Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding what policies president-elect Donald Trump will enact during his second term, there is a temptation to read a lot into his Cabinet nominations, but we would caution against that. Following his comprehensive election victory this is Trump’s world, while the rest of us, including his cabinet, just live in it. We still expect Trump to move relatively quickly next year to impose tariffs and immigration curbs. We don’t expect any major fiscal stimulus. We do expect the coming fiscal cliff to be avoided, with an extension of the original Trump tax cuts, but any tax cuts above and beyond that will be largely offset by spending cuts.
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