The 0.6% m/m falls in retail sales and manufacturing output in November suggest that the economy has lost some serious momentum, with the resilience of consumers to much higher interest rates starting to crumble. Solid gains in previous months mean real consumption growth should still be strong in the fourth quarter as a whole, but we expect the economy to slip into a mild recession in the first half of next year as the Fed’s relentless hawkishness takes its toll.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services