The 4.9% increase in Polish GDP over 2022 as a whole is consistent with a slowdown in growth to around 1.6% y/y in Q4 and a small quarterly decline in output of around 0.5% q/q, confirming that the economy slumped towards the end of the year. We think a further mild contraction is likely at the start of this year and our GDP forecast for 2023 (of 0.0%) is below consensus.
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