The easing of sanctions on Iran will add to the supply of oil on world markets, but it should not be the game-changer for prices that some imagine. Instead, we think the more important factors will be fading worries about demand, particularly from China, and confirmation that non-OPEC supply is being capped by the sharp falls in prices since mid-2014. While the first rate hike from the Fed might trigger some fresh volatility, we expect a gradual recovery in the price of crude over the next few years.
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