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Growth in US oil production to remain sluggish

While we expect both drilling activity and oil production in the US to pick up slightly over the next year or so, we doubt it will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This should keep the Brent-WTI spread narrow but is unlikely to prevent oil prices from falling.
Adam Hoyes Assistant Economist
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not be sustainable if, as we think likely, Russia-related risks lead to higher crude prices later in the year.

10 August 2022

Energy Update

We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after US stocks data came out, which showed a rise in commercial stocks. But, we think investors might have missed the bigger picture, which is that stocks including government reserves fell for the 24th time this year.

3 August 2022

More from Adam Hoyes

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial crude stocks resumed their downward trend last week. With domestic output still well below pre-virus levels and product demand likely to rise, we think crude stocks will fall further from here.

28 July 2021

Energy Update

Sky-high European gas prices unlikely to be sustained

We think a reversal of the factors that have fuelled the recent surge in European natural gas prices, namely high LNG prices, constrained supply and depleted stocks, will bring prices back down to earth by early 2022. However, a strong economic rebound and a high carbon prices should prevent the price of natural gas returning to its 2020 lows.

20 July 2021

Commodities Update

China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further

China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as economic growth slows and activity in industry and construction cools.

13 July 2021
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