The failure of the Chinese economy to recover promptly from the measures put in place to contain the coronavirus means that world demand growth will be softer than we had anticipated this year, but probably a bit stronger next year. As a result, we have downgraded our 2020 UK GDP growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.8% and upgraded our 2021 forecast from 1.8% to 2.0%. A widespread outbreak in Europe, the US, and the UK remains a risk to our forecast.
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