September but we think that, even with another devaluation of the pound on the horizon... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Czech inflation in September, to 6.9% y/y, increases the chance of policymakers kickstarting a monetary easing cycle at their next meeting in November. We remain... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness not a major macro concern The rupee has been hovering close to record lows this week amid the sell-off in global bond markets. But the good news is that the macroeconomic impact of a weakening rupee is limited. Meanwhile, the... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC has CNH on a leash, domestic tourism picks up PBOC intervention in Hong Kong kept the offshore renminbi largely stable against the dollar this week even as US yields jumped. This lowers the chance of a large adjustment to the daily fixing rate... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI stands firm in fight against inflation The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in inflation. Indeed, it even raised the possibility of open-market bond... 6th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Oct.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in headline inflation. There is still a significant risk of the easing... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read