FX Markets
Our FX markets coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and outlooks for global currency markets. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future outlooks for exchange rates and financial dynamics.
A service for investors who are either managing risk, or who are looking to enhance their returns by actively taking on foreign exchange risk, FX Markets offers in-depth coverage of more than 30 advanced and emerging market currencies, focusing on the underlying macroeconomic drivers of foreign exchange markets.
The subscription to this service includes 2-3 emailed publications a week, access to our online research archive and our economists, and the opportunity to attend our conferences, forums and webinars.
- Timely, clear and concise research.
- Unique, independent forecasts.
- Rapid responses, concise summations and detailed analysis.
What's the outlook for FX?
Explore and download our forecasts for major DM and EM crosses via this interactive dashboard
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Key Forecasts
|
2024 |
2025 |
2024 |
2025 |
||
|
DXY |
106.7 |
98.3 |
USD/CNY |
7.15 |
7.00 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.05 |
1.15 |
USD/INR |
82.0 |
78.0 |
|
USD/JPY |
145 |
135 |
USD/BRL |
5.20 |
5.30 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.20 |
1.30 |
USD/MXN |
19.00 |
20.00 |
|
USD/CAD |
1.40 |
1.38 |
USD/ZAR |
20.00 |
20.50 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.66 |
0.70 |
Key Calls
- We continue to think that the yen will rebound against the dollar and other major currencies as bond yields in the US and elsewhere fall back over the coming year.
- The Norwegian krone remains substantially undervalued by our estimates, so we expect the krone to strengthen against most other G10 currencies over the medium term.
- We think sterling will underperform other European G10 currencies as interest rate expectations continue to fall back more in the UK than elsewhere, and sterling’s relatively high valuation proves a headwind.
- We forecast currencies in Emerging Asia, in aggregate, to outperform other major EM currencies we track due to generally low valuations and a global backdrop of falling bond yields.
- We expect the Mexican peso to fall sharply given the currency’s overvaluation, stretched positioning, and falling carry. We suspect slowing economic growth in the US may be the catalyst for depreciation.
- By contrast, we think the Chilean peso is likely to extend its rebound on the back of rising copper prices and a strong economic recovery over the coming quarters.
All FX Markets Coverage
Featured Economists
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John Higgins
Chief Markets Economist
John Higgins is Capital Economics’ Chief Markets Economist, with overall responsibility for our Capital Daily, Global Markets, Asset Allocation and FX Markets services. Prior to joining the company in 2008, he worked at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, where he was Senior Economist covering the euro area, and before that at Nomura International plc in London, where he was Head of Economic and Credit Research within the fixed income division. John is a graduate of the University of Exeter.
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Jonas Goltermann
Deputy Chief Markets Economist
Jonas Goltermann is the Deputy Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics and heads up the FX Markets service. Jonas joined Capital Economics in 2019 from ING Wholesale Banking, where he worked in the Global Macro Research team. Before that, he worked as an economist at the Bank of England and the UK government’s Department for International Development. He holds degrees from Northwestern University, the University of Edinburgh, and the College of Europe.
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Thomas Mathews
Head of Markets, Asia Pacific
Thomas Mathews is Head of Markets, Asia Pacific focusing on bonds and equities as part of our Global Markets Service. Prior to joining Capital Economics in 2020 he worked at the Reserve Bank of Australia, in both financial markets and economics departments. Thomas holds a Master’s degree in economics from the London School of Economics, and undergraduate qualifications in economics, mathematics and philosophy.
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Hubert de Barochez
Senior Markets Economist
Hubert de Barochez is a Senior Economist in the Global Markets team. Prior to joining Capital Economics, he worked as economic policy analyst at MEDEF, the main business organisation in France, and as macroeconomist at BNP Paribas. Hubert holds master's degrees in economics, finance, and engineering.
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Diana Iovanel
Senior Markets Economist
Diana Iovanel is a Senior Economist in the Global Markets team at Capital Economics. She joined the firm in August 2022 from bfinance, where she worked in investment manager selection across asset classes, with a focus on equity and fixed income. Before that, she worked at East Capital Asset Management in equity research and, prior to that, at Russell Investments in multi-manager portfolio construction and equity manager research. She holds an M.Sc. in Economics from Stockholm School of Economics and a B.A. in Economics from University College London.
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James Reilly
Senior Markets Economist
James is a Senior Economist on our Markets desk, contributing primarily to the Asset Allocation and Capital Daily services. He joined Capital Economics in 2021, having previously worked within the multi-asset division of Schroders. James holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath.
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Shivaan Tandon
Markets Economist
Shivaan Tandon joined Capital Economics in September 2022 and is an Economist in the Global Markets team. Shivaan joins from the Economist Intelligence Unit, where he worked as an analyst covering a mix of West and East European Economies in the Country Analysis Unit. He has a BA in Public Policy(Economic Policy) from Duke University in the United States.
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Giulia Bellicoso
Markets Economist
Giulia Bellicoso joined the Graduate Training Program in September 2022 and now works within our Markets Team, based in London. Before joining the company, Giulia was working as an intern in the macroeconomics department of Euromobiliare Advisory SIM, a wealth management company based in Milan. She holds an undergraduate degree in International Economics and Finance and a master’s degree in Economic and Social Sciences from Bocconi university. While studying, she took part in the exchange program at the Yale-NUS college in Singapore, and she worked as a Research Assistant for the Bocconi finance research center, BAFFI CAREFIN. She speaks fluent Italian, Spanish and French.
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Ruben Gargallo Abargues
Assistant Economist
Ruben joined Capital Economics as an Assistant Economist on the graduate scheme in September 2023. He has a master’s degree in International Trade, Finance and Development from the Barcelona School of Economics. Previously, he worked at BBVA Research in the Digital Economy Unit.