US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

There were hefty falls in both crude and petroleum product stocks, reflecting closed production capacity due to damage caused by Hurricane Ida. Implied gasoline demand also dropped back but it is impossible to know whether that reflected soft underlying demand or a lack of product owing to refinery closures.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
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OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.)

The rise in OPEC’s oil output fell well short of its target in August. And given a higher oil demand forecast for 2022, alongside growing external pressure, we think that the risks are tilting towards a faster relaxation of the group’s collective output cut in the year ahead.

13 September 2021

Energy Update

How long will coal and gas prices remain sky-high?

Coal and natural gas prices have soared around the world on the back of unseasonable weather and disruptions to supply. And even if the weather normalises and supply rebounds soon, we expect prices to remain high at least into the start of 2022 as stocks will still need to be rebuilt from their current lows. CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

10 September 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

There was a small draw in crude stocks last week, despite a dramatic drop in refinery utilisation as many refineries closed ahead of the Hurricane Ida. Notwithstanding, US gasoline demand remained strong, but we suspect that any boost to prices will be offset by softer Asian demand.

9 September 2021

More from Caroline Bain

Commodities Weekly Wrap

More of the same

Commodity markets have been relatively quiet over the last few weeks, with many prices trading in a narrow range. There are a few exceptions, most notably the prices of natural gas and coal, which have soared on the back of surging power demand and constrained supply. In contrast, oil has continued to hover around $70 per barrel, as concerns about demand prevent price gains and as OPEC+ supply restraint acts as a floor under prices. We think next week could be a bit directionless again. China is set to publish its monthly activity and spending data on Wednesday, which we expect to show further weakness. So far, commodity prices have been surprisingly sanguine about the economic downturn in China. But there are now clear signs that growth in the US and UK economies is also slowing, which underpins our view that most commodity prices will be falling as we move into 2022. CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

10 September 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

There was a small draw in crude stocks last week, despite a dramatic drop in refinery utilisation as many refineries closed ahead of the Hurricane Ida. Notwithstanding, US gasoline demand remained strong, but we suspect that any boost to prices will be offset by softer Asian demand.

9 September 2021

Commodities Economics Chart Book

Commodity prices on increasingly shaky ground

After sharp falls in the middle of the month, most commodity prices ended August broadly flat. However, we doubt it will be long before the downward pressure on prices intensifies again. After all, economic growth in most major economies now looks to be normalising following its surge from pandemic-induced lows, while growth in key commodity consumer China is entering into an outright decline. As a result, we continue to expect most commodity prices to fall in the remainder of this year.

3 September 2021
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